基于PLUS模型的徐州市生态系统服务价值多情景模拟研究

研究目的：分析2000—2020年徐州市生态系统服务价值变化规律,模拟多情景下徐州市2030年生态系统服务价值,为资源型城市转型发展提供参考。研究方法：当量因子法与PLUS模型。研究结果：（1）徐州市土地利用类型以耕地和建设用地为主,2000—2020年耕地面积持续下降,湿地与水体面积先减后增。（2）2000—2020年徐州市生态系统服务价值先减后增。（3）在三种情景模拟中,生态系统服务价值均出现损失,调节服务价值损失最大,耕地、草地面积减少是生态系统服务价值减少的重要原因。城镇发展情景下,建设用地侵占其他地类速度加快,生态系统服务价值下降趋势最为明显。生态保护情景下,生态系统服务价值损失量最少。研究结论：资源型城市在未来发展中应均衡经济发展与生态保护,同时加强规划引领,促进资源型城市绿色转型发展。     

The immigration issue

This article outlines the historical development of migration. It then discusses, with reference to two extreme scenarios, the future economic, religious and cultural effects of continued immigration.     

Applying the scenarios method to capture uncertainties of retail development in emerging markets

Retail development in emerging markets has been the result of key driving forces operating in a variety of ways leading to unpredictable and complex patterns of retail change. Existing theories of retail change remain inadequate for capturing the complexities inherent in emerging markets. In order to capture the impact of the complex interplay of driving forces on retail change in emerging markets, the authors adopted the scenario method which accepts structural uncertainty and allows for multiple interpretations of multiple futures for the phenomenon under study. An example case study is presented, where four possible visions for retail development in emerging markets in Asia are identified. The four scenarios are firstly, a scenario where Traditional Retailers dominate through mom and pop stores, a second one where Regional Retailers dominate, a third one where Discounted Retailers dominate and a fourth where Mixed Retailers gain predominance. The scenarios highlight that the politics of retailing give rise to new conventions of competition in emerging markets, which sustain the coexistence of a variety of retail formats in these markets. The scenarios approach demonstrates that the nature of consumer behaviour rooted in traditions and customs alongside rising aspirations sustains a dual model of retailing in emerging markets. The paper concludes with reflections for retail development theory and implications for practitioners and policy-makers.     

Moral Reflection Differences among Norwegian Business Students. A Presentation and Discussion of Findings

This article presents findings from aqualitative study among Norwegian businessstudents carried out in 1997. In this study thestudents were asked to write ¹/₃ to ³/₄ page essaysabout six moral dilemma scenarios inbusiness-life and in private-life contexts.After a summary of main results the responsesto two scenarios are examined more thoroughly,for identification of consequence vs. ruleorientation, personal vs. impersonal andnormative vs. non-normative orientation. In anext step, such response tendencies arecompared by gender and age (using comparableessays of managers as a point of reference).The conclusions focus on the potential use ofthe study for business ethics teaching.     

Neural networks for GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting

This report describes the forecasting model which was developed by team “4C” for the global energy forecasting competition 2017 (GEFCom2017), with some modifications added afterwards to improve its accuracy. The model is based on neural networks. Temperature scenarios obtained from historical data are used as inputs to the neural networks in order to create load scenarios, and these load scenarios are then transformed into quantiles. By using a feature selection approach that is based on a stepwise regression technique, a neural network based model is developed for each zone. Furthermore, a dynamic choice of the temperature scenarios is suggested. The feature selection and dynamic choice of the temperature scenarios can improve the quantile scores considerably, resulting in very accurate forecasts among the top teams.     

Choosing diverse sets of plausible scenarios in multidimensional exploratory futures techniques

Morphological analysis allows any number of dimensions to be retained when framing future conditions, and techniques within morphological analysis determine which combinations of those dimensions represent plausible futures. However, even a relatively low number of dimensions in future conditions can lead to hundreds or even thousands of plausible future scenarios. Creating highly diverse but conceivable visions of the future in which to explore decision-making, exploratory futures techniques rely on the selection of a small number of plausible scenarios from the larger set. In this paper we describe a new method for finding maximally diverse sets containing a small number of plausible scenarios from a multi-dimensional morphological analysis. It is based on a mathematical optimization of diversity that is robust to the uncertainty in the framing of future factors and states and in what stakeholders might consider diverse combinations of those factors and states. We also describe implementation of the method as a software tool and its performance in recent exploratory scenario development by CGIAR and partners for regional environmental change, food security and livelihoods.     

Narrative and quantitative analyses of workers’ compensation-covered injuries in short-haul vs. long-haul trucking

Trucking remains one of the most dangerous industries in the U.S. Study aims were to (1) identify differences in worker injury types; (2) describer typical injury scenarios; and (3) recommend injury control measures, in short-haul vs. long-haul trucking. Narrative text analyses of Kentucky short-haul and long-haul trucking workers' compensation first reports of injury were performed. A higher percentage of lifting and cranking injuries were identified in short-haul trucking compared with long-haul trucking that had a higher percentage of securing/opening/closing/adjusting injuries that involved tarping, trailer door handling, and cab slippage. In contrast, a higher proportion of short-haul trucking injury scenarios involved roadway departures and rear-end collisions. Study findings can be used to inform intrastate vs. interstate trucking injury prevention control strategies such as an enhanced driver safety training and safe freight handling in short-haul trucking, and tarping, trailer safety, and cab safety in long-haul trucking.     

Economic evaluation of ecosystem goods and services under different landscape management scenarios

Human-induced changes in the natural environment are affecting the provision of ecosystem goods and services (EGS). Land use plans rarely include the value of public ecosystem services such as climate regulation and biodiversity due to difficulties in valuing these services. In this study, we assessed total economic value for five important ecosystem goods and services under five future land-use scenarios using varying levels of costs, prices and discount rates. Results indicated that at higher discount rates normally applied to commercial activities, and assuming the current prices for goods and services, net present value (NPV) was highest for landscape management scenarios aimed at maximising agricultural production. Potential income from services such as carbon and biodiversity does not offset projected income lost from agriculture due to land-use changes. At higher discount rates, NPV was negative for the two scenarios aimed at enhancing the longer term ecological sustainability of the landscape. These results indicate that income from carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation would need to be considerably higher than current levels in order to justify focusing management of this landscape on ecological outcomes. At lower discount rates (at levels normally associated with public investments), the more ecologically appropriate ‘mosaic farming system’ had the highest NPV, indicating that this type of system might be attractive for investors interested in longer term return horizons or wider public benefits. Higher income from carbon or biodiversity, or increased return from timber by using high value tree species, could potentially make more ecologically appropriate systems profitable at higher discount rates.     

服装专业学生创新能力的培养

现代服装教育本身就是一个创新的过程,教师必须具有创新意识,改变以知识传授为中心的教学思路,以培养学生的创新意识和实践能力为目标,从教学思想到教学方式上,大胆突破,确立创新性教学原则。     

Globalisation,airline alliances and tourism: A strategic perspective

The forces driving globalisation have impelled the majority of international airlines to enter into strategic alliance arrangements. Strategic alliances have enabled airlines to work around structural problems of the industry, particularly foreign ownership restrictions, national regulatory constraints and constraints on building up networks. The history of alliances, to date, shows them to be changing and unstable. Alliances will probably continue to be a feature of the international airline industry, but the forms and membership of alliances may well change further in the future. Further deregulation and liberalisation of the industry could mean that alliances become less important in the future, if deregulation allows mergers and acquisitions of airlines across national borders. Two scenarios of possible futures are presented, with an assessment of their impacts on tourism, as an aid to strategic analysis.