Equity premium prediction and optimal portfolio decision with Bagging

We propose using the statistical method of Bagging to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample for multivariate regression models. Bagging allows for the flexible and efficient extraction of valuable informational content from a large set of predictors, leading to statistically and economically significant gains relative to not only the historical mean, but also other soft-threshold methods such as forecast combinations and shrinkage estimators in our empirical results. Furthermore, we find that the source of economic gains for Bagging primarily comes from the fact that it encourages the investor to actively manage portfolio by flexibly utilizing short selling or leveraging to better time the market following correctly prognosticated trends. However, other strategies such as forecast combinations keep the equity shares nearly fixed regardless of the predicted market prospect.     

General or central government? Empirical evidence on political cycles in budget composition using new data for OECD countries

Previous studies used general government data to examine whether national governments’ electoral motives and ideology influenced budget composition in OECD countries. General government data includes, however, the state and local level. Using new data for general and central government over the period 1995–2016, I reexamine political cycles in budget composition. The results suggest that, both at the general and central government level, leftwing governments spent more on education and less on public services than rightwing governments. Defense expenditure was somewhat lower under leftwing than rightwing governments and in election years; especially in federal states. Effects of government ideology on the individual expenditure categories are larger at the central than general government level. Scholars need to re-examine results on ideology-induced effects that have been derived from general government data where central government data should have been used.     

Fiscal rules and budget forecast errors of Italian municipalities

We study the impact of the domestic stability pact on the accuracy of budget forecasts of Italian municipalities. Identification of the causal effect exploits a quasi-natural experiment generated by the removal in 2001 of the fiscal restraints on budget decisions for municipalities with fewer than 5000 inhabitants and by stricter budgetary restrictions and severe penalties for noncompliers in 2002. We find that relaxing fiscal rules had a sizeable impact on budget forecast errors, especially in 2002. In fact, revenue (expenditure) forecast errors for municipalities with fewer than 5000 inhabitants became 26% (22%) larger than in the past.     

Political economy of eastern enlargement of the European Union: Budgetary costs and reforms in voting rules

Eastern European countries are likely to be major recipients of European Union (EU) funds after membership, which has created serious concern among incumbent members. The EU has devised reforms of budgetary rules to limit the funds that will flow to the East. Using a political economy model and drawing on the experience of previous enlargements, this paper argues that such pre-accession reforms will be ineffective because they can be reversed by a coalition of Eastern European countries after membership. The paper then estimates budgetary costs of eastern enlargement. A better way to resolve budgetary concerns is to reform voting rules rather than budgetary rules, before eastern enlargement.     

浅议投资估算在建筑工程中的重要性

投资估算在建筑工程中有着非常重要的指导意义,投资估算的准确性直接影响到项目的投资决策、工程设计方案、投资经济效益等多方面。就建设项目投资估算的重要性阐述了自己的观点。     

On Nudging: A Review of Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health,Wealth and Happiness by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein

This paper reviews the case for libertarian paternalism presented by Thaler and Sunstein in Nudge. Thaler and Sunstein argue that individuals’ preferences are often incoherent, making paternalism is unavoidable; however, paternalistic interventions should ‘nudge’ individuals without restricting their choices, and should nudge them towards what they would have chosen had they not been subject to specific limitations of rationality. I argue that the latter criterion provides inadequate guidance to nudgers. It is inescapably normative, and so allows nudgers’ conceptions of well‐being to override those of nudgees. Even if nudgees’ rationality were unbounded, their revealed preferences might still be incoherent.     

Antecedents of Budget Participation: Leadership Style,Information Asymmetry,and Evaluative Use of Budget

This study explores the causes or antecedents of budget participation to understand more fully the role of participation in the workplace. The study focuses on the reasons why superiors encourage the budget participation of their subordinates and draws upon several theoretical perspectives including leadership theory, agency theory and organizational justice. To examine the issues, a survey was administered to managers and supervisors in several companies. Results of path analysis suggest that superiors encourage subordinate participation when the superior's leadership style is considerate. This implies that budget participation may mediate the relation between leadership style and work outcomes. Results also suggest that superiors encourage participation when budget goals are used in the performance evaluation of subordinates, in which case, the study argues, the superiors encourage participation because of concerns about organizational justice. This finding implies that budget participation may mediate the relation between the evaluative use of budget and those work outcomes that prior research has linked to organizational justice. The proposed relation between information asymmetry and budget participation is not supported.     

The effect of cost management knowledge on the relationship between budgetary participation and managerial performance

This study investigates the relationship between budget participation (BP), cost management knowledge and managerial performance. It draws on relevant previous research in the theory of work performance and accounting to formulate the research questions. Eighty-three managers from Finnish companies participated in the study. Data were collected from the managers using a mail questionnaire. The results indicate that managers’ cost management knowledge, and especially the balanced perspective of cost management knowledge, moderates the effect of BP on self-perception of managerial performance. It was specifically found that the effect of BP on perceived managerial performance becomes more positive when managers’ cost management knowledge increases. High perception of managerial performance is obtained when both the BP and managers’ cost management knowledge are high. Our results suggest that organizations should improve the cost management knowledge of managers who participate in the budgeting process.     

An exploratory study of operational reasons to budget

Budgets are used widely but criticized, mainly for performance evaluation reasons. We find that organizations regard budgets as more important for planning and control than evaluation, thus proposing a rationale for their continued use irrespective of evaluation‐based criticisms. This finding is also important, because most extant budget research focuses on evaluation, suggesting a potential disconnect between budget research and practice. We also find that rolling forecasts are used in tandem with the annual budget in most organizations, and for the same reasons. This was unexpected, as coexistence suggests their adoption for different reasons.     

论预算会计收付实现制及其改革

客观评价我国预算会计收付实现制确认基础，探讨其局限，借鉴OECD国家预算会计权责发生制改革实践经验，结合我国实际，研究和探索我国预算会计如何运用权责发生制，是理论界和实务界面临的重要课题。