中国外债规模的多因素分析——基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法分析

本文建立VAR模型,借助1985～2010年的数据,运用脉冲响应函数及方差分解方法对影响我国外债的因素做出分析。     

Convenient estimators for the panel probit model: Further results

Bertschek and Lechner (1998) propose several variants of a GMM estimator based on the period specific regression functions for the panel probit model. The analysis is motivated by the complexity of maximum likelihood estimation and the possibly excessive amount of time involved in maximum simulated likelihood estimation. But, for applications of the size considered in their study, full likelihood estimation is actually straightforward, and resort to GMM estimation for convenience is unnecessary. In this note, we reconsider maximum likelihood based estimation of their panel probit model then examine some extensions which can exploit the heterogeneity contained in their panel data set. Empirical results are obtained using the data set employed in the earlier study. Helpful comments and suggestions by Irene Bertschek and Michael Lechner are gratefully acknowledged. This paper has also benefited from comments by two anonymous referees and from seminar participants at the Center for Health Economics at the University of York. Any remaining errors are the responsibility of the author.     

黑色旅游发展动力机制及“共生”模式研究——以汶川8.0级地震后的四川为例

黑色旅游是一种情感性的旅游,强调大众对旅游客体的价值判断和情感倾向。近年来,黑色旅游因其独特的吸引力而受到众多旅游者追捧,现已成为广义休闲旅游中的一个重要组成部分。在分析黑色旅游内涵的基础上,对黑色旅游的动力机制进行了解析。同时,引入共生理论,并以四川灾区为案例对黑色旅游的"共生"模式进行了研究。希望能唤起人们对黑色旅游的关注,促进人们更科学地认识黑色旅游及其内部规律,同时也期望对四川震后旅游业恢复重建工作有所启示。     

城市医院与社区卫生服务机构互动合作模式的选择——基于关系租金视角

随着我国新型两级医疗卫生服务体系的建立,构建两级医疗卫生服务体系间的良好互动体系,成为新型医疗卫生服务体系研究的焦点。本文从经济组织的关系租金视角,对城市医院与社区卫生服务机构的互动合作模式选择问题进行探索性研究。研究结论表明,建立长期关系导向的互动合作模式是最优模式,组建医院集团的互动合作模式,是一种帕累托改进结果。     

经济分析与预测模型中信息矩阵的病态问题分析

对常用的经济分析与预测模型中的线性回归、时间序列及灰色系统信息矩阵的病态问题进行了讨论。通过对统计资料附加干扰,基于最小二乘原理,得出每个模型中的每一参数与噪声的数值关系。指出在经济分析与预测模型的使用过程中,使用这类模型进行分析时必须考虑矩阵的病态问题,采取有效方法减轻或者消除信息矩阵的病态程度后方可使用这三种模型。     

GPS-RTK测量中坐标转换模型的适用性分析

随着GPS-RTK技术的不断发展,RTK测量坐标转换参数的精确程度对测量精度的好坏有至关重要的作用。文章详细分析了GPS-RTK测量中坐标转换参数求取过程中的各项模型,阐述了各个模型的适用性,同时说明了坐标转换参数中需要注意的问题。     

动态能力核心构成及其功效模型探究

动态能力是一种新的战略分析框架。研究人员和经理人的一个根本问题是理解动态能力,即重新配置资源以应对动荡环境的经营能力。动态能力一直被视为抽象。动态能力的三大核心构成要素分别是学习与吸收能力、协调整合能力与创新能力。     

高校中文系外国文学课程教学的困境与出路

我国高校中文系外国文学教学在教学观念、教学模式、教学方法、评价方式等方面存在许多问题,不能适应21世纪新形势下对人才培养的要求。只有更新观念、创新模式,才能走出困境,提高课堂教学质量。     

基于UG的滑动式车门运动模型建立

滑动式车门的运动主要沿着车身侧围运动。因此,滑动式车门的运动相对铰链式车门的运动复杂,这就给设计带来了很大困难。由于三维设计软件的发展,可以在设计阶段通过建立虚拟的运动模型来指导设计。文章介绍通过运用UG NX5.0软件来建立某款车型的滑动车门运动模型,并对其应用进行分析。     

An Application of an Integrated Transport Network– Multiregional CGE Model: a Framework for the Economic Analysis of Highway Projects

This paper develops a framework for the economic analysis of highway projects that is then used to estimate the dynamic economic effects of a highway project on the economic growth and the regional disparity in Korea. The framework is composed of a transport model and a multiregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The transport model measures a change in interregional shortest distances and the accessibility due to the highway project. The CGE model estimates the spatial economic effects of the project on GDP, the price, exports, and the regional distribution of wages and population. The simulation allows policy makers to determine which highway development deserves the priority for investment, based on consideration of economic growth and regional economic equity in the long run. The simulation found that all the highway projects have positive effects on GDP and export growth as well as regional equity in terms of wage and population.