Spatial patterns of poverty in Vietnam and their implications for policy

This study examines the geographic distribution of poverty in Vietnam by applying small area estimation methods to household budget data and population census data. The resulting district-level poverty estimates suggest that the incidence of poverty is highest in the remote northern and central highlands and lowest in the south-east and in large urban centres. However, mapping the density of poverty reveals that most poor people do not live in the poorest districts but in the two lowland deltas, where poverty incidence is intermediate. The policy implications of these findings present an important trade-off between targeting poor areas and poor people that can only be resolved with better information on the relative costs of delivering different programmes and their expected impact. Existing government estimates of poverty at the district level are not closely correlated with our poverty estimates, perhaps because of regional variation in their methods of collecting poverty data.     

Anthropogenic and topographic correlates of natural vegetation cover within agricultural landscape mosaics in Turkey

Natural vegetation enhances the value of agricultural landscapes for people and wildlife. However, the role of anthropogenic versus topographic factors in driving the extent of natural vegetation cover within agricultural lands at large spatial scales remains unexplored. I assessed the influence of anthropogenic and topographic variables on the extent of agricultural mosaics with high natural vegetation cover in the country of Turkey where a large extent of natural and semi-natural vegetation is maintained by traditional agriculture. GIS layers depicting human land use, elevation, slope, roads and population data were obtained and summarized at two spatial scales, within provinces and for 100 km² grid cells covering the country’s entire agricultural land area. Average farm size was also obtained at province level. Hierarchical Partitioning was conducted to determine the independent effect of anthropogenic and topographic variables on the variation in agriculture with high natural vegetation. Slope had the largest independent effect on the variation in the proportion of agricultural mosaic with high natural vegetation cover. The extent of agricultural and settlement area also explained much of the variation in natural vegetation across both grid cells and provinces. The proportion of natural vegetation increased as human population and road density decreased across grid cells and as average farm size decreased across provinces. These results suggest that while topography is the primary driver of natural vegetation cover within agricultural mosaics in Turkey, the pressures associated with urban development and agricultural industrialization may also influence the cultural and wildlife value of agricultural landscapes.     

Does high frequency algorithmic trading matter for non-AT investors?

The extant literature has typically measured the impact of high frequency algorithmic trading (HFT) on short term outcomes, in seconds or minutes. We focus on outcomes of concern for longer term non-algorithm investors. We find in some cases HFT increases volatility arising from news relating to fundamentals. Furthermore HFT is associated with the transmission of that volatility across industries, and that transmission is based on short term correlations. Finally, we find that the period since the introduction of algorithmic trading (AT) has seen increases in both the variances and covariances of return volatility in most industries. However increases in the variances has not been uniform in that it has fallen sharply in a few industries. The magnitudes are such that, overall, AT has coincided with reduced return volatility variance.     

Identifying the internal structure evolution of urban built-up land sprawl (UBLS) from a composite structure perspective: A case study of the Beijing metropolitan area,China

Differences in the internal composite structure during urban built-up land sprawl (UBLS) will generate different effects, and thus, a city’s spatial structure has important bearings on urban sustainability. This study investigates the spatial and temporal characteristics of the internal structure and allocation relationship of UBLS using multivariate spatial correlation and the Weaver-Tomas composite coefficient based on site data of granted built-up land parcels. Moreover, the composite structure evolution process of UBLS and its driving mechanism are examined in this study. The results reveal that the amount structure of the three types of UBLS (i.e. industrial land sprawl, residential land sprawl and commercial land sprawl) tended to be balanced during the study period. Following the transformation and upgrade of the urban industry structure, the overall composite structure of UBLS ranged from single residential land-use structure (Res.) to industrial-residential land-use structure (Ind.-Res.) In the early period of land marketization, the marketization land granting mechanism caused low spatial correlation between the various types of UBLS and a single composite structure, i.e. Res., single commercial land-use structure (Com.), and residential-commercial land-use structure (Res.-Com.). Subsequently, a dual-driving force including the market economy and government interventions caused a relatively high degree of spatial correlation and a multiple composite structure, i.e. Ind.-Res. and industrial-residential-commercial land-use structure (Ind.-Res.-Com.). However, the evolution characteristics of the composite structure in various regions illustrate some problems, such as the spatial isomorphism phenomenon of the composite structure and the dislocation of urban built-up land allocation. The urban internal built-up land spatial layout pattern is the embodiment of two dominant driving forces, the market and the government, interacting with each other according to natural and socioeconomic conditions. Therefore, we suggest that it is necessary to reform the future urban built-up land granting mechanism based on market guidance, and the composite structure of UBLS should be adjusted according to the regional function. The government should reinforce the macro-control of land-use planning for the dispersed granted land parcels so as to optimize the urban land-use structure.     

The eruption of Airbnb in tourist cities: Comparing spatial patterns of hotels and peer-to-peer accommodation in Barcelona

In recent years, what has become known as collaborative consumption has undergone rapid expansion through peer-to-peer (P2P) platforms. In the field of tourism, a particularly notable example is that of Airbnb. This article analyses the spatial patterns of Airbnb in Barcelona and compares them with hotels and sightseeing spots. New sources of data, such as Airbnb listings and geolocated photographs are used. Analysis of bivariate spatial autocorrelation reveals a close spatial relationship between Airbnb and hotels, with a marked centre-periphery pattern, although Airbnb predominates around the city's main hotel axis and hotels predominate in some peripheral areas of the city. Another interesting finding is that Airbnb capitalises more on the advantages of proximity to the city's main tourist attractions than does the hotel sector. Multiple regression analysis shows that the factors explaining location are also different for hotels and Airbnb. Finally, it was possible to detect those parts of the city that have seen the greatest increase in pressure from tourism related to Airbnb's recent expansion.     

Optimal harvesting of a spatial renewable resource

In this paper we investigate the optimal harvesting of a renewable natural resource. While in most standard approaches the resource is located at a single point, we allow the resource to be distributed spatially. Consequently, an agent who exploits the resource has to travel from one location to another. For a fixed planning horizon, we investigate the speed and the path of harvesting chosen by the agent. We show that the agent adjusts this speed so as to visit each location only once, even in the absence of travelling cost. Since the agent does not return to any location for a second harvest, it is optimal to fully deplete the resource upon arrival. A similar type of bang–bang solution results when we drop the assumption of a constant harvesting rate: allowing for a variable harvesting rate, the agent chooses to fully exploit the resource either in the last or in the first travelling period. A society interested in conserving some of the resource thus has to take measures to limit the exploitative behaviour of the agent.     

RIDGE ESTIMATORS FOR PROBIT REGRESSION: WITH AN APPLICATION TO LABOUR MARKET DATA

In this paper we propose ridge regression estimators for probit models since the commonly applied maximum likelihood (ML) method is sensitive to multicollinearity. An extensive Monte Carlo study is conducted where the performance of the ML method and the probit ridge regression (PRR) is investigated when the data are collinear. In the simulation study we evaluate a number of methods of estimating the ridge parameter k that have recently been developed for use in linear regression analysis. The results from the simulation study show that there is at least one group of the estimators of k that regularly has a lower mean squared error than the ML method for all different situations that have been evaluated. Finally, we show the benefit of the new method using the classical Dehejia and Wahba dataset which is based on a labour market experiment.     

How to overcome the implementation gap in ecosystem services? A user-friendly and inclusive tool for improved urban management

One of the main issues with the concept of ecosystem services is its absence on the ground in concrete operational decision-making contexts; that is, an implementation gap. In this study, we investigated if this gap could be overcome through the use of open-source data and free tools, and the adoption of a short-term participatory process. We tested these methods in the context of a project in the urban metropolitan area of Bordeaux (Communauté urbaine de Bordeaux: CUB) in France. The ecosystem services were defined using a participatory approach involving local stakeholders, and then selected scenarios were simulated to test the impact of various development or conservation plans. The study addressed three main questions: (1) Is it possible to adopt a simple methodological approach that overcomes the implementation gap through the development of a user-friendly and inclusive method? (2) What is the added value of a participatory approach? (3) With regards to four scenarios in this territory, what are the ES trends in the selected biophysical and monetary indicators, and will knowledge of these trends help planners to shape a sustainable trajectory for the territory?     

China’s megaregion policy: Performance evaluation framework,empirical findings and implications for spatial polycentric governance

Megaregion has emerged as a new dimension of global urbanization. A megaregion approach based on polycentric strategy is deemed to enhance regional economic competitiveness. Numerous studies have highlighted the economic benefits, celebrated the spill-over effects, and outlined the creative potentials of contemporary megaregion policies in different nations worldwide. However, further policy instruments require the knowledge about the achievement and failure of megaregion policies that seek for spatial, economic, social, and environmental efficiency and sustainability. This paper introduces China’s megaregion policy and proposes an analytical framework for performance evaluation from four principle domains (rational urban growth, economic development, social equity, environmental protection) at three levels (internal collaboration, integral development, and overall development). Using a case of the Megaregion around Hangzhou Bay (MAHB), we find very limited success of China’s megaregion policy. In particular, the megaregion policy only accomplishes the economic goal, and fails to achieve the goals of rational urban growth, environmental protection, and social equity. A series of mechanism based regressions are established and show that the implementation duration of megaregion policy: (1) associates positively with the economic growth; (2) relates negatively to social equity and urban rational growth; and (3) has no significant relationship with improved environmental quality. Institutional fragmentation, no unified spatial planning, and inadequate legislation at megaregional level are the underlying causes of the expected performances within the policy context of governance itself. We finally propose some possible solutions and discuss the implications for spatial polycentric governance. The demonstrated methodological framework can be applicable to other megaregions around the world. This paper is thus believed to provide some new insights for land use policy.     

Compliance of land cover changes with municipal land use planning: Evidence from the Lisbon metropolitan region (1990–2007)

In the past few decades, urbanisation has become a major phenomenon in European cities, thus representing one of the key human land cover changes with socio-economic and environmental impacts. In the Lisbon metropolitan region it is estimated that 17% of natural and farmland have been transformed into artificial areas. Since the end of 1990s, specific EU guidelines have been issued to contain urban sprawl and preserve agricultural land. Spatial planning in Portugal obviously is integrating these assumptions into the statutory land-use master plans. But what is the performance of this land use planning system regarding land cover evolution itself? Based on the Lisbon metropolitan region (LMR), one of the major areas of urban growth in Portugal, we examine spatio-temporal land cover patterns between 1990 and 2007 by integrating cross-matrix analysis, spatial metrics, and gradient analysis. Additionally, we overlay these land cover dynamics with municipal master plans that regulate land development in order to assess the compliance levels of this land-use regulatory system. Results indicate that: artificial areas are growing by coalescence and/or by scattered development along an urban–rural gradient; agricultural land is reducing and fragmentation is increasing to enlarge peri-urban spaces; there are high levels of conversion of agricultural land into urban land in protected areas, thus showing a lack of compliance to the land use regulatory system visible in the existing gaps between the original land-use assignments of the master plan and the actual developments.