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81.
A collection of large traders holds heterogeneous prior beliefs regarding market fundamentals. This gives them a motive to
engage in speculative trade with respect to market prices. Rather than assuming a particular institution or market for speculative
trade, we take a mechanism-design approach by attempting to characterize the mechanism that maximizes the traders’ gains from
speculative trade, subject to the incentive constraints that result from the traders’ ability to manipulate market prices.
Within a stylized market model, we show that this mechanism affects price volatility without destroying ex-post efficient
allocations. We also characterize the implementability of optimal speculative trade when the traders’ prior beliefs are private
information.
Financial support from the US-Israel Binational Science Foundation, Grant No. 2002298 is gratefully acknowledged. 相似文献
82.
Jesper Rangvid 《Open Economies Review》2007,18(4):453-477
This paper investigates the effects on production, consumption, and welfare that result from a temporary exchange-rate-based
(ERB) stabilization plan. The analysis is based on a dynamic optimizing model of a small open economy where real money is
assumed to be a factor that is used in the production of goods. The assumption of money serving a productive role makes the
model capable of generating a boom-bust cycle in output, as is often experienced during ERB stabilization plans. It is shown
that if the stabilization plan is expected not to be too short and/or the costs associated with the breakdown of the plan
are not too high, a temporary decrease in the rate of exchange rate devaluation will increase economic welfare. It is also
found that if some of the increase in output in the initial phase of the stabilization plan is saved for periods after the
plan has broken down, there is a greater chance that the ERB plan will increase economic welfare. On the other hand, if the
plan is not sufficiently credible at the outset, or there is not enough intertemporal transference of output, the stabilization
plan is likely to be harmful to economic welfare.
相似文献
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83.
Maria Luiza Falcão Silva Joaquim Pinto de Andrade Thomas S. Torrance 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(1-2):109-129
Recently a number of emerging economies, with high inflation and various kinds of imbalances have experienced what has come
to be referred to as dollarization– the phenomenon of currency substitution where the dollar gradually replaces the national currency in the performance of
its fundamental functions. The phenomenon is most commonly encountered as a component of the exchange-rate-based stabilization
programs implemented in a number of emerging economies in Latin America, Asia and the Middle East. The fundamental issue we
want to explore is whether this process forces the monetary authorities of emerging economies to act with their hands tied,
as if caught in a trap. It is argued that when the expansion of liquidity and domestic credit is determined by the quantity
of foreign-exchange reserves, an independent monetary policy vanishes and national sovereignty itself is shackled. Since this
scenario typically occurs in a world of increasing globalization of finance, this paper also discusses (with reference to
emerging economies) the risks and implications of capital inflows for macroeconomic policy autonomy, economic instability,
and vulnerability to external shocks. 相似文献
84.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2023,39(2):1005-1020
Electric load forecasting is a crucial part of business operations in the energy industry. Various load forecasting methods and techniques have been proposed and tested. With growing concerns about cybersecurity and malicious data manipulations, an emerging topic is to develop robust load forecasting models. In this paper, we propose a robust support vector regression (SVR) model to forecast the electricity demand under data integrity attacks. We first introduce a weight function to calculate the relative importance of each observation in the load history. We then construct a weighted quadratic surface SVR model. Some theoretical properties of the proposed model are derived. Extensive computational experiments are based on the publicly available data from Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012 and ISO New England. To imitate data integrity attacks, we have deliberately increased or decreased the historical load data. Finally, the computational results demonstrate better accuracy of the proposed robust model over other recently proposed robust models in the load forecasting literature. 相似文献
85.
在全球金融危机的背景下,国际投机资本的频繁流动严重影响了我国经济的稳定性.通过选取1996~2007年能够反映我国经济面临风险的12个指标,确定各自的权重,用KLR信号分析法实证论述近年来我国的风险变化情况,找出影响风险变化的重要指标.研究发现,国际投机资本这一潜在的危险正在加重,因此,可以在利用风险预警机制的同时加强对跨境资本流动的监管,以保证国民经济的均衡发展. 相似文献
86.
87.
Using unique city gambling conviction data in China as a proxy for a local speculative culture, we examine the impact of such a culture on stock price crash risk. We find that firms in regions with a stronger speculative culture are more likely to experience future stock price crash risk. The results are consistent after using 2SLS regression analysis (IV) and staggered difference-in-difference (DID) analysis to mitigate endogeneity concerns. Further analysis shows that overinvestment, excessive debt, accounting conservatism and charitable donations are the main channels through which local speculative culture affects stock price crash risk. We also find that the positive relationship between local speculative culture and stock price crash risk is more salient for small firms and firms with managers with a cultural backgrounds similar to the local culture. Our study implies that the local culture plays an important role in the practice of corporate governance. 相似文献