A State‐Price Volatility Index for China's Stock Market

This study derives a volatility index for China's stock market with similar properties to the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (the ‘VIX’). A long‐term benchmark of historic volatility expectations is here presented for China from 1996 to 2011, called the ‘China‐ State‐Price Volatility (SPV)’. Construction of this index involves the use of SPV methodology, using implied volatility calculated from options on the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index (HSCEI). Historic open–high–low–close volatility on the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) is also used to extend the benchmark prior to the availability of HSCEI options data. The China‐SPV successfully forecasts realised volatility for the Shanghai Stock Exchange. It also serves as a ‘fear gauge’ in that it monitors daily movements of the SHCI in the same way that the VIX monitors the S&P 500 index (Whaley, 2009). The China‐SPV evidences an increasing relation with the US market in terms of the dynamic correlation of levels and changes with the VIX since 2004.     

The evolution of State-Local balance sheets in the United States, 1953–2013

State and local debt in the United States more than doubled as a share of gross domestic product between 1953 and 2007. Using a historical accounting framework, we find that there is no straightforward relationship over time between state and local deficits and debt growth. We find that only 17 percent of the variation in aggregate state–local debt ratios comes from variation in the fiscal balance. This is especially true in the 1980s, the period of most rapid increase in state–local debt ratios. Before 1980, there were small but persistent deficits, but stable debt ratios. In the 1980s, state and local sectors shifted toward budget surpluses but saw rising debt ratios. This is explained by a faster pace of asset accumulation. Our results demonstrate the autonomy of balance sheet variables and suggest that changing debt ratios cannot be explained by real income and expenditure flows.     

A field experiment to explore the effects of detection and penalties communications and framing among Washington State retail firms

The Washington Department of Revenue facilitated a field experiment to explore opportunities to increase Use Tax and Business and Occupation (B&O) Tax compliance by retail industry firms. The experiment tested two enforcement strategies (actually put in place by the State of Washington): communication of noncompliance penalties and announcement of an enhanced detection initiative. Of special interest was whether the compliance initiatives would differentially influence firms in divergent financial positions (increasing versus decreasing revenues). Findings were consistent with the gain/loss framing concept of prospect theory: the elevated enforcement initiatives increased both actual reported Washington State Use taxes and B&O Taxes more for firms with declining revenues (loss frame) than for firms with raising revenues (gain frame). Historically the Use Tax has had a low rate of compliance while the B&O Tax has had a high rate of compliance; thus we tested two very different taxes. The results of the experiment suggest that revenue agencies with limited resources may benefit from focusing greater compliance enhancement efforts on firms with declining revenues as more tax dollars will be generated from these taxpayers. For tax researchers, this experiment demonstrates that gain/loss tax framing can occur in nature by means other than withholding.     

Urban expansion in contemporary China: What can we learn from a small town?

Rapid physical expansion of urban land use is widely observed in Chinese cities. Although there is a consensus that economic liberalization and decentralization of administrative responsibilities explain the urban changes, it is not clear whether or not actual economic and population growth is the only cause of urban expansion. By using a small town as a case study, this paper shows that urban expansion is a combined outcome of actual needs, planning preparations, profit-seeking, and more importantly, the approach used by local government to achieve economic ambitions. Findings show that local economic and demographic changes do contribute to land-use expansion, but a local development approach that uses urban expansion to improve the competitive edge of the locality plays a critical role. A pro-growth coalition consisting of top local government officials, state work-unit leaders, and developers, whose interests align for short-term gain in economic and political terms, guarantee the mobilization of resources for carrying out the rapid urban expansion, and a vision of the local economic success. These findings add in a new dimension that is not yet seen in the study of China's urban expansion.     

国铁企业市场化经营机制建设探讨

建立市场化经营机制是深化铁路改革的重要方向,也是提升企业核心竞争力的迫切需要。在分析国铁企业市场化经营现状及面临问题的基础上,提出国铁企业建立市场化经营机制的总体思路,即理顺国铁企业与政府部门、国铁企业与市场、国铁集团与所属企业3个方面的关系,从进一步落实国铁企业市场主体地位、建立铁路公益性运输补贴机制、加强铁路基础设施网络建设、提升铁路运输服务质量和水平、推进铁路客货运价市场化改革、着力提升国铁资本运作能力、推进国铁资本授权经营体制改革、完善国铁现代企业制度建设等方面阐述国铁企业建立市场化经营机制的重点任务,为深化铁路改革提供参考。     

State ownership and corporate performance: A quantile regression analysis of Chinese listed companies

This study assesses the impact of government shareholding on corporate performance using a sample of 643 non-financial companies listed on the Chinese stock exchanges. In view of the controversial empirical findings in the literature and the limitations of the least squares regressions, we adopt the method of quantile regression and report a robust and significant negative relation between government shareholding and corporate performance among, and only among, the more profitable firms. This new finding, which the conditional mean-focused regressions do not capture, suggests that while Chinese government still exerts influences on the performance of these partially privatized firms, the relationship parameter changes across quantiles of the distribution of performance variables.     

Southeast Asian capitalism: History,institutions, states,and firms

This paper examines the structures of capitalism in Southeast Asia. Following the lead of Gordon Redding and others, it argues that parallel to varieties of capitalism elsewhere, there are distinctive features to the Southeast Asian business system, but that institutions play a relatively large role compared to firm specific resources or industry structures. Historically, with the exception of Thailand all the countries in the region are former colonies. All including Thailand share a distinctive style of nationalism, and partly as a result of this, all are governed by states that claim to be strong and lay wide claims but whose capacities are low. Typical features of the region, particularly the roles of large business groups and the Chinese minority, also can be interpreted as a result of this history. One of the outcomes of the analysis is an extension of the varieties of capitalism approach along the dimensions of state capacity and state direction, and of the approach to the internationalizing firm along the dimensions of dynamic capacity and control of subsidiaries. A further outcome is a questioning of the traditional picture of indigenous Southeast Asian business people as lacking in entrepreneurial skills, or more broadly of Southeast Asian nations as lacking in entrepreneurial values. Rather, the past history of these countries has resulted in a set of structures that militate against successful entrepreneurial activity.

乡村精英的崛起与政治认同的获得——国家政权与乡村关系新形态的探讨

20世纪80年代以来,随着国家权力在乡村社会的收缩和市场经济的渗透为乡村经济和社会活动提供了空间、风险和机遇,一些有能力有闯劲的乡村精英因而崛起。这些崛起的乡村精英们有意愿带领乡邻一起走向富裕,因为这样不仅能提升他们在乡村社会的地位,也能为他们继续创造财富提供保障;而他们带动乡邻一起致富的意愿同样也与国家发展农村经济富裕农民的愿望相契合;同时农民不仅需要这些精英们为他们代言、反映他们的愿望和要求,也希望这些精英们利用他们的能力、财富、关系、见识等带领自己致富。由此这些精英通过选举真正成为乡村领导者,而他们的乡村领导者地位的获得也得到了国家的支持和认同。     

流动性约束下我国居民消费行为的二元结构与地区差异

本文构建了状态空间模型和跨省面板数据模型,就不确定性和流动性约束等对我国居民消费行为影响进行比较分析,结果表明:1978年以来,收入的不确定性对城镇居民消费行为的负面影响要大于农村居民;城镇居民面临的流动性约束相对小于农村居民;城镇居民面对利率的替代效应要大于收入效应,而农村居民与之相反。1995年以来,收入和支出的不确定性对我国居民整体消费行为的影响并不显著,但与东中部地区居民消费变动正相关;我国居民消费面临的流动约束整体来看并不严重,但中部地区居民相对而言面临更强的流动性约束。     

近年来我国国有企业改革研究综述

通过对近几年来关于国有企业改革的研究进行系统地梳理,明确了未来国有企业改革的研究方向和思路,以期对于进一步研究国有企业改革的相关问题做出理论铺垫。