关于状态空间方法中超参数估计的札记

章对状态空间方法中超参数估计的基本思想进行了论述,并对一般献中未详细证明的部分给出了证明,便于从事实际工作的统计工作和自学领会和掌握该模型。     

What do professional forecasters actually predict?

This paper studies what professional forecasters predict. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into trend, business cycle, and irregular components. We examine which components are captured by professional forecasters by regressing their forecasts on the estimated components extracted from both the spectral analysis and the state space model. For both decomposition methods, we find that, in the short run, the Survey of Professional Forecasters can predict almost all of the variation in the time series due to the trend and the business cycle, but that the forecasts contain little or no significant information about the variation in the irregular component.     

“Step into the Real Texas”: Associating and claiming state narrative in advertising and tourism brochures

Texas is one of the most popular states for tourists. Using quantitative and primarily qualitative methods, we analyzed how marketers of small cities and towns associate their place to four central components of the Texas state narrative – the flag, official and unofficial symbols, territory, and social–historical mythology – in advertising and tourism brochures in the years 2008–2010. We discovered that in parallel to the overuse of the “associating to well-known brand/narrative” strategy, marketers also invest efforts toward claiming the narrative. Thus our second goal was to discover which techniques were used in order to claim the state narrative. Using the state of Texas as an example may provide a test case for typology, associating and claiming state narratives in promotional materials.     

Growth-focused or profit-focused firms: Transitions toward profitable growth

Profitable growth is the most desirable state tourism and hospitality firm managers can hope to achieve. In reality, however, it is not easy for a tourism and hospitality firm to consistently grow and accumulate profits. In order to achieve profitable growth, some firms focus on sales growth while victimizing profits, while others concentrate on profits and hold off on growth. To better understand these strategies, this study investigated the growth state, profit state and transitions of restaurant firms. The findings of this study supported that profit-focused firms are more likely to achieve profitable growth than growth-focused firms. In addition, growth-focused firms with low liquidity had a higher likelihood of transitioning to a state of low growth and low profit in the short-term, and this liquidity effect was more serious for small firms in terms of long-term performance. Further, when profit-focused firms had few growth opportunities, large free cash flows increased the likelihood of transitioning to a state of low growth and low profit in the short-term. More detailed results are provided in this paper.     

论国有企业治理文化及其治理结构效应

企业治理文化是企业文化的有机组成部分,不同的治理文化会对企业治理结构产生不同的影响。本文在分析企业治理文化及其影响因素的基础上,着重探讨了国有企业治理文化及其治理结构效应,说明了加强国有企业治理结构建设,必须高度重视国有企业治理文化建设。     

States and economic growth: Capacity and constraints

State capacity has become one of the most discussed concepts in development economics and political economy. In this survey we argue that the study of economic history provides vital insights into the process through which modern states have acquired ‘state capacity’. By evaluating the process of state building across a range of different countries in Europe and Asia, we are able to ‘decompress’ the relationship between state capacity and economic growth. Our analysis emphasizes the variegated nature of the state building process. We focus on recent research that helps to elucidate the mechanisms that relate state capacity to economic growth.     

财政学中的国家观:分歧与比较——对当前财政基础理论的一点反思

当前的公共财政体系理应具备公共性,是毋庸置疑的。但学界却在如何理解财政的公共性问题上莫衷一是,通过分析和比较之后可以发现,不同观点的分歧与其背后的国家观有着某种必然的联系,而且貌似冲突和抵牾的国家观,其实代表了不同层次的理论抽象。一方面,我们需要根据被研究的问题进行取舍;另一方面,整个财政学理论体系不应该也不可能只建立在某一特定层次的国家观之上。而公共性之所以是财政与生俱来的本质属性,是因为国家作为一个行动主体的行为目标和模式使然,所以当我们从理论层面把握公共性的概念和实质之时,不能只局限于市场经济国家,需要放宽研究视野,至少必须正视中国以往的历史经验和基本规律。     

意识形态国家机器及其功能的实现方式——阿尔都塞意识形态实践图式的文本分析

借助马克思主义经典作家的国家理论，阿尔都塞制定了“意识形态国家机器”概念，从而拓展与细化了马克思关于上层建筑对经济基础作用方式的理论认知。通过对葛兰西文化领导权理论资源的接纳，阿尔都塞全面揭示了意识形态国家机器运作机制的辩证法。通过凸显资本主义条件下劳动力和生产关系“再生产”的经济学场景。阿尔都塞确立了意识形态国家机器运作的出场路径。通过引介弗洛伊德和拉康的精神分析范式，阿尔都塞细腻阐释了意识形态国家机器主体建构的微观机制。基于上述异质视域的有机接合，阿尔都塞建构了极具特色的意识形态实践图式和运作场景。     

Nested model comparison with structural equation approaches

Potential problems with the conventional nested model comparison procedure in the structural equation models context are discussed. It is argued that fixing parameter values might lead to creation of different unobservables in the nested model. A number of alternative ways of conducting model comparisons are reviewed and applied in a marketing example.