Is cognitive bias really present in analyst forecasts? The role of investor sentiment

This paper analyses four key markets within the European context. In this context, where the level of analyst coverage is lower than in the US setting, we aim to ascertain whether the origin of optimism in analyst forecasts in these markets is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack the explanatory power to account for a significant percentage of the relationship between market sentiment and future stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although regulation can reduce analyst optimism bias, the benefits are constrained by the fact that optimism bias is partly associated with cognitive bias.     

Psychological antecedents and risk on attitudes toward e-customization

Consumers can experience relatively low prices with the dramatic diffusion of online shopping even with customized products, which are commonly more expensive than regular products, due to unique functions of customized product order processes in online environments. This paper investigates how two psychological antecedents, (1) need for uniqueness and (2) status aspiration, can influence consumers' attitude with regard to forming procedures toward e-customized products and how perceived risk, another psychological factor, on purchasing e-customized products plays a role of moderating factor. A self-administered online survey of 321 Japanese consumers is conducted to examine a proposed conceptual model with Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The analysis using results indicates that the need for uniqueness directly impacts on attitude toward e-customized products while it mediates the effect of status aspiration. A multi-group analysis to test a moderating effect of the perceived risk on purchasing e-customized products highlights the significant effects of psychological factors. The result also provides potential guidelines to e-tailors on possibility of segmenting markets as well as promoting their customized products using these psychological criteria of their target consumers.     

当前企业人事档案管理的现状及对策研究

随着我国经济体制改革和人事制度改革的发展,企业人事档案管理工作出现了不少新情况。文章结合企业人事档案管理的工作实践,对当前企业人事档案管理工作的现状进行分析,并对进一步改革提出了相应对策。     

武汉市物流园区发展研究

随着我国国民经济的快速发展,物流业的需求不断增加,现代物流基础设施的建设步伐也逐年加快。物流园区作为物流业发展中形成的一个高级形式的物流节点,其规划建设不仅直接为物流企业获得规模效益和集聚效益,指导物流业发展过程中土地的有效控制和合理利用,而且与调整城市用地结构、减轻城市交通拥挤和环境压力息息相关。物流园区是物流业发展到一定阶段时产生的新兴物流管理方式,在日本、德国等发达国家已经得到了快速发展和认可。文中通过对国内外物流园区发展现状的分析与比较,得出了一些启示,并结合分析武汉市发展物流业的优势与问题,针对物流园区的建设情况给出了一些合理的建议。     

云南旅游电子商务现状及发展对策分析

旅游电子商务在云南省得到了快速的发展。本文对云南旅游电子商务发展的现状进行了初步的探讨,摸清了云南发展旅游电子商务的基础条件和存在的主要问题,并结合实际,提出云南加快旅游电子商务的对策建议。     

The impact of production offshoring on the skill composition of manufacturing firms: evidence from Italy

In this work we explore how the international outsourcing of production impacts the skill composition of employment within Italian manufacturing firms. In particular, our aim is to assess whether the choice to offshore production activities to cheap‐labour countries implies a bias in the employment of skilled workers relative to unskilled ones.

Using a balanced panel of firms covering the period 1995–2003, we set up a counterfactual analysis in which, by using a difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching estimator, we compare the dynamics of skill demand for treated and control firms while addressing the possible problem of selection bias.

Our results identify a ‘potential’ skill bias effect of production offshoring. In particular, we find that treated firms tend to show an upward shift in the skill ratio with respect to the counterfactual sample, but coefficients are not significantly different from zero. When we look at the elements of the skill ratio separately, we find that the skill bias is driven by a fall in the employment of production workers (blue collars), rather than by the increase in the employment of non‐production workers (white collars), thus providing further evidence on the unskilled labour‐saving nature of international outsourcing.     

Who votes for public environmental goods in California?: Evidence from a spatial analysis of voting for environmental ballot measures

Voting referenda provide direct evidence of the demand for public goods. A number of previous studies have used referenda to analyze the support for public environmental goods. These studies have used aggregate data from large jurisdictional units (usually counties) and summary income measures such as the mean or median, and have usually found that higher income areas offer greater support for environmental propositions. We examine environmental referenda voting in California using census block group data, spatial dependence controls, and detailed income distribution data. We find that household income has a negative marginal effect on environmental referenda voting for most of the income range when using census block data. In addition, controls for spatial dependence significantly reduce the magnitude of most coefficients. This suggests that OLS estimates of referenda determinants are biased. We also show that county level data may be subject to severe aggregation bias and might not be appropriate for referenda studies.     

Assessing cross-cultural marketing theory and research: A commentary essay

Cross-cultural research (CCR) is extremely important for advancing understanding of the range and limits of theoretical constructs and frameworks across different cultural contexts. CCR also provides an important understanding of the differences between countries and cultures. This commentary essay examines the review conducted by Engelen and Brettel (2010) and comments on shortcomings, as well as identifying areas where more needs to be done. A critical first step is to properly define the unit of analysis. This step is particularly critical as the concept of “national culture” is becoming increasingly less relevant and the appropriate culture unit for examination is often a smaller, more homogeneous grouping within a given geographic location. This view allows more meaningful inferences to be made and controls for possible contextual confounds, as well as providing a richer understanding of the limits of national culture in an increasingly global economy.     

数字偏好与股票收益异常——来自上海证券交易所的经验证据

本文研究股票代码对股票收益的影响。研究发现,由于数字偏好效应的存在,投资者刻意回避代码以“4”结尾的股票。在较长时间内,尾数是“4”的股票收益低于给定风险水平下的市场必要收益。但这一现象受到股市行情的影响,牛市行情时,投资者回避“4”的行为表现明显,而熊市行情时则会趋向消失。具体表现为：牛市行情下,“4”组合的资产收益小于给定风险水平下的市场必要收益,熊市行情则无此现象。本文从行为金融莹晶当磨时杖一仑蜃由市扬耳夔讲符T觎崧