1996-2005年中国农业剩余劳动力的估算——基于随机前沿模型的分析

本文采用随机前沿分析方法,利用省际面板数据对我国农业剩余劳动力的数量和比例进行了估算,并分析了剩余劳动力的变化趋势.根据本文的估算,1996年以来我国剩余劳动力没有明显的下降趋势, 目前我国农业剩余劳动力数量约为1亿人,约占全部农业劳动力的三分之一.农业剩余劳动力的变化与经济增长有着密切的联系,保持较快的经济增长速度,在非农部门创造更多就业机会,加快农业劳动力向其他部门的转移,是减少农业剩余劳动力的根本途径.     

亚洲发展中成员国服务贸易竞争力及影响因素分析

亚洲发展中成员国在发展中国家中有着举足轻重的地位,而其相对较强的服务贸易竞争力为亚洲进一步快速发展提供了契机。在理论分析影响服务贸易竞争力因素的基础上采取面板数据模型进行了实证分析,表明发展中成员国的服务贸易竞争力与经济增长、服务业水平、服务业基础设施水平、人力资本水平、政府财政支出规模正相关,与货物贸易水平和外商直接投资水平负相关,并据此提出了应对措施。     

资本结构行业差异及其影响因素的实证分析--来自我国上市公司的经验数据

通过对我国上市公司资本结构行业差异及其影响因素进行的实证分析发现,我国上市公司不同行业门类之间的资本结构具有显著性差异;同一行业的资本结构具有稳定性,资本结构行业间的差异具有稳定性;不同行业资本结构的影响因素是有差异的,同一因素对各行业的影响力度也不一样;从各假设条件的检验结果来看,有些假设在多数行业得到了证实,但也有一些假设被一定的经验数据所证伪或没有得到支持.     

干旱区农地流转影响因素的实证分析——基于新疆农户样本数据

我国干旱区的农村土地流转在全国来说相对较为缓慢。为研究其原因,本文以新疆北疆地区、东疆地区和南疆地区的389户农民的有效问卷数据为依据,通过建立Logit回归模型,对农地流转的影响因素进行了系统分析。结果表明,影响新疆农户农地转入意愿的主要因素是农业生产条件、家庭人口、农业收入、农业优惠政策等;影响转出意愿的主要因素是家庭人口、非农收入、农村劳动力转移、农村社会保障制度等。因此,要推进干旱区农地流转。必须从政策方面予以支持。     

全流通环境下中国银行业的市值评估——来自国内上市银行的经验数据

银行业的价值评估对于推进金融体制改革存在重要意义,本文从价值评估文献综述入手,建立了一个两步骤的统计学模型,首先通过因子分析得到影响银行价值的主要成分,然后通过多元线性回归检验银行规模、经营业绩和流动性对银行股票价格的影响,实证结果显示:股权分置改革并未如预想的那样对股票价格有明显影响,中国银行业主要盈利来自于存贷款利差收入。     

基于DEA方法的广东科技与金融结合效益评价

本文采用数据包络分析方法(DEA)对全国各省、市、自治区金融投入与科技产出结合的效益进行评价,并对DEA测评结果进行深入分析,发现影响广东科技与金融结合效益的主要原因是金融投入的结构与科技产出的阶段不相协调以及金融投入资源的管理效率较低,从而为广东探索科技与金融结合的路径与对策选择提供决策依据。     

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in Construction Schedule Risk Assessment

Construction project scheduling is one of the most critical factors for project success measurement.Not only for the project planning but for construction process management,the scheduling is the basic tool for communication between the owner and the project manager.By developing the schedule before the project starts,the owner knows in advance that the expected timeline of the project.By preparing construction process scheduling,the owner and general contractor can better manage the subcontractors,sub-trades progress,materials storage and deliveries,labors schedule and equipment set up which will eventually save time,money and hassle.Basically,Critical Path Method(CPM) is commonly used in the construction industry.CPM is a deterministic method that assumes that through the network,there is at least one path that determines the project duration and that the path is the critical path.CPM does not consider the uncertainty in the activities;rather it assumes that each activity can be finished in the given situation.Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) is a stochastic technique which is based on the assumption that the duration of a single activity can be described by a probability density function.PERT takes into account the uncertainty during the construction process and has been created out of the need to plan,schedule and control complex projects with many uncertainties.The PERT approach is stated in some books and papers,but there is no deep investigation on the application in the schedule risk assessment.This paper investigates the PERT work process and takes a valuable try on the construction schedule risk assessment by using case studies.The utilization in the estimate the construction liquidated damage with the uncertainties is performed,which also can be used in the insurance company to calculate the insurance premium.     

DEA APPLIED TO A GAUTENG SAMPLE OF PUBLIC HOSPITALS1

The research presented in this paper provides an analysis of the delivery of a few health care services by the public sector in Gauteng, South Africa. The data for the study was especially difficult to collect, suggesting the need for hospital level data information systems, as well as staff who are trained to analyze the information collected. The empirical results from the analysis suggest that services provided by small‐scale medical facilities waste fewer resources, while medical centres offering more technical services, such as surgeries, also appear to deliver medical services more efficiently.     

新疆支农贷款在新农村建设中的效益分析

自从西部大开发政策实施以来,新疆的支农贷款逐年增多,新疆农业与农村经济也取得了很大的成就,农业生产条件比以前明显改善,但其效益不佳。本文主要运用柯布—道格拉斯函数和相关系数模型对支农贷款在新疆社会主义新农村建设中的效益进行分析,并提出相关政策建议。     

流出人口与农村家庭户特征——基于流出地的分析

从迁出地(农村)角度出发,利用五普千分之一原始数据,以家庭户为基本分析单位,比较了有迁出人口和没有迁出人口的家庭户的部分特征差异,利用Logistic回归和负二项回归,分别分析家庭特征对人口迁出及迁出人数的影响作用。回答的问题是:什么样的家庭户才会有迁出人口。证明了所提出的假设:在以家庭或家族为经济活动单位的当今中国,个人的迁移行为,除受个人因素及社会经济因素的影响之外,家庭户的各种特征对人口迁移有着显著的影响作用。