实物期权在投资决策中的运用

本文通过引入实物期权的思想为投资决策评价,运用布莱克—舒尔斯和二叉树期权定价模型,给战略投资隐含的实物期权定价,使用蒙特卡罗方法来消除关键因素的不确定带来的影响。     

HOW DO RATING AGENCIES’ DECISIONS IMPACT STOCK MARKETS? A META‐ANALYSIS

The purpose of this study is to examine how credit rating agencies’ decisions impact the stock market using a systematic and quantitative review of existing empirical studies. Specifically, we employ a meta‐regression analysis (MRA) to investigate the extent and nature of the effect of rating agencies’ decisions on the stock market. We survey 62 studies published between 1978 and 2015. Our first finding is that the cumulative average abnormal returns calculated from this empirical literature are affected by publication bias. After controlling for publication bias, the main findings of our meta‐analysis indicate that negative rating decisions cause statistically significant negative abnormal returns. This evidence suggests an informational effect. Our results also indicate that positive rating decisions do not have a significant effect. Finally, the MRA results reveal the importance of several factors related to primary study design, as well as to the nature of the data.     

Are stock prices related to the political uncertainty index in OECD countries? Evidence from the bootstrap panel causality test

This study applies the bootstrap panel causality test proposed by Kónya (2006. Econ Modell 23, 978) to investigate the causal link between political uncertainty and stock prices for seven OECD countries over the monthly period of 2001.01 to 2013.04. This modeling approach allows us to examine both cross-sectional dependency and country-specific heterogeneity. Our empirical results indicate that not all the countries are alike and that the theoretical prediction that stock prices fall at the announcement of a policy change is not always supported. Specifically, we find evidence for the stock price leading hypothesis for Italy and Spain, while the political uncertainty leading hypothesis cannot be rejected for the United Kingdom and the United States. In addition, the neutrality hypothesis was supported in the remaining three countries (Canada, France and Germany), while no evidence for the feedback hypothesis was found.     

Position limit for the CSI 300 stock index futures market

The aim of this study was to find the optimal position limit for the Chinese stock index (CSI) 300 futures market. A low position limit helps to prevent price manipulations in the spot market, and thus keeps the magnitude of instantaneous price changes within the tolerance range of policymakers. However, setting a position limit that is too low may also have negative effects on market quality. We propose an artificial limit order market with heterogeneous interacting agents to examine the impact of different levels of position limits on market quality, measured as liquidity, return volatility, efficiency of information dissemination, and trading welfare. The simulation model is based on realistic trading mechanisms, investor structure, and order submission behavior observed in the CSI 300 futures market.Our results show that on the basis of the liquidity status in September 2010, raising the position limit from 100 to 300 could significantly improve market quality and at the same time keep the maximum absolute price change per 5 s below the 2% tolerance level. However, the improvement becomes only marginal if the position limit is further increased beyond 300. Therefore, we believe that raising the position limit to a moderate level can enhance the functionality of the CSI 300 futures market, which should benefit the development of the Chinese financial system.     

混凝土空心砌块墙体开裂实例分析

本人结合多年的实践经验,以鲅鱼圈信号楼工程为实例,详细分析混凝土空心砌块墙体开裂原因,实践性的给出了处理方案。实践证明,工程裂缝处理效果良好,希望此文能为类似工程起到一定的参考作用。     

经理人组合报酬激励契约模型研究

经理人报酬激励制度是现代企业激励机制的重要组成部分,现代经理人的报酬激励具有多种实现形式。为了激励经理人的有效行为,利用最优报酬契约经济理论构建了一个包含短期激励以及长期激励的财务性组合报酬契约模型,以及分析非财务性报酬对经理人行为选择的影响,是十分必要的,尤其是对我国国有企业经理人报酬激励制度优化问题,应该是很好的借鉴。     

自动喷泉控制系统水下电缆的使用选择

随着社会发展,自动喷泉的应用日益广泛,大量自动喷泉的建设及应用不可避免地产生诸如与节能、安全等有关的问题,如何解决这些问题,关系到自动喷泉的健康发展,本文就这些问题进行了有益探索。     

Real and financial effects of insider trading with correlated signals

Summary. In this paper we study the real and financial effects of insider trading in a Static, Kyle-type model. In our model the insider is also the manager of the firm. Hence the insider chooses both the amount of the real output to be produced and the amount of the stock of the firm to trade. The aim of the paper is to study the relationship between financial decisions and real decisions. In particular, we examine how insider trading on the stock market affects the real output and price and how the real decision making affects the financial variables, such as the extent of insider trading, stock prices, and the stock pricing rule of the market maker. In the model, the market maker observes two correlated signals: the total order flow and the market price of the real good. We study the informativeness of the stock price and the effects on insider's profits. We also construct a compensation scheme that aligns the interests of the insider and the firm. Finally, we generalize the pricing rule set up by a competitive market maker and analyze the comparative statics of the model. Received: October 3, 1999: revised version: December 1, 1999     

专利权价值评估的进一步探讨

在对现有专利权价值评估模型进行探讨的同时,又针对专利权的投入与产出均为随机的情况下,根据McDonald和Siegel是否继续生产期权计算公式,提出了修正期权定价法,作为对现有模型的补充。