Economic policy uncertainty and bank earnings opacity

Using a sample of U.S. banks and an index for economic policy uncertainty developed by Baker et al. (2016), we investigate whether economic policy uncertainty is systematically related to bank earnings opacity. When economic policy is relatively uncertain, it is easier for bank managers to distort financial information, as unpredictable economic policy changes make assessing the existence and impact of hidden “adverse news” more difficult for investors and creditors. Economic policy uncertainty also increases the fluctuation in banks’ earnings and cash flows, thus providing additional incentives and opportunities for bank managers to engage in earnings management. Our results show that uncertainty in economic policy is positively related to earnings opacity, proxied by the magnitude of discretionary loan loss provisions and the likelihood of just meeting or beating the prior year’s earnings, and negatively related to the level of accounting conservatism (i.e., the timeliness of recognition of bad news relative to good news). Collectively, our results suggest that economic policy uncertainty leads to greater earnings opacity. We also find that the impact of economic policy uncertainty on financial reporting distortion is less pronounced for stronger banks (i.e., banks with high capital ratios).     

Economic policy uncertainty and corporate cash policy: International evidence

I investigate the influences of economic policy uncertainty on corporate cash policy. The findings show that there is a positive association between economic policy uncertainty and cash holdings, as well as the propensity to save cash out of operating cash flow. Further analyses suggests that economic policy uncertainty affects corporate cash policy by influencing firms’ precautionary saving motives and the effect is larger when firms have difficulty in raising external finance. Using the new index developed by Baker et al. (2016), I extend the literature on economic policy uncertainty and show that it is an important macro-level factor in influencing corporate cash policy.     

The investment decision with technological and market uncertainties

This paper examines how technological uncertainty affects current investment; specifically, what is the impact on a firm’s investment in an existing technology when an improved technology might arrive in the future. The firm can invest in the current technology and upgrade to the new technology after its arrival (sequential investing), or it can bypass the current technology and invest directly in the new technology (leapfrogging). The main result is that, in the presence of market risk, future technological uncertainty has a non-monotonic effect on investment, with the investment trigger being a U-shaped function of the expected speed of arrival of the new technology. In this U-shaped relationship, the investment trigger starts rising later if the new technology is more attractive and also when volatility and interest rate are high and growth rate low; thus, technological uncertainty is more likely to have a positive effect on investment under these conditions. Finally, we apply the model to the sequential versus leapfrog investment decision, and find that leapfrogging becomes more attractive relative to sequential investment when interest rate and new technology earnings enhancement are higher, and when market volatility, growth rate and new technology investment cost are lower.     

我国上市公司策略性股票更名:战略转型还是高位套现？

本文发现上市公司进行策略性股票更名后并未出现实质上的转型举措,战略转型并非其更名背后的真实动机。进一步利用“新国九条”出台开展的自然实验,以及对股票减持动机存在差异的国有和非国有上市公司进行比较,我们发现,更名公司具有强烈的内在动机在通过更名抬高股价后减持套现,以获取短期投资收益。本文由此提醒我国资本市场的投资者,不宜把部分上市公司进行的上述策略性股票更名过度解读为上市公司未来进行战略转型的信号。     

环境规制对企业绿色创新的影响机理研究 ——战略柔性与区域差异性的双调节作用

企业绿色创新既需要环境规制政策引导,又需要有较强战略柔性与之相协调。引入战略柔性、区域差异性的调节作用,并采用分组回归检验环境规制对企业绿色创新的区域差异性影响,探索环境规制对企业绿色创新的双元影响机制。结果显示：环境规制对企业绿色技术创新和企业绿色管理创新均具有显著正向影响,且对前者的积极影响更显著;战略柔性正向调节环境规制与企业绿色技术创新、企业绿色管理创新间的关系,且对后者的调节作用更大;环境规制对企业绿色创新的影响呈现“东、中部各领风骚,西部较弱”的区域差异性特征：环境规制对企业绿色技术创新、企业绿色管理创新的促进作用在中部、东部地区较强,在西部地区较弱。     

Multiplicative uncertainty in a model without inflationary bias

This paper shows that an increase in the degree of multiplicative uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of monetary policy will reduce social loss when policymaker’s preferences are highly uncertain. This result is still valid even when there is no distortion in the market.     

The integration of forecasting and strategic planning

The paper analyzes the use of information in companies planning strategically versus those which are not. This contrast is used to build the case for developing strategic forecasting capability which focuses on a variety of environments, is proactive and interactive, and creates a need for different kinds of data bases and forecasting techniques.     

中国在大湄公河次区域金融合作中的战略选择

中国加入WTO的后过渡期已经结束,在经济一体化、金融全球化以及区域经济一体化浪潮面前,中国金融业如何抓住机遇才能应对挑战,已经成为中国金融业的重大课题。大湄公河次区域经济合作第二次领导人会议在昆明的成功召开,给本地区的金融合作提供了一次极好机会。对大湄公河次区域各国的金融合作现状进行初步分析,并提出一些次区域金融合作的可行构想和建议。     

战略管理会计的内容及方法探析

20世纪80年代以来,企业面临日益激烈的全球性竞争,经济环境日趋复杂,战略管理会计应运而生。战略管理会计是企业战略管理与管理会计相结合的产物。战略管理会计作为一项新生事物,目前学界对其众说纷纭,本文就其内容和方法进行探讨,并对我国实施战略管理会计提出的几点建议。     

Analyst estimation revision clusters and corporate events, Part II

Summary In Part I of this study, we evaluated the relative usefulness of information in alternative corporate information events (CIEs) to analysts by examining the frequency with which they trigger clusters of analysts’ earnings estimate revisions. In Part II, we examine investor response to various CIEs and their revision clusters. We find that stock prices react most strongly and adjust most quickly to revision clusters that accompany CIEs that focus on financial statement information. CIEs that offer strategic information take longer for analysts and investors to assimilate, and investors appear to rely heavily on later analyst revisions following such events.