The impact of the Internet on human activity–travel patterns: analysis of gender differences using multi-group structural equation models

The widespread use of the Internet for conducting various types of activities may be leading to considerable change in people’s activity–travel patterns. Past studies, however, have left many issues unaddressed. Using an Internet-activity diary dataset and multi-group structural equation modeling, this study examines the complex interactions between different types of Internet and physical activities, with a special focus on gender differences and Internet maintenance and leisure activities. The results indicate that the impacts of Internet activities on people’s activity–travel patterns are significantly different across gender. In general, Internet use for maintenance purposes has a greater impact on women’s activity–travel in the physical world, while Internet use for leisure purposes affects men’s physical activities and travel to a greater extent. Further, breaking Internet activities down into different categories reveals some hidden patterns that would not have been detected if these different types of Internet activities were lumped together as a single category.     

The Competitiveness of Mobile Telephony across the European Union

This paper analyses the competitiveness of the mobile telecommunications industry across the European Union. A structural model of demand and supply has been estimated for annual data on 15 EU countries from 1998 to 2002. Estimates of country‐specific conjectural variations allow us to compare the competitiveness of mobile telephony across the EU, and can offer an alternative to the evaluation of competition based on direct cross‐country price comparisons. Average industry conjectural variations decrease over time as a result of regulation. The liberalization of fixed telephone lines and the introduction of number portability for mobiles increase the competitiveness of the mobile industry.     

The Persistence of Profits in the Long Run: A New Approach

We present a trend‐based alternative to the standard first‐order autoregression model in persistence of profits studies. This is motivated by reservations over the interpretation of the standard model, and rests on a different concept of dynamic competition. A nine‐category taxonomy of long‐run persistence stereotypes is developed. Structural time series estimates are presented for a sample of UK companies. We find the null of long run competitive equilibrium not rejected in nearly a third of cases, but non‐eroding persistence to be present in around 60%.     

关于日本经济长期停滞理论与政策的思考

泡沫危机以后,日本试图通过凯恩斯经济政策和结构改革的交替运用来恢复经济增长。20世纪90年代前期,凯恩斯经济政策的运用取得了短期效果。由于供给结构的变化,这一政策并没有使日本经济真正摆脱危机的困境。90年代后期,日本开始改为实施结构改革来提高其潜在增长率。由于总需求的持续减少,日本经济开始由短期衰退转为长期停滞。本文认为,泡沫危机后日本资产价格的持续下跌,导致各经济主体出现大量的不良资产,抵消了以上两大政策的经济效应。其中,商业银行对不良债权处理的拖延造成供给结构效率下降、企业投资和个人消费持续减少,使日本经济的停滞趋于长期化。     

网络嵌入、集聚模仿与大学衍生企业知识溢出——基于中国三大海洋工程装备制造业集群的实证研究

引入新网络特征——空间集聚结构发现,我国企业集群知识溢出存在空间模仿效应。为此,利用空间计量模型修正社会网络分析结果,考察大学衍生企业网络嵌入演进对企业集群知识溢出的真实影响。结果表明,产业关联、信任、关系联结规模和中介中心度有助于提高企业集群知识溢出水平,知识认同度和互惠程度对知识溢出的影响存在最优均衡;网络嵌入对知识溢出的影响存在明显的空间模仿效应,在连续性知识空间更多表现为邻近效应,在间断性知识空间则表现为异质效应,集群内空间模仿效应强于集群间;在控制空间效应后,仅在波纹状集聚结构的环渤海集群存在结构洞与知识溢出的负向关联。基于上述结果,结合我国国情提出海洋装备集群未来发展政策及启示。     

演化视角下全产业链创新网络结构及核心企业行为对创新绩效的影响——以苹果公司网络为例

从理论上分析了全产业链创新网络结构特点以及核心企业行为模式与创新绩效的关系,提出相关假设;从开放性的2个维度,即开放广度和开放深度量化核心企业开放式创新的行为模式。依据偏最小二乘法,将结构和行为模式的表征变量作为自变量,创新绩效的4个表征变量作为因变量,进行交叉检验;最后选取1个主成分进行回归分析,检验理论假设。     

Can good marketing carry a bad product? Evidence from the motion picture industry

We examine the relative roles of marketing actions and product quality in determining commercial success. Using the motion picture context, in which product quality is difficult for consumers to anticipate and information on product success is available for different points in time, we model the effects of studio actions and movie quality on a movie’s sales during different phases of its theatrical run. For a sample of 331 recent motion pictures, structural equation modeling demonstrates that studio actions primarily influence early box office results, whereas movie quality influences both short- and long-term theatrical outcomes. The core results are robust across moderating conditions. We identify two data segments with follow-up latent class regressions and explore the degree of studio actions needed to “save” movies of varying quality. We finally offer some implications for research and management.     

中国贸易收支的结构分析

20世纪90年代除1993年外,我国贸易收支保持持续顺差的状态,贸易收支的顺差额在不断的增长,贸易收支在国际收支和国民经济中的地位日益重要。对我国的贸易收支进行研究有重大的理论和现实意义。本文试图研究我国贸易收支内部结构的特点,对我国贸易收支进行结构分析。     

中美双边工业品增加值贸易隐含碳福利核算与分配问题研究

现代贸易方式不仅导致贸易利益在全球价值链上进行分配,还带来了贸易隐含污染排放在全球贸易网络中的分布。两国之间的贸易利益分配除了表现为贸易经济福利的分配,还表现为贸易隐含碳福利的分配。本文将贸易增加值分解法结合MRIO模型对2000—2014年中美双边工业品贸易增加值所隐含的碳福利分配及影响机制展开深入分析。研究结果表明:(1)在中美双边工业品增加值贸易隐含碳福利分配中,碳福利逆差在中国,碳福利顺差在美国;(2)中美工业品贸易碳福利级差经历了“先扩大,后收窄”的过程,美国次贷危机之后双边碳福利不平衡状况重新呈现扩大趋势;(3)中国碳排放强度下降、价值链地位提升以及对美进口规模扩大都有助于改善碳福利逆差的局面,但美国对中国不断扩大的中间品和最终品需求以及双边复杂的技术关联结构仍是中国碳福利逆差的主导因素;(4)全球价值链的深化可能将导致对出口国加征关税会通过降低进口消费侧排放的方式恶化加征国的贸易隐含碳福利。本文研究的时间范围同时覆盖中国加入WTO以及美国次贷危机两个重要节点,这对于重新审视中美经贸关系新格局下双边贸易隐含碳福利分配构建了一个新的分析视角,为中美未来贸易谈判以及全球碳排放责任认定提供了一个新的解读方向。     

人民币汇率变动的物价传递效应:多结构变化协整回归分析

现有研究物价传递效应的文献以线性模型为主,甚少关注物价传递过程中可能存在的结构变化,本文在充分考虑我国转轨时期所面临的各种经济冲击的条件下,利用最新发展的多结构变化协整回归方法考察了1994年1月至2008年12月间人民币汇率变动的物价传递效应。研究结果表明,人民币汇率变动的物价传递效应分别在1998年8月、2002年10月、2005年8月及2007年7月发生了四次结构变化,传递效应虽总体趋减,但2007年7月后出现了反复,且符号也发生了改变。在上述结论基础上,本文提出了相关政策建议。