Business Cycles Synchronisation and Symmetries in the Transition to East African Monetary Union

Our paper explores the prospects for the proposed East African Monetary Union (EAMU) by employing rigorous empirical tools to analyse business cycles synchronisation, structural cross-correlations, spectral decomposition and regional clusters to identify different cyclical episodes, periodicities and characterise the economic cycles of East African countries. We find that cyclical movements reflect various idiosyncratic, common, historical and external shocks in the region. Secondly, all countries appear to be structurally correlated with each other except for South Sudan and Burundi. Our results also observe that the contemporaneous co-movements of East African Community (EAC) cycles with those of Kenya and Tanzaniaare procyclical with coincidental path shift, while the same EAC cycles appear to be acyclical with those of Burundi. Additionally, from the spectral decomposition, Kenyan cycles take 10 years to complete, while those of Tanzania and Rwanda take 8 years. Ugandan and Burundian cycles take approximately 5 years, while the cyclical frequency for South Sudan corresponds to 3.3 years. Finally, the cluster characterisation of countries reveals that South Sudan, Burundi and Rwanda form a group, while Kenya and Tanzania from a group distinct from the rest. We urge the member countries to prioritise policies on regional risk-sharing and adjustment mechanisms, in addition to establishing credible institutional infrastructure that ensures surveillance and enforcement of convergence conditions adopted in EAMU protocol.     

Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.     

风马象征意义的结构分析

风马,作为世代生活在雪域高原上藏民族文化的一个标志性象征,多有学者进行研究,但就风马的象征意义只是在历史与宗教背景下的简单陈述,缺乏对风马象征意义的结构性认识。以前人关于风马的研究为基础,结合结构主义人类学相关理论,对风马象征意义的结构进行分析,试图得出风马象征意义深层内涵的结构。     

Testing purchasing power parity for Japan and the US: A structural-break approach

In this work we empirically assess the weak and strong forms of purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for the economies of Japan and US. Monthly data for the, traded-goods price indices and the JPY/USD exchange rate are employed for the, period from January 2000 to October 2012. This period includes large shocks, such as, the US subprime crisis and the 2011 Tsunami in Japan. We take into account possible, structural shifts and breaks by employing the class of Lee and Strazicich, 2003, Lee and Strazicich, 2004 unit, root tests. Empirical analysis suggests that a break corresponding to the start of the US subprime crisis is not rejected. Furthermore, utilizing the Gregory and Hansen (1996) and, Hatemi (2008) cointegration methodologies, the weak form of PPP is not rejected. We, also test the strong PPP hypothesis by using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares, (DOLS). The empirical evidence rejects the strong form of PPP for the period, preceding the US subprime crisis in contrast to the period after.     

Exploring the factors that drive consumers to use contactless delivery services in the context of the continued COVID-19 pandemic

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the launch of contactless delivery services. This research integrates resource matching, service quality evaluation, and perceived value theories to explore the factors that promote the use contactless delivery services. The data was obtained through questionnaire surveys, and research hypotheses were verified through the structural equation modelling approach. With the exception of convenience, the results show that privacy, reliability, security, and flexibility have a significantly positive effect on consumers' intention to use “contactless” delivery services through consumers' perceived value. This study contributes to the literature by introducing theoretical frameworks from various paradigms and enriches the academic research on existing theoretical structure models. It also helps optimize resource allocation and realize the social environment related to coexisting with the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Nominal shocks and the current account: A structural VAR analysis of 14 OECD countries

This paper provides some empirical evidence on one of the most controversial theoretical implications of the new open economy literature, which refers to the role of the current account in the international monetary transmission mechanism. In order to throw some light on this issue, two structural VAR models are estimated separately for 14 industrialized countries. The main empirical results highlight the importance of the role of nominal disturbances for current account fluctuations. Additionally, it is found that expansionary nominal shocks generate temporary current account surpluses, whose size is positively correlated with the openness of the individual countries. JEL no. C32, E40, F41, F42     

Tourism image, evaluation variables and after purchase behaviour: inter-relationship

Numerous authors have pointed out the influence of tourism image on consumer behaviour. Tourism image will also exercise some influence on the quality perceived by tourists and on the satisfaction obtained from the holiday experience. This paper focuses on the relationship between the image of a destination as perceived by tourists and their behavioural intentions, and between that same image and the post-purchase evaluation of the stay. We will also examine the relationship between quality and satisfaction and between these variables and the tourist's behaviour variables. We place the accent on a joint analysis of these relationships, using a structural equation model. The results of the empirical study show that tourism image is a direct antecedent of perceived quality, satisfaction, intention to return and willingness to recommend the destination. The role of image as a key factor in destination marketing is thus confirmed. With reference to the other relationships, on the one hand, it is confirmed that quality has a positive influence on satisfaction and intention to return and that satisfaction determines the willingness to recommend the destination. However, the influence of quality on ‘willingness to recommend’ and the influence of satisfaction on ‘intention to return’ cannot be corroborated. In this sense, further research could be necessary.     

高层管理团队理论研究综述

企业如何在由复杂性引起的"弱情境"下制定正确的战略,在高层管理者中间构建一个真正的团队被认为十分关键。立足于高层管理团队理论研究视角,综合近20多年来国内外学者理论研究成果,阐述了高层管理团队理论的起源、发展和相关性研究。最后,对其理论研究的现状进行了评述,并讨论了扩展研究的方向。     

Quality,Satisfaction and Customers’ Future Intention: The Case of Hotels’ Fitness Centers in Cyprus

In an era of fierce competition, financial hardship, and volatile customer expectations the hospitality industry is seeking out new revenue centers that can both enrich the customer experience, and contribute to financial success. Capturing the attention of the industry, fitness centers have become a fundamental component of the contemporary hospitality experience with numerous strategic, operational and tactical implications. Responding to the need for further empirical investigation, the study, by adopting a quantitative methodology, holistically investigates quality, satisfaction, and behavioral intention in fitness centers currently operating in upscale hospitality establishments in Cyprus. Findings suggest that satisfaction with the provision of fitness services in hotels is primarily associated with the dimensions of employee behavior and workout facilities. Moreover, workout facilities was the only quality dimension which was significantly associated with the respondents’ intention to renew their membership, whereas a strong relationship between satisfaction and future intention was substantiated.     

Structural effects of cognitive and affective reponses to web advertisements,website and brand attitudes,and purchase intentions: The case of casual-dining restaurants

This study investigates the structural relationships among responses to website advertisements, website attitudes, brand attitudes, and purchase intentions in the case of web advertisements for casual-dining restaurants. Responses toward advertising (Rad) factors were categorized as cognitive responses and affective responses. The SEM model in LISREL was used to examine the interrelationships among the proposed hypothesized constructs. Several empirical results were obtained. First, Rad had a positive effect on website attitudes. Second, website attitudes had a positive effect on brand attitudes. Third, brand attitudes had a positive effect on purchase intentions. Finally, some discussion and implications of the study are provided.