Improving sourcing decisions in NPD projects: Monetary quantification of points of difference

During new product development (NPD), firms make critical design and sourcing decisions that determine the new product's cost, performance, competitive position, and profitability. The purchase price of materials and components for the new product provides only part of the picture for design and sourcing decisions. All-encompassing analyses of cost and performance, such as total cost of ownership, are extraordinarily difficult to implement because they are demanding in terms of time, data and cooperation. We study monetary quantification of points of difference, which enables an NPD team to base its decisions instead on more focused, strategically-pertinent analyses of costs and performance. We propose a substantive model of its antecedents and consequences. We then test this model with data from matched samples of 144 project leaders and 144 cost analysts who participated in the same NPD projects. Using structural equation modeling, we also test hypothesized differences in perspectives between project leaders and cost analysts. Results demonstrate the pivotal role of monetary quantification of points of difference among the sourcing alternatives being considered, especially for cost analysts. Results also demonstrate that Decision Justification to senior management drives the NPD team's decision-making process. Finally, monetary quantification of points of difference leads to Uncertainty Reduction, which is found to be the primary antecedent of the judged success of applying analysis of cost and performance.     

MULTIPLICATIVE DECOMPOSITION AND INDEX NUMBER THEORY: AN EMPIRICAL APPLICATION OF THE SATO–VARTIA DECOMPOSITION

In de Boer (2008), additive decompositions of aggregate changes in a variable into its factors were considered. We proposed using the ‘ideal’ Montgomery decomposition, developed in index number theory as an alternative to the commonly used methods in structural decomposition analysis, and applied it to the example analyzed by Dietzenbacher and Los (1998) (D&L). In this paper we consider multiplicative decompositions and show that the method proposed by D&L of taking the geometric mean of all elementary decompositions is ‘ideal’. However, it requires the computation of an ever-increasing number of decompositions when the number of factors increases. As an alternative, we propose using the Sato–Vartia decomposition, which is also ‘ideal’, but requires the computation of only one decomposition. Application to the example of D&L reveals that the two methods yield results that are very close to each other.     

人民币升值对我国经济的结构性影响分析

自2005年以来,人民币升值的情况逐渐加快,对市场也产生了较大的影响。本文分析了人民币升值的的背景和人民币升值对我国经济的结构性影响,并提出了相应的人民币升值的建议和对策。     

协同创新项目组织特征与知识扩散——网络嵌入视角

知识扩散是协同创新项目资源整合的主要途径,知识扩散参与方通过相互之间的任务协作关系嵌入项目网络中,其嵌入特征影响项目知识扩散行为及结果。协同创新项目的任务导向性使组织中的网络嵌入特征及知识扩散行为具有显著特殊性。基于此,构建项目层面的知识扩散仿真模型,并进行网络嵌入性的敏感性分析。仿真结果证实,不同程度的关系嵌入性与结构嵌入性对知识扩散的知识增量与知识水平差异程度两个维度均具有显著影响。从优化知识扩散角度看,协同创新项目组织中适度的关系嵌入性与低水平的结构嵌入性能够最大程度地提升知识扩散效率,实现组织中知识资源充分流动。     

工作嵌入对知识型员工越轨创新行为的影响——建设性责任知觉与角色宽度自我效能的链式中介作用

应用资源保存理论、社会交换理论和社会认知理论,构建工作嵌入对知识型员工越轨创新行为影响的理论框架,并分析建设性责任知觉和角色宽度自我效能在两者间的内在作用机制。运用层次回归分析法和Bootstrap法,对324份知识型员工问卷数据进行实证检验,分析发现：工作嵌入对越轨创新有显著正向影响;角色宽度自我效能在工作嵌入与越轨创新之间发挥完全中介作用;建设性责任知觉在工作嵌入与越轨创新之间发挥部分中介作用;建设性责任知觉与角色宽度自我效能在工作嵌入对越轨创新的作用路径中发挥链式中介作用。     

Asymmetries and Markov-switching structural VAR

The development of nonlinear representations and of generalized IRFs favored the study of the variables behavior in response to an economically identified shock as regards (i) the state of the system when the shock occurs, (ii) the size of the shock and (iii) the sign of the shock. Generalized IRFs are widely used in threshold representations to illustrate and even test the presence of asymmetries (Potter, 1995, van Dijk et al., 2007). However, GIRF have known no comparable development in Markov-switching VAR. I show that whether IRF and GIRF recently developed in this framework impose sign and size symmetries or display poor properties. In this paper, I propose a new GIRF for general Markov-switching structural VAR with fixed transition probabilities. In a simulation framework inspired from Rubio-Ramirez et al. (2005), I relax the assumption of perfect knowledge of the regime and introduce the updating step proposed by Camacho and Perez-Quiros (2013). As a consequence, sign/size asymmetries can now be examined in MSIAH-VAR and the GIRF now incorporates the dependence on future shocks without extra complexity. Visited regimes can now differ endogenously between the shocked and baseline trajectories due to the initial and future shocks but the only exogenous difference in the simulated trajectories relies on the initial structural shock. I use this approach to implement a test for sign and size asymmetries on US aggregate gross job flows.     

Sanctions and the Russian stock market

The article presents the robust estimates of extreme movements and heavy-tailedness properties for Russian stock indices returns before and after sanctions were introduced. The obtained results show that almost for all sectoral indices there was a statistically significant increase in volatility. At the same time there is not enough evidence of structural breaks in heavy-tailedness, though some indications of heavier both right and left tails in the post-imposition period can be observed for some indices. However, we cannot with complete certainty directly link the increase in heavy-tailedness with the imposed sanctions. The latter to a considerable extent could be caused by higher country-specific risks due to geopolitical tensions as well as oil prices volatility. Whatever is the cause, any increases in heavy-tailedness can have grave consequences for corporate management, economic modeling and financial stability analysis.     

关于降杠杆去产能策略的思考

随着全球经济发展不确定性增加,中国长期经济发展与短期结构调整面临的两难选择愈加突出。本文认为,中国的经济结构调整需要"两条腿走路",即以改善金融体系运行效率为主进行降杠杆,同时实施产能输出,从而为现阶段中国经济结构调整争取更多的时间和空间,推动中国经济顺利换档和转型升级。     

Hedge fund returns under crisis scenarios: A holistic approach

The assets of the hedge fund industry are nearly equivalent to the GDP of the UK. The industry, which claims returns independent of markets conditions and has been blamed for economic crises, has attracted the interest of a wide range of financial and political players and academics. This paper, using monthly series performance data since January 1995, at a fund strategy level and S&P500, and a holistic and a developed dynamic correlation quantitative approach, aims to challenge the allegations and the claims, which have been made on rather incomplete research grounds. Statistically, the results strongly reject the claims of the vast majority of fund strategies, excluding the case of the macro and short strategies, over the crisis periods, suggesting that they cannot protect their investors like S&P500. Regarding the allegations, it is inferred that Hedge Funds are used in most cases as a scapegoat rather than actually being the cause of the crises.     

THE POWER OF VISIBLE HANDS: AN ENVIRONMENTAL STRUCTURAL DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS CONSIDERING THE PEOPLE'S DAILY EFFECT

As an organ of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the People's Daily (PD) has a critical influence on China's policies and economy. This study examines the impact of the PD on China's economic structural changes and industry environmental performance. To separate the ‘PD effect’ from other effects in total sectoral CO₂ emission changes, we propose a new variation of structural decomposition analysis using the frequencies of keywords employed in the PD. We use data from the PD for 2001 to 2011 and the Chinese input–output tables for 2002, 2005, 2007, and 2010. The results show that, on average, the PD effect explains about 11% of changes in total sectoral CO₂ emissions. Specifically, the PD has a relatively strong impact on the mining and utility sectors, while its impact on the manufacturing sectors is relatively weak.