Does bond market development enhance the banking sector’s efficiency in resource allocation? Industry-level evidence from Korea

Korea’s financial system used to be bank-based, with banks playing the leading role in financing corporations. As highlighted by Park et al. (2019), however, bond markets have developed rapidly in Korea and other Asian countries. The corporate bond market competes with banks as a source of finance for large borrowers. As such, bond markets may affect banking sector operation, a process known as disintermediation. In this paper, we examine whether bond market development improves the efficiency of resource allocation in Korean bank lending. We propose two channels through which bond market development affects the efficiency of bank lending. Since the two channels have opposing effects on the efficiency of banking, the issue must be settled by empirical analysis. We find that bank loans are much less efficient than bond financing in allocating resources across industries. Furthermore, banks are particularly inefficient in resource allocation in industries that rely more on bond financing. This suggests that competition from bond financing does not improve allocative efficiency of bank loans.     

我国地震巨灾债券发行问题初探

我国在地震风险转嫁机制方面严重不足,应借鉴发达国家经验,发行地震巨灾债券。我国保险市场与资本市场经过多年发展,已经具备了基本条件。可设立巨灾风险管理协调委员会,尽快推进发行地震巨灾债券试点。可先在国际资本市场发行巨灾债券,主要面向国际机构投资者,以积累经验,条件成熟时再在国内资本市场发行。     

美国版权证券化的困境析

鲍伊债券在美国开启了知识产权证券化的大门,一度兴盛,但现在呈现困顿状态,原因主要有五个,其中版权所有权和版权担保权益公示问题是困扰版权证券化的主因。理清这些原因,有助于我们理性看待版权证券化本身及其在中国的发展前景。     

Public–private partnerships in Social Impact Bonds: facilitating competition or hindering transparency?

ABSTRACT

The use of Social Impact Bonds (SIBs), which introduces the potential for investor profit in public service provision, has been widely discussed. Some argue that SIBs might promote government transparency because outcome data collection and evaluation are part of contractual terms. On the other hand, some argue that SIBs might hinder government transparency because more contractual parties might lead to more uncertain data ownership and because the profit motive transforms information into a competitive advantage. This paper looks at SIBs in five countries, examining how transparency differed between SIB and non-SIB financed programmes at the same social service provider. On the positive side, SIBs led to more and longer collection of outcome data and the publication of evaluations. On the negative side, it was found that SIBs tend to generate significant obstacles to the release of data to academic researchers and that sponsored evaluations do not measure impacts.     

我国可转换债券价值影响因素的敏感度分析

本文采用修正的二叉树模型,对影响可转换债券价值的影响因素进行敏感度分析。分析结果表明,基础股价、股价波动率和公司债券利率是可转债价值最重要的影响因素。本文的分析和结论对于将来构建可转债多因素定价模型和从事可转债的套利分析具有较高的参考价值。     

宏观经济变量对中国国债风险溢价影响的实证研究——基于上海证券交易所的交易数据

本文基于面板数据模型,对各主要宏观经济变量及利率期限结构对国债风险溢价的影响进行了实证研究.研究结果表明:国债利率期限结构曲线越陡峭,国债的风险溢价水平越高;通货膨胀因素对国债风险溢价水平的影响较大;规模以上工业增加值、上证综合指数月度收益率与L 债风险溢价水平存在显著负相关关系;广义货币供应量与国债风险溢价水平存在显著正相关关系;官方利率与国债风险溢价水平的关系较弱.     

Gold price dynamics and the role of uncertainty

This study focuses on the dynamics of the gold price against bonds, stocks and exchange rates based on a disaggregation of the underlying relationships across different frequencies applying a wavelet decomposition. To analyze joint extreme movements (i.e. tail dependence), we adopt a copula approach, which helps us to assess the dependence between the returns of gold and other assets in calm and turmoil market times and therefore the hedge and safe haven functions of gold. We also examine whether gold prices are directly affected by changes in macroeconomic uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and/or CPI forecasters disagreement. Analyzing data for nine economies for a sample period starting in 1985, we find that the role of gold changes significantly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Gold is unable to serve as a hedge or safe haven in the classical sense while the findings for the period prior to 2008 mostly suggest that gold is able to shield investors. Uncertainty measures display a surprising and time-varying relationship with the path of the gold price. While economic policy uncertainty is positively correlated with gold price changes, macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty among forecasters are both negatively related to gold price changes.     

Carry

We apply the concept of carry, which has been studied almost exclusively in currency markets, to any asset. A security’s expected return is decomposed into its “carry,” an ex-ante and model-free characteristic, and its expected price appreciation. Carry predicts returns cross-sectionally and in time series for a host of different asset classes, including global equities, global bonds, commodities, US Treasuries, credit, and options. Carry is not explained by known predictors of returns from these asset classes, and it captures many of these predictors, providing a unifying framework for return predictability. We reject a generalized version of Uncovered Interest Parity and the Expectations Hypothesis in favor of models with varying risk premia, in which carry strategies are commonly exposed to global recession, liquidity, and volatility risks, though none fully explains carry’s premium.     

境内机构境外发行人民币债券政策研究

允许境内机构境外发行人民币债券,是顺应我国资本市场逐步开放、国际金融市场一体化趋势,助力人民币国际化新发展,利用海内外两个市场、两种资源,满足市场低成本资金需求,改善境内企业负债结构,支持企业“走出去”的有效途径,也是利用国际外资的重要渠道之一。2015年9月4日,国家发改委发布了《关于推进企业发行外债备案登记制管理改革的通知》（发改外资[2015]2044号,以下简称“境外发债新规”）,松绑了我国境内机构境外发行人民币债券的审核程序,便利了境内机构境外发行人民币债券手续,进一步推进境内机构赴境外发行人民币债券。     

当前启动内需与宏观经济政策的着重点

要通过启动内需而保增长,就必须有效调整货币政策和财政政策,实行积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。本文通过多方面分析,指出当前在我国启动内需的宏观经济政策调控中应该更多地注重运用财政政策,慎用货币政策,并就如何更加有效地运用财税政策提出相关建议。