关于重新设立国债期货的若干问题

在简单回顾中国国债期货试点经历及其失败深层原因的基础上,本文以金融发展与金融功能理论为主线,从金融深化视角出发对国债期货的产生及其经济效应做了一些分析.我们认为作为市场完全化过程的必然产物,金融衍生产品不仅本质上是"风险中性"的,而且也成为了企业、居民风险管理的重要手段.其风险主要是主体使用动机异化所致.最后,对当前在中国重新恢复国债期货试点的迫切性与必要性进行了分析,指出国债期货的重新恢复对于当前中国金融体制改革的深化可能是具有深远意义的重要步骤之一.     

巨灾债券与巨灾保险风险分散

巨灾债券,作为一种债权合同,相对于巨灾再保险而言,虽然是一个两极端产品,但在分散风险方面具有其不可比拟的优势。在大额损失时,巨灾债券是巨灾再保险的一种很好的替代产品。另外,巨灾风险债券的发行对巨灾再保险免赔额具有积极影响。     

Measuring connectedness of euro area sovereign risk

We introduce a method for measuring the default risk connectedness of euro zone sovereign states using credit default swap (CDS) and bond data. The connectedness measure is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. Due to its predictive nature, it can respond to crisis occurrences more quickly than common in-sample techniques. We determine the sovereign default risk connectedness using both CDS and bond data in order to obtain a more comprehensive picture of the system. We find evidence that there are several observable factors that drive the difference between CDS and bonds, but both data sources still contain specific information for connectedness spill-overs. In general, we can identify countries that impose risk on the system and the respective spill-over channels. Our empirical analysis covers the years 2009–2014, such that the recovery paths of countries exiting EU and IMF financial assistance schemes and the responses to the ECB’s unconventional policy measures can be analyzed.     

企业文化外部导向对关系纽带、信任的影响研究

强而有力的企业文化会帮助企业度过成长过程中所遭遇的挑战，形成独特的企业竞争优势。以往绝大多数研究者由于把视野过度放在研究企业内部，聚焦在企业文化对内部员工的影响，从而忽略了外部导向的企业文化对顾客、上游供应商以及下游渠道商的影响力。事实上，这对于企业来说，具有更直接的意义。研究表明具有外部导向文化的企业，其文化最重要的影响就是便于与外部相关利益者建立良好的信任关系和关系纽带。     

Has market discipline on banks improved after the Dodd–Frank Act?

We investigate whether or not market discipline on banking firms changed after the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (DFA) of 2010. If market discipline is improved, we should see a lower discount for size on yield spreads, particularly for banks identified as too-big-to-fail (TBTF) or systemically important (SIFI). Using secondary market subordinated debt transactions we find that the size discount is reduced by 47% and TBTF discount is reduced by 94% after the DFA. The DFA has been effective in reducing, but not in eliminating the size and TBTF discounts on yield spreads. Market discipline of banks appears to have improved further after the rating criteria changes by Moody’s.     

政策推动还是市场驱动?--基于文本挖掘技术的绿色金融发展指数计算及影响因素分析

本文运用文本挖掘法测算了2012~2017年全国31个省市区绿色金融发展指数水平,在此基础之上,首次较为全面地检验了政策推动、金融发展、生态环境和经济基础四大类因素对各地绿色金融发展水平的影响,并分别对2012~2014年、2015~2017年两个时间段子样本,以及东、中、西部三个区域子样本进行了进一步检验。实证结果表明:从全国来看,地方专门政策和金融发展水平是推动我国各地绿色金融发展的关键变量,但金融发展水平的影响并不稳定,且有赖于地方政策的实施;从时间上看,金融发展水平和地方政策推动分别是2015年前后我国各地绿色金融发展的主要影响因素,2015年后政策的出台进一步增强了金融发展对绿色金融的推动作用;分区域看,由金融发展水平主导的、自下而上的绿色金融创新在东部地区更为活跃,而西部地区则更有赖于地方政策主导的、自上而下的支持。     

Bank capital regulation, asset risk, and subordinated uninsured debt

Whether more stringent capital requirements lead to reduced or to increased bank risk-taking has been discussed intensively in the academic literature. In this paper we drop the common but unrealistic assumptions that banks only issue deposits whose returns are guaranteed by a subsidised deposit insurance and that deposit insurance is free. We prove that with uninsured debt and a flat-rate deposit insurance premium the reaction of a bank to a higher capital requirement may change substantially. In some scenarios banks increase asset risk due to the enforcement of a more stringent capital requirement.     

Flexible Term Structure Estimation: Which Method is Preferred?

We show that the recently developed non-parametric procedure for fitting the term structure of interest rates developed by Linton, Mammen, Nielsen, and Tanggaard (J Econ 105(1):185–223, 2001) overall performs notably better than the highly flexible McCulloch (J Finon 30:811–830, 1975) cubic spline and Fama and Bliss (Am Econ Rev 77:680–692, 1987) bootstrap methods. However, if interest is limited to the Treasury-bill region alone then the Fama–Bliss method demonstrates superior performance. We further show, via simulation, that using the estimated short rate from the Linton–Mammen–Nielsen–Tanggaard procedure as a proxy for the short rate has higher precision then the commonly used proxies of the one and three month Treasury-bill rates. It is demonstrated that this precision is important when using proxies to estimate the stochastic process governing the evolution of the short rate     

债券到期收益率简便计算公式的改进

在对计算到期收益率(YTM)简便计算公式进行的数学推导基础上,将式中购买价格与面值的平均值作为考虑资金时间价值的投资额,改为用两者的加权平均值作为考虑资金时间价值的投资额,从而给出了一个改进的简便计算公式。通过实例对两种简便计算公式进行了比较,结果表明,改进后的简便计算公式误差更小。     

Distance to default,subordinated debt,and distress indicators in the banking industry*

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the inadequacy of present supervisory arrangements to identify reliable ex‐ante indicators of banking distress. For a sample of US bank holding companies, we analyse the extent to which distance to default based on market data can be explained using accounting‐based indicators of risk. We show that a larger number of bank fundamentals help predict default for institutions that issue subordinated debt. For banks that issue sub‐debt, we find that higher charter values and low bank capitalizations further increase the power of bank fundamentals to predict default risk.