Can Development Aid Help Promote Foreign Direct Investment? Evidence from Central Asia

There is a continuing debate on the effectiveness of development aid. One less obvious angle on this issue is the question of the likely impact of aid on foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper tests whether aid had any impact on incoming FDI in Central Asian economies during the period 1993–2008. A simple panel model suggests that (a) aid had a moderate complementary effect on inward FDI, (b) there was a crowding‐out effect such that domestic investment reduced FDI stocks, (c) natural resources were a key attraction for private capital, and (d) increases in development aid offset the crowding‐out effect of domestic capital on FDI. It is argued that donors should target aid to enhance the climate for inward investment.     

Global Liquidity and Financial Stress: Evidence from Major Emerging Economies

We examine the relationship between financial stress and global liquidity for the so-called fragile five emerging economies (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey). By using an extensive set of variables that take into account the structural characteristics of these economies, we construct a financial stress index. We then use a Markov regime switching model to identify the high financial stress episodes. We examine periods of heightened financial stress and its relationship to high incidence of domestic and global disturbances. Finally, we construct a global financial liquidity index and assess the relationship between financial stress and global liquidity. Using a bivariate Markov regime switching VAR model, we find a regime-dependent relation between global liquidity and financial stress. Moreover, global liquidity shocks seem to strain these emerging economies in such a way that global illiquidity heightens financial stress.     

The long-term effects of bank recapitalization: Evidence from Indonesia

Do government-sponsored bank recapitalization programs spur lending and reduce risk? This paper assesses the impact of Indonesia’s bank recapitalization program on lending and bank risk following the Asian financial crisis of 1997. Using unique bank-level data, difference-in-differences estimates suggest that recapitalization increased lending (and more so for larger banks), but also boosted bank risk in the long term. Results remain robust to considerations of (1) bank-level differences in political connections, business group affiliation, ownership type, and (2) changes in macroeconomic conditions, capital requirements, accounting regulations, and public credit registry availability.     

De-industrialisation,comparative economic performance and FDI inflows in emerging economies

We address calls to incorporate comparative political economy considerations into IB scholarship. In particular, we conceptualise and test empirically the hitherto unexplored relationship between de-industrialisation and relative performance of groups of countries, and FDI inflows in emerging economies. Using a panel dataset over the period 1996–2004 and employing conceptual and methodological innovations (not least the use of comparative independent variables), we find support for the ideas that relative de-industrialisation of developed economies will increase FDI inflows into emerging economies, while the relative under-performance of developed countries will reduce it. We also find that divergence in business cycles-de-coupling between the two groups of countries fosters FDI inflows in emerging economies. These help explain and predict recent changes in the global business landscape and inform public policy and managerial practice.     

Emerging versus advanced country MNEs investing in Europe: A typology of subsidiary global–local connections

This paper empirically investigates how subsidiaries of multinationals from both emerging (EMNEs) and advanced (AMNEs) economies investing in Europe learn from the local context and contribute to it as much as they benefit from it. To explore this we classify the behavior of MNE subsidiaries into different typologies on the basis of how knowledge is transferred within the multinational and on the nature of the local innovative connections. The empirical analysis relies on an entirely new, subsidiary-level dataset in the industrial machinery sector in Italy and Germany. Results show that EMNEs and AMNEs undertake different strategies for tapping into local knowledge and for transferring it within the company. We identify a new typology of EMNE subsidiary that contributes through its significant local innovative efforts to development processes in the host country. This result suggests possible win-win situations from which novel policy implications may be drawn.     

战略性新兴产业存在规模效应吗?——基于产业分类、政策和产权层面的分析

发展战略性新兴产业已成为转变经济发展方式和推动产业转型与升级的重要环节。战略性新兴产业具有新兴产业特征和战略性产业特征,并且面临产能过剩、无序竞争等问题,因而战略性新兴产业是否具有规模效应,成为该产业能否由幼稚期和成长期过渡到成熟期,并最终成长为支柱性产业的关键。本文利用A股市场的战略性新兴产业上市公司数据,从产业整体、产业分类、政策支持和产权性质的层面分别研究了战略性新兴产业的规模效应。研究结果表明,虽然战略性新兴产业整体呈现显著的规模效应,但是基于七大产业的研究揭示出,部分产业规模效应不显著,甚至呈现规模不经济;政策支持对战略性新兴产业的规模效应的作用是显著的;在产权性质方面,国有企业规模效应不显著,而非国有企业规模效应显著。     

Bringing local socioeconomic context to the analysis of forest owners’ management

Regional and local differences in public perceptions and attitudes towards forestry have often been explained by socio-demography, farming structure, living standard, and other socioeconomic attributes of different geographic locations. These attributes have been used much less to explain regional differences in private forest owners’ objectives and practices. We explore the connection between local patterns of non-industrial private owners’ management practices and the socioeconomic characteristics of the local context. Discriminant linear canonical analysis of data for 2406 owners in 26 rural areas in Portugal allows us to discuss the relevance of the socioeconomic features of local context, such as forest sector economy, agrarian structures, and broader socio-demographic dynamics, to understand the owners’ management practices. Our findings reveal the importance of the features considered, especially socio-demography and agrarian structures. However that importance differs according to the type of forest practice under consideration, i.e., harvesting or bush clearing. This study provides a better understanding of the factors that shape the management practices of forest owners and contributes to improve the design of forest policy to be more adjusted to regional context.     

主要经济体2011年经济形势与货币政策走向分析

该文展望了各主要经济体2011年经济形势与货币政策走向。分析指出,美国政府将维持＂双扩张＂政策,年底之前加息的可能性不大;欧元区复苏缓慢,下半年有可能加息;英国通胀压力增大,可能于上半年加息;日本政府面临减少债务还是克服通缩的两难选择;发展中国家完成退出战略,将进入加息通道。     

人民币汇率与东亚经济体汇率的相关性分析

随着中国经济近年来的快速增长,人民币在周边国家和地区得到了普遍认可。文章通过对8个东亚经济体汇率受其他货币汇率影响情况的实证研究,发现尽管美元影响向力仍为主导,但人民币对这些货币汇率的影响力正在逐步提升。近年来,中国与东亚经济体贸易联系的日益加强和东亚经济体汇率政策的调整,可能是人民币在东亚地区影响力增强的两个主要原因。