Next Target Market for China Automakers?——China Autos Displayed in 101st North American International Auto Show 2008

As a top international show,the North American International Auto Show(NAIAS)is among the most prestigious auto shows in the world.On January 13,2008,in Detroit,the 101st NAIAS unveiled the first auto show of 2008.With the developing strategy of"Going Out"and the innovation on research and technology,China automakers achieved great progress in recent years.In this show,China five automakers including:BYD Auto,Changfeng Group,Geely International Corp,Li Shi Guang Ming Auto Design CO.Ltd,and ZXAuto China(Hebei Zhongxing)attended the NAIAS on January 13 to 27,2008.Changfeng Motor Group and Geely International Corporation made return visits to Detroit while BYD Auto Co.,Chamco and Li Shi Guang Ming appeared for the first time.     

信息不对称条件下经济组织监管方式的分析:对我国公立医院改革模式的讨论

随着我国由计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制的过渡,仍然会有一定数量的国有医院要由国家直接控制经营。并需要相应的治理结构来规范其运行。本文的结果表明,在经济学理论上,公立医院的经营目的决定了产权改革既不是提高其经营绩效的充分条件,也不是必要条件。我们的理论分析否定了“产权优先”的改革观点,而为进一步完善公立医院治理结构的改革步骤提供了理论支持,并给出一定改革措施建议。另外,本文在理论上首次提出了非对称信息企业内部的“信息悖论”问题。这个广泛的结论不仅对于医院的改革是成立的,对于其他具有相同信息特征的企业都有理论意义。     

Paradigm Conflict and the Wealth Effects of Blockholder Formation in Private Target Acquisitions

Decision making in public companies follows an organized structure dominated by risk aversion. The decisions in private entrepreneurial firms tend to be driven by overconfidence and reliance on trial and error. Such entrepreneurial attitudes are reinforced by high levels of profitability. The authors argue that this difference in decision-making paradigms limits the wealth effect of blockholder formation by the profitable private target's owners in mergers and acquisitions. Blockholder formation by private target owners is associated with substantial acquirer shareholder gains in the acquisitions of targets with relatively low and moderate profitability levels. To the opposite, the market reacts to blockholder formation by the owners of highly profitable targets with skepticism. Such announcements are associated with insignificant wealth effects overall and substantial acquirer losses in acquisitions in human capital-intensive sectors whereby disagreements are likely to be consequential. Acquirers understand these wealth effects and reduce the extent of stock financing when acquiring highly profitable targets.     

经济增长目标驱动投资吗?——基于2001-2016年地级市样本的理论分析与实证检验

已有文献发现政府制定的经济目标能够产生经济增长绩效,本文考察政府目标实现经济增长绩效的渠道和机制,提出经济增长目标驱动辖区投资增长的理论假说,并采用2001-2016年地级市政府工作报告公布的经济增长目标数据,对理论假说进行了验证。研究发现,经济增长目标每提高1%,地区投资显著上升约0.44%。这一发现在采用不同的核心变量度量指标、回归样本和估计方法后依然稳健。本文还发现,经济发展阶段和地区发展水平差异导致了目标驱动投资效应的异质性。随着经济发展阶段的转变,经济增长目标推动辖区投资增加的边际效应下降;在经济发展水平较高的东部地区,地方政府所制定的增长目标更有效地扩大了辖区投资。本文的研究发现有助于理解中国经济增长的内在动力机制,可为经济高质量发展转型提供政策启示。     

A hybrid DEA-MOLP model for public school assessment and closure decision in the City of Philadelphia

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is generally used to evaluate past performance and multi objective linear programming (MOLP) is often used to plan for future performance goals. In this study, we establish an equivalence relationship between MOLP problems and combined-oriented DEA models using a direction distance function designed to account for desirable and undesirable inputs and outputs together with uncontrollable variables. This equivalence model can be effectively used to support interactive processes and performance measures designed to establish future performance goals while taking into account the preferences of decision makers (DMs). In particular, it allows DMs to consider different efficiency improvement strategies when subject to budgetary restrictions. The applicability of the proposed method and the efficacy of the procedures and algorithms are demonstrated using a case study where the performance of high schools in the City of Philadelphia is evaluated.     

Do cash flow imbalances facilitate leverage adjustments of Chinese listed firms? Evidence from a dynamic panel threshold model

This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of cash flow on firms’ leverage adjustments. We use a dynamic panel threshold model and estimate it with a newly-developed first-difference GMM approach, which allows endogeneity in both threshold variable and regressors. Employing data of 1054 Chinese listed firms during 2004–2016, we show that Chinese listed firms have leverage targets, towards which they adjust at an average speed of 25.9%. Moreover, firms with larger absolute cash flow adjust towards their leverage targets significantly faster than those with smaller absolute cash flow. This finding is robust to a post-financial crisis sample period, alternative measures of leverage and cash flow, and the incorporation of an additional control variable. We find evidence that cash flow imbalances facilitate leverage adjustments by reducing adjustment costs, and Chinese listed firms rely more on debt issues. These findings provide new insights on firms’ leverage adjustment and cash flow management.     

Valuing foreign exchange rate derivatives with a bounded exchange process

Foreign exchange rates have been subjected to periods of tighter or looser controls as various political and economic forces have waxed and waned. When currencies were backed by gold there were fixed exchange rates. In 1973 floating exchange rates were adopted though many countries did try to keep their currency values within certain ranges. More recently the European Economic Community formalized this practice. Free-floating exchange rates might be well characterized by the lognormal distribution which is standard in option pricing. However, this is probably a poor approximation for exchange rates which are kept within some range by the actions of one or both governments or central banks. This paper develops a model which can be used to value options and other derivative contracts when the underlying exchange rate is bounded in a fixed range (a, b). Methods for pricing both European and American style options are developed.The author would like to thank Ken French and Geert Rouwenhorst for their comments and suggestions.     

一种基于"当前"统计模型的自适应滤波算法

针对机动目标跟踪问题 ,在“当前”统计模型的基础上 ,利用机动加速度与方差的自适应关系 ,提出了一种新的自适应滤波算法。大量仿真结果表明 ,该算法在跟踪机动目标时 ,具有良好的跟踪性能。     

Last‐Chance Earnings Management: Using the Tax Expense to Meet Analysts' Forecasts*

We assert that the tax expense is a powerful context in which to study earnings management, because it is one of the last accounts closed prior to earnings announcements. Although many pre‐tax accruals must be posted in the year‐end general ledger, managers estimate and negotiate tax expense with their auditors immediately prior to earnings announcements. We hypothesize that changes from third‐ to fourth‐quarter effective tax rates (ETRs) are negatively related to whether and how much a firm's earnings absent tax expense management miss analysts' consensus forecast, a proxy for target earnings. We measure earnings absent tax expense management as actual pre‐tax earnings adjusted for the annual ETR reported at the third quarter. We provide robust evidence that firms lower their projected ETRs when they miss the consensus forecast, which is consistent with firms decreasing their tax expense if non‐tax sources of earnings management are insufficient to achieve targets. We also find that firms that exceed earnings targets increase their ETR, but this effect is less significant. By studying the tax expense in total, rather than narrow components of deferred tax expense, our results provide general evidence that reported taxes are used to manage earnings.     

一种机载地面侦察雷达多机动目标跟踪方法

加拿大经济学家巴伯(C.L.Barber)提出的有效保护率概念是对整个产业征税后实际保护程度的一个有效分析工具。但一些不符合现实的假设条件限制了有效保护理论的适用范围。一些著作也就这方面的问题作过探讨,本文在综合一些学者观点的基础上逐步放宽了其所假设的限制条件,使这一理论更加完善,更具现实指导意义。并在此基础上对中国关税结构的优化问题进行简要的分析。