Capital structure dynamics and transitory debt

Firms deliberately but temporarily deviate from permanent leverage targets by issuing transitory debt to fund investment. Leverage targets conservatively embed the option to issue transitory debt, with the evolution of leverage reflecting the sequence of investment outlays. We estimate a dynamic capital structure model with these features and find that it replicates industry leverage very well, explains debt issuances/repayments better than extant tradeoff models, and accounts for the leverage changes accompanying investment “spikes.” It generates leverage ratios with slow average speeds of adjustment to target, which are dampened by intentional temporary movements away from target, not debt issuance costs.     

“十二五”时期新疆经济社会发展问题研究

“十二五”时期，世界经济和金融格局将发生深刻而重大的变化，中国经济也将在调整、振兴和改革之后率先走出危机阴影，步入工业化、城镇化和市场化发展新的上升周期和经济、社会转型的关键时期。这一时期也是新疆在新的起点上加快发展的重要时期，但同时面临的机遇和挑战也将前所未有。因此，本文在对“十二五”时期新疆经济社会发展环境进行分析的基础上，提出了发展战略、发展定位和发展目标，这对科学编制新疆“十二五”规划，推进全面小康社会建设，促进社会和谐发展具有重要意义。     

State ownership and adjustment speed toward target leverage: Evidence from a transitional economy

Using a quantile regression approach and 5,374 Vietnamese firm-year observations from 2000 to 2016, this paper examines the effect of state ownership on the speed of adjustment SOA toward target leverage across various levels of capital structure. The findings consistently show that these effects on SOA vary depending on the leverage level. The relationship is negative for low-leveraged firms, positive for high-leveraged firms, but insignificant in the central area of leverage distribution. Moreover, the negative effects are greater than the positive effects.     

Effects of attention and reliability on the performance of online medical crowdfunding projects: The moderating role of target amount

Medical crowdfunding platform helps numerous patients access enthusiastic donors and address financial difficulties, but many crowdfunding projects fail to reach their target amount. Thus, how a crowdfunding project can attract considerable donors is questionable. This study examines the effects of attention and reliability on the performance of online medical crowdfunding projects and how target amount changes such effects. Based on objective data of 1177 crowdfunding projects from 2016 to January 2018 in a large medical crowdfunding platform in China, we find that the project donor’s attention (the number of forwards and comments) and reliability (the number of dynamic updates, empirical users, and pictures) positively affect the medical crowdfunding performance of the projects. However, target amount weakens the positive effects of the number of forwards and comments in online medical crowdfunding projects. Therefore, project sponsors should set reasonable target fundraising amounts while showing attention and reliability to donors. Compared with previous research that mainly explores the influence of external factors on crowdfunding outcomes from the perspective of donors, this paper focuses on the internal project factors and explores the concerns and trustworthiness of crowdfunding projects, enriching the literature related to fundraising ability in the project.     

基于模糊综合评判法的技术并购目标企业评价实证研究

本文在分析并购目标企业价值评估方法的理论研究基础上,对技术并购中的目标企业评价进行研究。在技术并购的基本理论原则下,通过选取合适的评价指标,建立了技术并购目标企业评价指标体系。随后,采用模糊数学的方法,借助专家打分,获得了各项指标的权重,进而完成了技术并购中目标企业评价模型的构建。最后运用企业技术并购案例进行了实证研究。实证研究的结果表明,本文建立的目标企业评价模型具有一定的实用性,有助于企业分析判断技术并购的可行性。     

我国大学会计教育的思考与探究——基于会计毕业生的回访调查

本文采用调查分析法,探索我国大学会计教育改革问题。在对毕业生回访调查结果分析后发现,我国大学会计教育目标、实践性教学与社会需要的专门人才还存在着一定的距离。笔者结合多年来教改实践,对我国大学会计教育进行了探索与思考,试图为完善我国大学会计教育改革提供一些思路。     

澳洲经济背景下的三大货币指数比较研究

本文在模拟澳州经济背景下。通过对迪维西亚指数、费雪理想指数以及动量货币指数的比较分析发现：三者在自身稳定性方面并无特别差异．但从宏观经济预测效果判断，动量货币由于兼得数量和速度双重因子，其总体表现要优于其他两者。这一结论具有重要的理论和现实意义，既为货币交易速度复归提供了有力的理论支撑，也为货币政策中介目标的选择提供了新的参考样本。     

Credibility in the EMS: new evidence using nonlinear forecastability tests

The paper reports estimates of a reliable fundamental value of the S&P index, standing for a long run target value in Error-Correction Modelling of the dynamics of subsequent returns. The Present Value Model suggests two fundamentals: dividends and a discount rate factor, specified as a risk free rate plus an ex ante risk premium, to capture structural breaks in the expectations. The dates of the shifts are identified by estimating recursively a cointegration relationship. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compute appropriate statistics for stationarity tests. The predictive performance of the Error-Correcting Model is then used to implement winning portfolio-investment strategies.     

会展投资环境评价模型及指标体系设计研究

会展投资环境研究是为投资会展业决策提供科学依据的过程,是投资会展业前的重要准备工作。本文从会展投资环境评价指标体系的构建着手,对投资环境指标体系及分析模型进行了初步探讨。     

The Fear Premium and Daily Comovements of the S&P 500 E/P ratio and Treasury Yields before and during the 2008 Financial Crisis

I develop a new risk measure called the Total Fear Premium that generalizes Faugere‐Van Erlach (2009) and accounts for both flight‐to‐safety and flight‐to‐liquidity behavior. This new measure helps to explain why the daily S&P 500 forward earnings yield (E/P ratio) is strongly negatively correlated with daily Treasury yields of all maturities during the 2008 financial crisis, which is a reversal from the relation that prevailed before the crisis. The Total Fear Premium “mimics” the VIX during the financial crisis. Once the basic GARCH formulation modeling the interaction between the earnings yield and Treasury yields is augmented with the Total Fear Premium, the relation between the earnings yield and short‐term Treasury yields becomes significantly positive, in line with Fama's (1975) view that short‐term yields are good proxies for expected inflation. Two by‐products of this analysis are: 1) a new risk premium measure associated with flight‐to‐liquidity and 2) a new way to measure the inflation risk premium on a daily basis.