外资进入和我国企业的生产率：“溢出”抑或“挤出”效应

我国改革和开放是同时推进的，引进了众多外资企业来推动我国经济发展。那么，外资企业的进入是否有助于我国内资企业的成长？本文分析我国工业企业超大样本数据，探讨外资进入的影响，研究我国内资企业的生产率能否向效率前沿收敛。结果发现，我国不同类型的内资企业均存在效率前沿的收敛趋势，内外资企业生产率差距不断缩小。外资进入对我国内资企业的短期影响主要表现为溢出效应，但是对于同行业的其他外资企业呈现挤出效应，特别是其他独资外企。我们进一步发现外资进入的长期影响是挤出效应，但是对于国有企业和民营企业的影响却不尽相同。     

Strategic location choice under dynamic oligopolistic competition and spillovers

This paper investigates firms׳ optimal location choices explicitly accounting for the role of inwards and outwards knowledge spillovers in a dynamic Cournot oligopoly with firms that are heterogeneous in their ability to carry out cost-reducing R&D. Firms can either locate in an industrial cluster or in isolation. Technological spillovers are exchanged between the firms located in the cluster. It is shown that a technological leader has an incentive to locate in isolation only if her advantage exceeds a certain threshold, which is increasing in firms׳ discount rate, in industry dispersion, and in the intensity of knowledge spillovers. Scenarios are identified where although it is optimal for the technological leader to locate in isolation, from a welfare perspective it would be desirable that she locates in the cluster.     

技术进步与效率改善的一种新测度方法

本文利用非参数路径收敛设计,建立了测度政府投入驱动经济增长效率的方法。基于浙江省级公立医院2005~2008年的数据,本文发现经典的Malquist指数和线性回归估计方法无法识别政府投入对技术进步和效率改善的影响。研究表明,2005年5月至2006年10月和2008年7月至2008年12月期间,政府投入显著促进了浙江省级公立医院技术进步,生产率大幅提升;然而,在2006年10月至2008年7月期间政府投入失败。这一结果不仅论证了本文测度方法的有效性和应用的可行性,同时也纠正了投入产出比导致的直观错误判断。     

How are Africa's emerging stock markets related to advanced markets? Evidence from copulas

The finance literature provides ample evidence that diversification benefits hinges on dependence between assets returns. A notable feature of the recent financial crisis is the extent to which assets that had hitherto moved mostly independently suddenly moved together resulting in joint losses in most advanced markets. This provides grounds to uncover the relative potential of African markets to provide diversification benefits by means of their correlation with advanced markets. Therefore, we examine the dependence structure between advanced and emerging African stock markets using copulas. Several findings are documented. First, dependence is time-varying and weak for most African markets, except South Africa. Second, we find evidence of asymmetric dependence, suggesting that stock return comovement varies in bearish and bullish markets. Third, extreme downward stock price movements in the advanced markets do not have significant spillover effects on Africa’s emerging stock markets. Our results, implying that African markets, with the exception of South Africa, are immune to risk spillover from advanced markets, improves the extant literature and have implications for portfolio diversification and risk management.     

Oil price shocks and volatility spillovers in the Nigerian sovereign bond market

This paper investigates volatility spillover in the Nigerian sovereign bond market arising from oil price shocks, using Vector Autoregressive Moving Average ‐ Asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (VARMA‐AGARCH) model. The paper covers the period March 22, 2011 to April 14, 2016 and makes use of the daily data of the Nigerian Sovereign Bond, Brent oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), respectively. We endogenously and sequentially detect structural break points using the test of Bai and Perron (2003) framework. In order to accurately estimate the model, we modify it by incorporating the break points into the VARMA‐AGARCH model, a process which if ignored would lead to model misspecification. The results obtained demonstrate a significant cross‐market volatility transmission between oil and sovereign bond market with ample sensitivity to structural breaks. The study also computes optimum weight portfolio and hedge ratio both with and without structural breaks and results equally indicate sensitivity to structural breaks.     

国家重点科技资源支撑区域创新经济产出的空间差异研究

根据2011-2014年科技部《国家重点科技基础条件资源调查表》以及国家统计年鉴数据,首先,使用赫芬达尔指数定量描述了利用国家重点科技资源进行创新活动的非均衡性。其次,使用网络DEA方法,实证分析了2012-2014年中国(内地)各省份国家重点科技资源对区域创新发展的支撑作用。研究表明,国家重点科技资源对区域创新发展的支撑作用不仅取决于资源创新生产阶段,而且受制于重点科技资源支持下的区域创新发展阶段。重点科技资源的支撑作用还有较大提升空间,70%的省份创新成果转化能力有待提高,且大部分省份的国家重点科技资源未实现优化配置。此外,全国及东部、中部和西部国家重点科技资源对区域创新发展的支撑效率不存在绝对收敛趋势。     

Corporate governance,environmental regulations,and technological change

This paper investigates the relationship between environmental regulations and innovation by focusing on the automobile industry in a cross-country setting. We provide empirical evidence that the presence of agency problems mitigates the negative effects of environmental regulations on overall R&D activity, which leads to full compensation when the degree of agency problems is sufficiently high. Guiding our empirical analysis, we provide a general model consistent with the structure of existing ownership data. Specifically, we model ownership structure as a combination of two extreme corporate governance types. On the one extreme there are profit maximizers, and on the other extreme there are managers who are only concerned with their private benefits. The model leads to a simple country level ownership indicator and shows that if an economy is dominated by firms with higher agency problems, then pollution tax might even increase overall R&D, while reducing pollution. According to our estimations, such an outcome is possible only for out-of-sample values of the ownership indicator, where the degree of agency problems is extremely high.     

Product design strategies in technological shifts: An explorative study of Italian design-driven companies

This article analyzes the relationship between technological shift and product design strategies in the Italian lighting industry, where design players have experienced a discontinuous technological shift due to the introduction of LED (Light Emitting Diode) technology.     

Emptying the future: On the environmental politics of anticipation

Anticipation may be seen as structured by images and representations, an approach that has informed recent work in science and technology studies on the sociology of expectations. But anticipation, as a capacity or characteristic, is not solely manifested in the form of representations, even where such representations of the ‘not yet’ are performative in nature. It also comprises material capacities, technological, biophysical and affective in nature. The politics of anticipation is shaped by how these symbolic and material capacities, and the forms of agency they make possible, are distributed. As anticipation is an environmentally distributed capacity, it is suggested that the politics of anticipation is also an environmental politics. A conceptual framework for analysing anticipation as comprised of environmental capabilities is introduced, and fleshed out using a case study of energy infrastructure planning from the UK. Key elements of this framework include the concepts of anticipatory assemblages and future horizons or ‘styles’ of anticipation. Working through the case study as an empirical example of a conflict concerning the politics of anticipation and of ‘environments’, it is demonstrated how the relationships between styles of anticipation are materially constitutive of such conflicts.     

The source of global stock market risk: A viewpoint of economic policy uncertainty

This study explores the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in four countries or regions (China, Japan, Europe, and the United States) on the contagion risk of investments in the global stock market. The stock returns of 22 stock markets worldwide are analyzed to determine which region’s EPU exhibits the greatest effect on regional systematic risk in the global stock market and on volatility risk in individual stock markets. First, all of the samples, the markets of different continents and the spillover indices of the developed and emerging markets, are calculated to observe the dynamic correlation among these markets with the aim of quantifying regional systematic risk and further examining the contagion risk effect of EPU. The results indicate the following: EPU in China is the most influential, and its contagion risk spreads to different regional markets, except for Europe; the effect of EPU in the United States is inferior to that in China; EPU in Japan merely influences contagion risk in emerging markets; contagion risk in European markets is not influenced by the four EPU indices; and EPU in Europe is not influenced by contagion risk in the global stock market. However, according to the volatility risk in each market, the EPU in Europe and China respectively influence Asian countries and European countries the most. These results may be attributable to the extremely high trade dependence among these countries because the performance of international enterprises is mainly determined by the economic policies of their trading partners.