Learning by doing,spillovers and shakeouts

This paper studies industry evolution driven by non strategic learning by doing and spillovers. We characterize a dynamic process of cost and output changes and its effect on welfare and industry profits. The paper gives conditions for shakeouts to occur and analyzes the key factors affecting these conditions. Since shakeouts could lead to a long-run social loss due to higher market concentration, there is a role for a government to play in limiting unnecessary shakeouts. The most effective way to do so is to enhance spillovers.JEL Classification: L11, L13, O31Correspondence to: Michael TroegeWe would like to thank Hans Mewis, Christophe Moussu and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and suggestions. We also benefited from comments of seminar participants at WZB, Humboldt University, Northwestern University and the EEA/ESEM 1999 meetings. Part of the research was carried out while Michael Tröge was visiting Northwestern University. Financial support by the German Research Council (DFG) is gratefully acknowledged.     

高新技术企业融资方式、治理结构与技术创新能力关系研究

高新技术产业的发展对全球经济产生了重要的推动作用,但对于高新技术企业而言,制约其发展的一个重要障碍就是融资问题。风险投资是一种特殊的投资形式,与传统的债务融资对比,风险投资不仅为企业提供必要资金,还会参与企业的内部管理,对企业的治理结构产生影响,进而影响企业的技术创新能力。     

FDI与技术垂直溢出：基于动态面板数据模型的检验

本文选取2003～2007年的行业面板数据,采用基于GMM估计的动态面板数据模型方法,对FDI与我国15个工业部门生产技术水平间的溢出效应进行了实证检验,结果表明技术溢出带来的技术效率的提高与我国工业部门自身前期技术水平积累具有密切相关性,FDI的行业内溢出效应不太明显,而行业间垂直溢出效应显著,是重要的技术溢出途径。为此,应该鼓励本地企业融入外资产业链,以提升技术水平。     

企业同质化对产业集群技术创新的影响与对策

我国产业集群以中小企业为主体,企业同质化现象较为普遍。以浙江产业集群发展中的企业同质化现象为研究对象,分析了高同质性在产业集群技术创新过程中所产生的促进和阻滞作用,从高同质性对技术创新正反两方面的影响探讨了趋利避害的对策措施。     

气候变化政策中的技术变迁模型

技术变迁对于减缓和适应气候变化起着至关重要的作用。对近年来关于气候变化政策模型研究中的技术变迁处理方法进行了回顾。气候变化政策模型中广泛应用的有"自下而上"和"自上而下"两种方法,前者强调对能源系统细节的、技术性的处理方法,后者强调理论上对整个经济体的一致性描述。自下而上和自上而下模型都是为了帮助设计温室气体的减排政策,但是两种模型都依赖于对能源替代性和技术变迁动力学的过于简单的假设。通过对气候变化政策分析中常用的综合性模型进行归纳,总结不同模型的前提假设和模型中处理技术变迁的不同方法,以及不同的计算方法。     

我国普通高校科技创新社会影响力的测度——基于2000—2007年国家科技奖励三大奖项的统计分析

国家科技奖励是我国科学技术的最高奖项,具备较高的评价功能。高校已成为国家科技奖励的主要授奖对象,其科技创新社会影响力可以通过国家科技奖励的成果数量来表征。根据各奖项的权重值、计算公式和数据处理规则,以2000—2007年国家科技奖励三大奖项的获奖项目数为基础,可以测算出高校科技创新社会影响力及其排名。研究结果表明,高水平研究型大学的科技创新社会影响力非常大,在国家的科技创新方面发挥了很重要的作用,是国家创新体系的重要组成部分。     

大企业集群核心技术自主创新的动力机制实证研究

从大企业集群的宏观、中观和微观3个维度,提出了大企业集群核心技术自主创新的动力机制理论。以青岛家电大企业集群为典型的成功案例,分析了青岛家电大企业集群核心技术自主创新动力来源的成功经验,并指出其不足之处和提升对策。     

Climate reversals and the transition to agriculture

The transition to agriculture is generally acknowledged to be the economic foundation for population growth over the last 10,000 years and for modern civilization itself. Dates for pristine transitions to agriculture have become a key input into empirical work on economic growth over the very long run. We propose a model of the transition in which population and technology respond endogenously to climate. The available data on the southwest Asian case, other cases of pristine transition, and cases of non-transition are consistent with our model, but often inconsistent with rival explanations. In addition, our theory of the origins of agriculture has implications for instrumental variable strategies that can be used in empirical research on long run economic growth and development.      

Optimal Timing of Climate Change Policy: Interaction Between Carbon Taxes and Innovation Externalities

This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) on the timing of climate change policy. We develop a model with a stock pollutant (carbon dioxide) and abatement technological change through R&D, and we use the model to study the interaction between carbon taxes and innovation externalities. Our analysis shows that the timing of optimal emission reduction policy strongly depends on the set of policy instruments available. When climate-specific R&D targeting instruments are available, policy has to use these to step up early innovation. When these instruments are not available, policy has to steer innovation through creating demand for emission saving technologies. That is, carbon taxes should be high compared to the Pigouvian levels when the abatement industry is developing. Finally, we calibrate the model in order to explore the magnitude of the theoretical findings within the context of climate change policy.      

生产者视角下军民融合技术成果转化关键问题研究——基于知识网络案例分析

军民融合发展已上升为国家战略,在科技领域,军民融合技术成果转化是实现军民融合发展的重要途径。由于军民融合技术的特殊性,现有军民融合技术成果转化效率不高。在现有研究中,鲜有以理论模型为依据,系统解析军民融合技术成果转化全流程核心问题。知识网络模型是分析多要素参与复杂过程的有效方法,可用来分析多要素参与的军民融合技术成果转化过程。基于军民融合技术成果转化涉及的信息、技术、资本、人力、组织和社会环境6个要素,构建军民融合技术成果转化知识网络模型,采用该模型进行案例分析,指出现阶段军民融合技术成果转化存在的问题。研究结论对于推动我国军民融合创新技术成果转化、加快军民融合创新发展具有重要现实意义。