A review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies

Transitioning towards a sustainable energy system requires the large-scale introduction of novel energy demand and supply technologies. Such novel technologies are often expensive at the point of their market introduction but eventually become cheaper due to technological learning. In order to quantify potentials for price and cost decline, the experience curve approach has been extensively applied to renewable and non-renewable energy supply technologies. However, its application to energy demand technologies is far less frequent. Here, we provide the first comprehensive review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies. We find a widespread trend towards declining prices and costs at an average learning rate of 18 ± 9%. This finding is consistent with the results for energy supply technologies and for manufacturing in general. Learning rates for individual energy demand technologies are symmetrically distributed around the arithmetic mean of the data sample. Absolute variation of learning rates within individual technology clusters of 7 ± 4%-points and between technology clusters of 7 ± 5%-points both contribute to the overall variability of learning rates. Our results show that technological learning is as important for energy demand technologies as it is for energy supply technologies. Applying the experience curve approach to forecast technology costs involves, however, unresolved uncertainties, as we demonstrate in a case study for the micro-cogeneration technology.     

社会和谐：转型期社会建设的重要价值目标

社会和谐是指社会关系中的各种要素处于相互依存、相互协调、相互促进的状态，表现为人际关系和谐、人与社会关系和谐、人与自然关系和谐、人自身和谐四种形式。紧迫性、前瞻性和远景性是影响我国社会和谐的三种形态。因此，促进社会和谐，应从解决那些已经和正在危及社会和谐的问题．解决和消除那些可能危及社会和谐的隐患以及构建一种合理的社会结构三个层面着手。     

Life after school: How science and technology teachers construe capability

Science and technology teachers create microcosms of the world beyond school as responses to perceived student needs. The focus of these microcosms for both science and technology classrooms was less of a concern for work preparation than for the development of social and intellectual habits. All of the teachers have strong views of the virtues of civil daily life and what it might take for their students to live the good life. The practical capability the teachers want their students to have transcends the instrumental to become moral.     

Embodying Embodiment in a Structural,Macroeconomic Input-Output Model

In this paper, I develop a regression-based system of labour productivity equations that account for capital-embodied technological change and I incorporate this system into IDLIFT, a structural, macroeconomic input-output model of the US economy. Builders of regression-based forecasting models have long had difficulty finding labour productivity equations that exhibit the "Solowian' property that movements in investment should cause accompanying movements in labour productivity. The production theory developed by Solow and others dictates that this causation is driven by the effect of traditional capital deepening as well as technological change embodied in capital. Lack of measurement of the latter has hampered the ability of researchers to estimate properly the productivity-investment relationship. Recent research by Wilson (2001) has alleviated this difficulty by estimating industry-level embodied technological change. In this paper, I utilize those estimates to construct capital stocks adjusted for technological change and then use these adjusted stocks to estimate Solow-type labour productivity equations. It is shown that replacing IDLIFT's former productivity equations, based on changes in output and time trends, with the new equations, results in a convergence between the dynamic behaviour of the model and that predicted by traditional (Solowian) production theory.     

联合确定基数合约:对魏茨曼模型的一个改进

本文针对国内外委托代理理论主要局限于理论分析层面而实用性不强的特点,在概要评论有关利润基数确定的相关文献的基础上,通过对美国一家公司委托代理实际案例的研究,提出了旨在能够解决实际委托代理关系的"联合确定基数法"。文章分析了联合确定基数法与棘轮效应模型的区别和联系,以数学方法论证了联合确定基数法的若干命题,描述了公司利润基数确定的利益诱导机制,并对比分析了联合确定基数法与西方教科书中的"激励设计模型"。本文试图以联合确定基数法为核心内容的一次性动态模型,代替蕴含着讨价还价过程的多次性动态模型。     

竞争对手随机进入具有随机寿命创新项目价值评估

在考虑了行业内不完全市场竞争条件下,竞争对手的随机进入及新技术随机出现对项目投资机会的价值影响,假设标的资产服从跳--扩散过程,获得了技术创新成果转化项目的投资机会的价值的模型.研究结果表明,若忽视行业中不完全市场竞争、竞争对手随机进入及新技术随机出现的影响,将会造成投资项目价值的不合理的估计.     

日元升值对日本进出口贸易的影响及其对我国的启示

20世纪70年代以来日元升值与日本对外贸易的关系表明:从短期看日元剧烈升值对日本对外贸易造成一定的冲击,但日本政府和企业采取相应措施缓解了日元升值对其带来的负面影响,即通过调整产业结构、加强科技创新、发展对外直接投资等措施来化解矛盾;从长期看日元升值并没有给日本对外贸易的增长造成实质性影响。研究日元升值与日本对外贸易间的关系,对同样面临人民币升值压力的我国具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system

This paper examines the impact that a currency target zone has on short-term interest rates. For a number of countries in the European Monetary System, we characterize the short rate using a regime-switching model that allows for a differently parameterized mean-reverting square-root process in each regime. We find that the volatility, the level, and the speed-of-adjustment are all higher in the regime that is operative during speculative attacks and currency crises. Moreover, we allow the conditional probability of being in each regime to be state-dependent so the model can be used to examine questions relating to the likelihood of realignments and the stability of the target zone system.     

地面雷达动目标自动识别分类研究

本文介绍了地面雷达动目标自动识别分类研究成果，该成果在大量试验的基础上，运用回波多普勒信号的频谱特性，实现了动目标的自动识别与分类，其准确率达到８５％以上。     

亚洲四小技术创新及其启示

科技进步是当代经济增长的基本动力 ,而创新是科技进步的基本形式。亚洲四小龙——韩国、台湾、新加坡、香港 ,特别是前三者在技术创新方面走在了其他发展中国家的前面。本文主要是考察亚洲四小作为技术后来者怎样进行技术创新的 :1 通过技术学习、吸收和获取工业发达国家先进的科技成果作为创新的基础 ;2 把发展外向型经济同技术学习紧密结合在一起 ;3 技术学习和技术创新不断深化和提高 ,从简单到复杂 ,从低级到高级 ;4 沿着逆国际产品生命周期轨迹进行创新等等。亚洲四小技术创新的经验对其他所有发展中国家的经济都有参考意义