总量均衡区间与宏观调控应确立的若干新原则

现代市场经济条件下,供给方调整其生产规模所需的成本可称为调节成本。由于存在调节成本,传统分析中的“总量均衡中心点”两侧便分别存在着“低位临界点”与“高位临界点”,这两点界定了一个特殊的“总量均衡区间”。“总量均衡区间”的出现对宏观调控将产生诸多重要影响,使之面临一系列新问题、新挑战。为有效应对这种新情况,在宏观调控实践中有必要相应地确立“近似均衡原则”、“适度超前原则”、“临界点原则”、“供给方原则”。     

中国企业的技术选择

本文以“企业技术能力”研究范式为基础 ,运用技术学习战略决定的数理模型 ,从理论角度剖析了现实企业选择技术学习战略的动因。并以案例为实证 ,探究了中国企业技术选择的行为机理 ,提出了相关对策。     

Refining the debate on GM crops using technological foresight—the Danish experience

Rapid developments in and the controversial nature of biotechnology call for communication, networks, partnerships, and collaboration in research, not just among researchers, but also between researchers and research “users” in industry, government, and elsewhere. Technological foresight appears to offer a coordinating method for developing and strengthening those linkages. To test this, a technological foresight study was performed on genetically modified (GM) crop technology in the Danish context. The background of the study was the conflict and intense debate in Denmark over applications of gene technology, especially over the deliberate release of genetically modified (GM) crops. However, the current debate characteristically involves sharply opposed fronts, lacking willingness and courage to engage in a free-flowing and open-minded debate on both rational and normative components of biosafety. In it, stakeholders and experts on both side of the conflict advocate widely differing opinions. Without a proper generally intelligible dialogue, the broader public audience finds it hard to comprehend this type of debate. The study pursues the notion that public dialogue can act as a driver of future applications in the technological domain, specifically GM crops. The study concluded with a stakeholder workshop that revealed three key issues that might provide helpful starting points for a more free-flowing and open-minded debate about the future of GM crops. The issues were those arising from the following statements: a broad perspective on risk is crucial; international regulation must make allowance for developing countries; a better configuration of the risk debate is needed. These issues are discussed in more details in the article.     

发展技术创新能力走出低层次技术引进误区

本文针对我国的技术引进已进入低层次技术引进误区的情况，分析了跌入技术落后陷阱的原因；并介绍了日本和印度发展自主创新能力技术引进的经验；最后重点指出了我国要大力发展技术创新能力的重要性并提出五条对策思路。     

The potential benefits of herbicide-resistant transgenic rice in Uruguay: Lessons for small developing countries

In many developing countries, the potential benefits from adopting a transgenic variety developed by a multinational corporation are limited by the crop’s small production base. This paper presents an ex-ante evaluation of the economic impact of herbicide resistant transgenic rice in a small developing country, Uruguay. To fully account for the multinational’s market power, the firm’s seed markup is assumed to affect the adoption rate for the variety. Stochastic simulation techniques are employed to understand how potential benefits may vary with changes in technology, yield, costs, and adoption parameters. The results indicate a $1.82 million mean net present value for producers from the development and utilization of transgenic rice in Uruguay and $0.55 million for the multinational. These relatively small multinational firm benefits suggest that a firm will not undertake significant efforts to develop transgenic varieties adapted to local conditions without either strategic partnerships with local institutions or access to wider regional markets.     

Role of formal standards in transition to the technology frontier: Korean ICT systems

According to traditional wisdom, latecomer countries improve their technological capabilities in reverse of the product cycle, that is from mature towards new technologies. However, improvement of standards capabilities in this process has not been revealed clearly. This paper confirms similar patterns for improving formal standards capabilities as for the technological capabilities, but records some possible differences in the rate of catch-up when latecomers approach the technology frontier; a forward moving position where technology leaders (typically advanced countries) develop or conceptualize new technologies before being turned into products or systems. A number of case studies of South Korean ICT systems reveal that transition to the technological frontier is increasingly related to how they target and carry out formal standardization. The common elements driving differences in rates of successful catch-up for ICT systems standards are not only limited to generic standards capabilities, but also rely on characteristics of technology trajectories, national strategic focus, and organizing for standardization.³ This implies that a nation should not be discouraged by slow progress in standards-setting during earlier stages. Once a minimum level of capabilities is achieved, a nation pro-active in standards from the beginning may attain higher rates of catch-up near the technology frontier.     

The determinants of FTA use in Southeast Asia: A firm-level analysis

The spread of free trade agreements (FTAs) in Southeast Asia has ignited a debate about their impact on enterprises including the business costs from the Asian ‘noodle bowl’ effect. This paper undertakes a comparative and firm-level analysis of the determinants of FTA use in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. The likelihood of firms using important ASEAN+1 FTAs (e.g. the ASEAN-China FTA, the ASEAN-Japan FTA and ASEAN-Korea FTA) is positively associated with acquiring knowledge about FTAs, building technological capabilities, and membership in industrial clusters. Non-use of FTAs is explained by a lack of information about FTAs and the absence of FTAs with major trading partners. Key policy implications are the need to improve business support for FTAs, to conclude FTAs with major trading partners, and to create a database on FTA preference use.     

Strategic location choice under dynamic oligopolistic competition and spillovers

This paper investigates firms׳ optimal location choices explicitly accounting for the role of inwards and outwards knowledge spillovers in a dynamic Cournot oligopoly with firms that are heterogeneous in their ability to carry out cost-reducing R&D. Firms can either locate in an industrial cluster or in isolation. Technological spillovers are exchanged between the firms located in the cluster. It is shown that a technological leader has an incentive to locate in isolation only if her advantage exceeds a certain threshold, which is increasing in firms׳ discount rate, in industry dispersion, and in the intensity of knowledge spillovers. Scenarios are identified where although it is optimal for the technological leader to locate in isolation, from a welfare perspective it would be desirable that she locates in the cluster.     

技术进步与效率改善的一种新测度方法

本文利用非参数路径收敛设计,建立了测度政府投入驱动经济增长效率的方法。基于浙江省级公立医院2005~2008年的数据,本文发现经典的Malquist指数和线性回归估计方法无法识别政府投入对技术进步和效率改善的影响。研究表明,2005年5月至2006年10月和2008年7月至2008年12月期间,政府投入显著促进了浙江省级公立医院技术进步,生产率大幅提升;然而,在2006年10月至2008年7月期间政府投入失败。这一结果不仅论证了本文测度方法的有效性和应用的可行性,同时也纠正了投入产出比导致的直观错误判断。     

国家重点科技资源支撑区域创新经济产出的空间差异研究

根据2011-2014年科技部《国家重点科技基础条件资源调查表》以及国家统计年鉴数据,首先,使用赫芬达尔指数定量描述了利用国家重点科技资源进行创新活动的非均衡性。其次,使用网络DEA方法,实证分析了2012-2014年中国(内地)各省份国家重点科技资源对区域创新发展的支撑作用。研究表明,国家重点科技资源对区域创新发展的支撑作用不仅取决于资源创新生产阶段,而且受制于重点科技资源支持下的区域创新发展阶段。重点科技资源的支撑作用还有较大提升空间,70%的省份创新成果转化能力有待提高,且大部分省份的国家重点科技资源未实现优化配置。此外,全国及东部、中部和西部国家重点科技资源对区域创新发展的支撑效率不存在绝对收敛趋势。