Multinational firms, international trade and international telecommunications

The study analyses the determinants of international telephone, telex, telegram and leased lines communication between the United States and 46 countries. It focusses on the role of multinational firms, international trading firms and new information technologies within the framework of the theory of transaction costs.Results of the econometric estimates suggest that: (a) technological conditions of telecommunication infrastructure, i.e., international diffusion lags of new information technologies, play an important role in the explanation of international telephone and telex telecommunication flows but not in the demand for telegraph and leased lines, (b) multinational firms use international telecommunication to reduce the coordination costs and are strong customers of leased lines and telephones, but less so of telex and telegrams, (c) international trading firms exhibit less clear preferences in the use of the different media to reduce transaction costs.     

The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.     

西部物流资源的优化配置研究

对西部物流资源的特点进行了分析，提出了西部物流资源优化配置的思路，研究了促进西部物流资源配置的重点措施，并用一些实例进行了说明。     

提高IT资源贡献率与配置水平的研究

文章在分析国、内外信息资源应用的基础上，梳理了规模经济弱化、需求锁定、投资黑洞以及风险、贬值等不可忽视因素，阐述了原评审的不足以及建立新的IT资源论证模型的必然要求。基于IT资源共享与整合效应，研制更符合信息资源发展特点的论证体系，以促进其以节约和可持续方式发展。     

中国企业的技术选择

本文以“企业技术能力”研究范式为基础 ,运用技术学习战略决定的数理模型 ,从理论角度剖析了现实企业选择技术学习战略的动因。并以案例为实证 ,探究了中国企业技术选择的行为机理 ,提出了相关对策。     

Refining the debate on GM crops using technological foresight—the Danish experience

Rapid developments in and the controversial nature of biotechnology call for communication, networks, partnerships, and collaboration in research, not just among researchers, but also between researchers and research “users” in industry, government, and elsewhere. Technological foresight appears to offer a coordinating method for developing and strengthening those linkages. To test this, a technological foresight study was performed on genetically modified (GM) crop technology in the Danish context. The background of the study was the conflict and intense debate in Denmark over applications of gene technology, especially over the deliberate release of genetically modified (GM) crops. However, the current debate characteristically involves sharply opposed fronts, lacking willingness and courage to engage in a free-flowing and open-minded debate on both rational and normative components of biosafety. In it, stakeholders and experts on both side of the conflict advocate widely differing opinions. Without a proper generally intelligible dialogue, the broader public audience finds it hard to comprehend this type of debate. The study pursues the notion that public dialogue can act as a driver of future applications in the technological domain, specifically GM crops. The study concluded with a stakeholder workshop that revealed three key issues that might provide helpful starting points for a more free-flowing and open-minded debate about the future of GM crops. The issues were those arising from the following statements: a broad perspective on risk is crucial; international regulation must make allowance for developing countries; a better configuration of the risk debate is needed. These issues are discussed in more details in the article.     

发展技术创新能力走出低层次技术引进误区

本文针对我国的技术引进已进入低层次技术引进误区的情况，分析了跌入技术落后陷阱的原因；并介绍了日本和印度发展自主创新能力技术引进的经验；最后重点指出了我国要大力发展技术创新能力的重要性并提出五条对策思路。     

The potential benefits of herbicide-resistant transgenic rice in Uruguay: Lessons for small developing countries

In many developing countries, the potential benefits from adopting a transgenic variety developed by a multinational corporation are limited by the crop’s small production base. This paper presents an ex-ante evaluation of the economic impact of herbicide resistant transgenic rice in a small developing country, Uruguay. To fully account for the multinational’s market power, the firm’s seed markup is assumed to affect the adoption rate for the variety. Stochastic simulation techniques are employed to understand how potential benefits may vary with changes in technology, yield, costs, and adoption parameters. The results indicate a $1.82 million mean net present value for producers from the development and utilization of transgenic rice in Uruguay and $0.55 million for the multinational. These relatively small multinational firm benefits suggest that a firm will not undertake significant efforts to develop transgenic varieties adapted to local conditions without either strategic partnerships with local institutions or access to wider regional markets.     

现代制造系统环境下的质量信息技术

企业为了确保在激烈的市场竞争中取胜，必须运用信息技术、计算机技术等先进技术提高企业质量管理的水平，增强质量保证和质量控制的有效性。现代制造技术系统CIMS的质量保证系统是在网络数据库的支持下，从产品设计、开发，到售后服务全生命周期中对质量有关的数据进行有效的采集、处理、评价和决策，对质量管理、质量保证、质量控制活动进行有效的管理，实现企业质量管理的整体优化．以达到全面满足顾客要求，提高市场竞争能力的目的。     

计算机Linux网络操作系统特点及服务器配置

Linux系统作为一款网络操作系统,它具有很好的网络操作功能,网络操作系统(NOS)是网络的心脏和灵魂,是向网络计算机提供服务的特殊的操作系统。