中小企业融资理论研究综述

根据国外有关企业融资的理论,就以下两个方面对中小企业融资需求理论进行了综述:(1)小企业是否存在信贷配给、程度如何以及关系型贷款之于小企业债务融资的重要意义;(2)货币政策、金融自由化、银行业合并及结构调整等宏观经济政策对于小企业融资的影响。认为目前国内的理论研究主要集中在中小企业融资难的症结分析与融资渠道的选择上,今后研究的重点应放在如何构建适合国情的中小企业融资体系上。     

浅谈中小金融机构与民营企业关系型融资

随着我国金融体制改革,中小金融机构蓬勃发展,其发展使得原来民营企业融资问题得到极大改善.对此我们分析得出:中小金融机构对民营企业融资存在着关系型融资的特征,并因此改善了民营企业融资环境,促进了民营经济发展.     

技术特征不同行业中FDI技术外溢效果的考察——基于非参数分析方法的研究

本文通过非参数性方法得到全要素生产率,考察了FDI对我国工业行业技术进步的影响。发现FDI外溢效果在科技含量高的行业中较为明显,在低科技行业中效果较差。并且通过进一步观察发现在外溢效果显著的行业中,技术外溢效果的显著性排名与行业中内资部门的技术进步排名高度吻合。因此我们应调整引资结构,吸引更多外资流入高科技行业以促进我国技术进步。     

Multivariate volatility forecasts for stock market indices

Volatility forecasts aim to measure future risk and they are key inputs for financial analysis. In this study, we forecast the realized variance as an observable measure of volatility for several major international stock market indices and accounted for the different predictive information present in jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components. We allowed for volatility spillovers in different stock markets by using a multivariate modeling approach. We used heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR)-type models to obtain the forecasts. Based an out-of-sample forecast study, we show that: (i) including option-implied variances in the HAR model substantially improves the forecast accuracy, (ii) lasso-based lag selection methods do not outperform the parsimonious day-week-month lag structure of the HAR model, and (iii) cross-market spillover effects embedded in the multivariate HAR model have long-term forecasting power.     

美联储前瞻性指引对新兴市场国家的溢出效应研究

基于前瞻性指引溢出效应的相关理论,选取17个代表性新兴市场国家为研究对象,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型实证分析美联储前瞻性指引对新兴市场国家的溢出效应.结果表明:美联储前瞻性指引在短期内对新兴市场国家金融市场具有一定的冲击,在长期内对新兴市场国家经济增长存在滞后的正向作用.新兴市场国家应采取应对策略,做好风险识别和预警,加强预期管理,增强货币政策协调和合作,有效防范和化解外溢影响.     

Terrorism and its impact on economic growth and technological innovation

Recent terrorist acts, in particular the 9-11 attacks in 2001, have created disruptions in the global economy. The short-term impact had been felt in the global tourism, airline industries, as well as the financial markets. While the global economy has recovered and is adjusting to the new global realities, the longer-term impact of heightened security risk across the world can be felt in the form of higher risk premiums in asset markets, as well as a shift of resources towards dealing with terrorism. Just as World War II had accelerated the development of nuclear energy as well as a major contributing factor in the genesis of Silicon Valley, the current war against terrorism will affect both the pace and trajectory of technology trends, as efforts are focused on developing technologies to combat terrorism. In this paper, we review the effects of the current war on terrorism in terms of its impact on the economy, the allocation of resources to R&D, and the trajectory of future R&D.     

加入WTO后科技型中小企业技术创新战略调整

随着中国加入WTO，科技型中小企业直接面临国外企业的竞争和挑战，国家对技术创新的支持政策也受到WTO相关规则的冲击。本文从加入WTO后我国科技型中小企业创新环境的变化，在分析我国科技中小企业的发展现状和技术创新优劣比较的基础,上根据WTO相关规则和现状，提出我国科技型中小企业入世后技术创新战略调整的应对之策略。     

The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process

This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15–20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool.     

基于DEMATEL方法的新兴技术产业化融资影响因素实证研究

新兴技术是提高国家产业竞争力的重要载体，但是资金问题一直是制约我国新兴技术产业化的瓶颈之一。构建新兴技术产业化融资影响因素理论模型，运用DEMATEL方法，实证检验不同因素对新兴技术产业化融资的影响程度。研究表明：融资扶持政策、资金渠道可选择性、共享信息有效性等因素对新兴技术产业化融资具有显著直接影响；资金供求匹配性、融资产品创新、信息共享方式等因素易受到其它微观因素影响，对产业化融资具有显著间接影响；担保费用、配套服务综合性及配套服务专业性等因素对产业化融资同时具有显著的直接与间接影响。据此，提出新兴技术产业化融资对策建议。     

A substitution orbit model of competitive innovations

Successful innovation and diffusion of technology can be attributed to the identification of the orbit of emerging new technologies that complement or substitute for existing technologies. This dynamism resembles the co-evolution process in an ecosystem. In an ecosystem, in order to maintain sustainable development, the complex interplay between competition and cooperation, typically observed in predator-prey systems, create a sophisticated balance. Given that an ecosystem can be used as a masterpiece system, this sophisticated balance can provide suggestive ideas for identifying an optimal orbit of competitive innovations with complement or substitution dynamism.Prompted by such a sophisticated balance in an ecosystem, this paper analyzes the optimal orbit of competitive innovations and, on the basis of an application of Lotka-Volterra equations, it reviews substitution orbits of Japan's monochrome to color TV system, fixed telephones to cellular telephones, cellular telephones to mobile Internet access service, and analog to digital TV broadcasting. On the basis of substitution orbits analyses, it attempts to extract suggestions supportive to identifying an optimal policy option in a complex orbit leading to expected orbit.Key findings include policy options that are effective in controlling parameters for Lotka-Volterra equations leading to expected orbit.