Informing the US Energy Policy Debate with Threshold 21

There has been growing concern about the recent emergence of the critical challenges of energy availability and the impacts of climate change. Both are inextricably linked and dealing with them is fundamental to the progress of America and humanity. There are, however, a number of different views expressed, reflecting different assumptions, special interests, and partisan objectives. Decision-makers and the public need easy-to-use and transparent tools to better visualize, analyze, and understand the broader and longer-term implications of the varying underlying assumptions, policies, and strategies, including both their positive and negative impacts — both direct and indirect — and how to manage them.Threshold 21 (T21) the simulation model presented in this paper aims to become such a tool. The Millennium Institute has developed it over the last 24 years.The T21-USA model results indicate that a continuation of current policies and trends will lead the US to become increasingly dependent on foreign energy resources and more vulnerable to price fluctuations. Furthermore, alternative scenarios simulating improved CAFE and Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) show that major reductions in the US' resource consumption and pollution generation could be possible while stimulating the economy over the medium and longer term. Nevertheless, the model shows that unintended consequences, such as the Jevons Paradox, have to be taken into consideration when defining national energy policies.     

Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction

Recent developments in nonlinear time series modelling are reviewed. Three main types of nonlinear model are discussed: Markov Switching, Threshold Autoregression and Smooth Transition Autoregression. Classical and Bayesian estimation techniques are described for each model. Parametric tests for nonlinearity are reviewed with examples from the three types of model. Finally forecasting and impulse response analysis is developed.     

我国企业对外投资绩效的动态特征——以国有大型企业为例的实证分析

本文通过对我国100家国有大型企业的实证分析,揭示了我国企业对外直接投资绩效的动态特征,主要包括:(1)对外投资活动对企业海外经营业绩的改善存在"门槛"效应,只有当企业境外资产存量达到某一临界点之后,企业才能从对外投资中获得正的绩效改善;(2)对外投资活动对企业的规模经济状态存在非线性影响,只有当企业的境外资产存量达到其资产总额的某一临界比率之后,对外投资才会比本土投资更具规模经济性。这表明,企业要获得国际化的成功,必须事先积累起海外扩张的核心能力并做好风险准备;国家对企业"走出去"的政策扶持,应当向处于国际化初级阶段的企业倾斜。     

FDI技术外溢的地区差异与吸收能力的门限特征——基于中国省际面板数据的门限回归分析

本文利用中国省际面板数据模型对FDI流入在不同地区所引发的技术外溢效应进行了检验。检验结果验证了FDI技术外溢效应在我国不同地区之间具有相当的差异性。在此基础上,本文采用"门限回归"方法构造非线性面板数据模型,进一步检验了影响FDI技术外溢效应的若干吸收能力因素以及FDI技术外溢影响的门限特征,并从经济发展水平、对外开放度、基础设施和人力资本状况以及地区经济结构等方面测定了引发积极技术外溢效应的门限水平。     

Measuring market integration in the presence of transaction costs–a threshold vector error correction approach

Applied econometric analyses of market integration based on price data alone have been criticised because they neglect the role of transaction costs. To meet this objection, threshold vector error correction models are used. Threshold models can account for the effects of transaction costs in price transmission without directly relying upon information about these costs, which are often unavailable. It is argued that threshold models that are based on two thresholds provide results that are economically more intuitive than those obtained from one-threshold models. However, to this point no adequate econometric test is available for threshold significance in a two-threshold model; such tests are only available for the one-threshold model. In this paper a restricted two-threshold model is developed in which the significance of the thresholds can be tested. This model is therefore amenable to economic interpretation and statistical inference. The model is used to estimate market integration in the European pig market.     

Price Transmission in the Swiss Wheat Market: Does Sophisticated Border Protection Make the Difference?

This article discusses horizontal wheat price transmission from international markets to the domestic Swiss market. The Swiss case is peculiar due to the presence of different border policies segmenting the domestic wheat market according to its use: food or feed. Vector Error Correction (VEC) models with structural breaks are estimated. They account for these policy instruments and their adaptation during periods of market exuberance, and acknowledge linkages between the two market segments. Estimation results suggest that the border policy regime isolates the domestic wheat market for feed use, while, in the food case, the domestic price still responds to international markets.     

Quality and endogenous tourism: An empirical approach

We propose a theoretical model and an empirical study that highlight the role of quality of tourism services and endogenous tourism in long-run economic growth. We study a theoretical growth model of international trade where tourism is the growth engine and quality of tourism services has a positive impact on long-term growth. We also provide an empirical analysis to test the relation between tourism, quality and economic growth in Spain over the period 1970–2010. Our results show that in the long run, tourist arrivals, quality of tourism accommodations, and foreign GDP have a positive effect on Spanish GDP. In the short term, changes in economic growth appear to lead to growth in tourist arrivals. Our findings support a two-way causal relationship between real GDP growth and tourism growth in Spain.     

A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change

This paper examines whether there is a long‐run stable equilibrium relationship between advertising and sales across the market segments of the UK car industry over the period 1971–2001. In order to achieve this goal, we allow for structural breaks in the series using cointegration techniques. The results show the existence of long‐run equilibrium relationships in all six market segments, although in four of them the relationship is not stable. In general, one structural change is detected in the late 1970s and another in the early 1990s, coinciding with two economic recessions. When we do not account for structural changes, the estimated long‐run elasticities of advertising on sales are seen to be substantially downwardly biased. Finally, a noticeable increase is observed in long‐run elasticities in most car market segments during the nineties with respect to previous decades.     

外商直接投资与经济增长关系研究

选取1983～2010年的数据,运用协整检验和误差修正模型研究外商直接投资与经济增长之间的关系,研究表明:(1)1983～2010年两者之间没有明确的长期均衡关系,原因在于我国引进外资政策和外商直接投资规模的阶段性特征明显。(2)根据两个时间序列的图形特征及邹氏参数稳定性断点检验将整个样本期以1994年为界分为两个子样本,两个子样本期内两者之间存在长期协整关系,短期内当外商直接投资规模偏离经济增长时,经济系统将分别以-0.2908和-0.0263的力度将其拉回均衡状态。(3)格兰杰因果检验表明,FDI促进了经济增长,但经济增长对吸引更多外资的作用不显著。提出了改善外商投资环境、加强外资的产业与区域导向和拓宽引进外资的渠道等政策建议。     

经济发展中的宏观金融效率问题——基于1981～2009年季度数据的考察

金融与经济发展具有长期稳定关系,但不同金融发展指标有不同的表现形式.以广义货币供应量所体现的货币化指标对经济的影响较明显,以信贷所体现的金融发展指标虽短期内可以促进经济发展,但在长期内却不能起到显著作用,利率指标对经济增长的影响不明显.虽然金融发展对经济发展有一定的影响,但总体上对经济的贡献很有限,中国金融发展与经济发展的关系更符合需求伴随假说.