Probability theory in fuzzy sample spaces

This paper tries to develop a neat and comprehensive probability theory for sample spaces where the events are fuzzy subsets of The investigations are focussed on the discussion how to equip those sample spaces with suitable -algebras and metrics. In the end we can point out a unified concept of random elements in the sample spaces under consideration which is linked with compatible metrics to express random errors. The result is supported by presenting a strong law of large numbers, a central limit theorem and a Glivenko-Cantelli theorem for these kinds of random elements, formulated simultaneously w.r.t. the selected metrics. As a by-product the line of reasoning, which is followed within the paper, enables us to generalize as well as to bring together already known results and concepts from literature.Acknowledgement. The author would like to thank the participants of the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory for the intensive discussion of the paper. Especially he is indebted to Professors Diamond and Höhle whose remarks have helped to get deeper insights into the subject. Additionally, the author is grateful to one anonymous referee for careful reading and valuable proposals which have led to an improvement of the first draft.This paper was presented at the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory, Linz, Austria, February 5–9, 2002.     

State wage-payment laws, the Pension Protection Act of 2006, and 401(k) saving behavior

I show empirically that state wage-payment laws, which forbid deductions from wages and salaries without the written permission of the employee, constituted a binding constraint on firms’ choices to adopt automatic enrollment in 401(k) plans prior to 2006.     

ECB repo rate setting during the financial crisis

I estimate a reaction function for the ECB using an ordered logit model for the period 1999-2009. Allowing for a smooth transition from one set of parameters to another, I detect a rapid change in the middle of 2008.     

Exporting, linkages and productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment

Abstract.  In this paper we analyse productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment using firm-level panel data for U.K. manufacturing industries from 1992 to 1999. We investigate spillovers through horizontal, backward, and forward linkages; distinguish spillovers from export-oriented vs domestic-market-oriented FDI; and allow for differing effects, depending on domestic firms' export activities. The results suggest that the mechanisms through which spillovers affect domestic firms are very complex and that there are substantial differences in spillover benefits for domestic exporters and non-exporters, and from different types of inward investment.     

R~2、异常收益与交易的信息成分

在CAPM回归中,低R^2的公司的价格是否更有效地反映了公司的特质信息在学术界始终存在争论。在R^2与公司特征变量的横截面检验基础之上,我们通过一个零成本投资组合考察了两个竞争性的理论。结果发现,（1）R^2与公司信息环境有显著关系,而且对于市场信息反应不够有效的公司,R^2会更低;（2）低酽股票组合短期的异常收益有更明显的时间序列可预测性和横截面风险,这说明在我国股市,低群代表了资产价格中更大的噪音成分;（3）股票的R^2与其价格中所包含的信息不对称或逆向选择成分呈负相关。     

气候变化的地球环境解读与不良后果分析

地球相对适宜的平均温度为15℃,这种动态平衡显然已被打破,全球加速变暖已是不争的事实.在影响地球环境变迁的天-地-人三大因素中,天和地的作用是客观的、决定性的、不可逆的;生物作用特别是人的作用大多是主观的、非常重要的、负有人为责任的.气候变暖的负面影响,不仅使极端天气气候事件频繁发生,使局部地区甚至整个生物圈结构和功能失衡,导致全球环境进一步恶化,而且在经济社会层面各方借机争夺未来在能源发展和经济竞争中的优势地位,势必引发全球公共资源的新一轮利用和分配问题而产生的冲突,威胁和与平安全.看来,限制CO2等温室气体排放、应对气候变化的国际主流的努力,在技术上是可行的,但在政治或经济上是否可行,需要展开进一步深入的国际磋商与务实合作实践.     

试探IGF2和H19基因与韦伯综合征的关系

笔者就韦伯综合征（Beckwith Wiedemannsyndrome,BWS）的特征,及IGF2与H19印迹基因各自生物学生性、印迹状况以及与BWS疾病的关系展开了详尽阐述。     

EFFECTS OF SECTOR AGGREGATION ON CO2 MULTIPLIERS IN MULTIREGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSES

The past few years have seen the emergence of several global multiregional input–output (MRIO) databases. Due to the cost and complexity of developing such extensive tables, industry sectors are generally represented at a rather aggregate level. Currently, one of the most important applications of input–output analysis is environmental assessments, for which highly aggregate sectors may not be sufficient to yield accurate results. We experiment with four of the most important global MRIO systems available, analyzing the sensitivity of a set of aggregate CO₂ multipliers to aggregations in the MRIO tables used to calculate them. Across databases, we find (a) significant sensitivity to background system detail and (b) that sub-sectors contained within the same aggregate MRIO sector may exhibit highly different carbon multipliers. We conclude that the additional information provided by the extra sector detail may warrant the additional costs of compilation, due to the heterogeneous nature of economic sectors in terms of their environmental characteristics.     

动态助词“过”的语法化历程

动态助词"过"一般分为"过1"和其中"过2","过1"表示动作的完结,"过2"表示曾然。其语法化历程为:一般动词"过"→趋向动词"过"→动态助词"过1"→动态助词"过2"。动态助词"过1"和"过2"的演变又可分别区分为两个阶段,即演变发生和演变扩散。就形成机制而言,"过1"的产生主要是受隐喻、类推以及重新分析的作用,趋向动词"过"的形成是"过1"产生的关键;而"过2"是"过1"吸收了助词"来"及其经常出现的句法环境的语法意义而产生的,可以说是"过1"在特殊语境下的产物。     

B2C电子商务中带退货的多配送站点车辆路径优化问题研究

研究了一个带退货的多配送站点车辆路径优化问题,建立了求解该问题的0-1整数规划模型,以实现各个配送站点在给他们客户配送货物的同时,沿途取回这些客户的退货,以节约运输成本的目的。设计了一种新的解的表示方法和邻域变换,以此为基础构造出直接求解多配送站点车辆路径优化问题的禁忌搜索算法,在该禁忌搜索算法中首先通过一个启发式算法求得了0-1整数规划模型的一个较好的初始可行解,从而提高了禁忌搜索算法的收敛速度及性能,最后通过例子对禁忌搜索算法及其性能进行了说明。