大数据系统实施对企业绩效影响的实证研究

以66家实施了大数据系统的上市企业为样本对象,通过t检验和Wilcoxon秩和检验,分析大数据系统实施对企业营运绩效和盈利绩效的影响。研究结果表明,在大数据系统实施当年,企业库存周转率和销售净利率不升反降,但在系统实施后1~2年均显著增长;总资产周转率在实施当年和实施后第1年为负增长,而在实施后第2年正向增长但不显著;总资产报酬率在大数据系统实施后2年没有提升。总资产周转率和总资产报酬率在系统实施后2年均未明显提高的原因可能在于,大数据系统实施的巨额成本对企业利润具有分摊效应。     

人民币汇率波动与通货膨胀率之间关系的实证分析

本文试图回答以下问题:人民币升值可以替代通货膨胀吗?如果可以,定量的替代关系如何?在综合使用了多种分析方法后,我们发现人民币升值在某种程度上确实可以抑制国内价格水平的上涨,但其效果决定了升值不能成为抑制通胀的主要工具。另外,通过模型我们还揭示出劳动生产率的提高对于国内物价的上涨具有决定性意义。     

有噪复杂度寻踪的新算法

复杂度寻踪是投影寻踪向时间序列数据,即具有时间结构信号的扩展.该方法是和具有时间依赖特性的源信号的盲分离和独立成分分析紧密联系的.在源信号是具有时间依赖特性和存在高斯噪声的情况下,现有的有噪复杂度寻踪算法没有给出自回归系数的估计方法,影响了算法的实际应用,提出了有噪复杂度寻踪的新算法,该算法给出了自回归系数的估计方法.对自然图像和人工信号的仿真表明了提出算法的有效性,和现有的肓源分离算法相比较,提出算法具有好的信号分离性能.     

Agustín Maravall: An interview with the International Journal of Forecasting

Agustín Maravall Herrero (Madrid, 1944) is one of the world’s authorities in seasonal adjustment and automatic forecasting of economic time series. He studied Agricultural Engineering and completed a doctorate at the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. With a Ford-Fulbright fellowship he moved to the University of Wisconsin-Madison to obtain a Ph.D. in Economics in 1975. He worked at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (the Fed) in Washington D.C. and in 1979 returned to Madrid as a Senior Economist in the Research Department of the Banco de España (BE). In the period 1989-96, he was a full professor in the Department of Economics of the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence. He returned to the BE as Chief Economist and Head of the Time Series Analysis Unit and retired in December 2014.Maravall has done outstanding research in time series and has been a pioneer in developing methodology and writing computer programs for automatic estimation and model selection, seasonal adjustment, and forecasting of time series. His programs “Time Series Regression with ARIMA noise, Missing observations and Outliers” (TRAMO) and “Signal Extraction in ARIMA Time Series” (SEATS), jointly developed with Victor Gómez, have had a large influence in applied forecasting, including adjusting series for seasonality and possibly other undesirable effects, such as outliers, or missing observations, and have been used in many economic institutions around the world. He has been very active in promoting the automatic analysis of time series, teaching short courses in many countries. Also, he has stimulated research in this field being on the editorial board of the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics and the Journal of Econometrics. He has been a Special Advisor to the European Central Bank (ECB) and Eurostat in time series analysis. His research contributions have been recognized as Fellow of the Journal of Econometrics, 1995; Fellow of the American Statistical Association, 2000; Julius Shiskin Award for Economic Statistics, 2004, and the highest prizes for Economic Research in Spain: The Rey Jaime I Prize in Economics, 2005 and the Rey Juan Carlos Prize in Economics, 2014.     

层控矿床概念的建立及其哲学意义

本文回顾层控矿床概念的建立过程,引用演化的时间观对层控矿床的形成、发展、变化规律进行了哲学分析,认为演化的观点不仅具认识论上而且具方法论上的意义。     

广东经济增长协整分析

本文通过对广东省1978～2007年的GDP、全社会固定资产投资和税收三个时间序列进行数量分析,发现它们之间存在协整关系,基于这个协整关系建立误差修正模型(ECM),在对模型进行分析后,对广东的经济发展提出一些建议。     

简论马克思主义中国化时代化大众化的内在联系

马克思主义是我国的指导思想,是一个不断发展、与时俱进的过程。马克思主义中国化时代化大众化是辩证统一的关系。马克思主义中国化是时代化和大众化的核心,马克思主义时代化是马克思主义发展的动力,而马克思主义大众化在三者中起到主体作用,是马克思主义中国化和时代化的落脚点。     

地方政府财政政策与企业股权融资:理论与实证

论文通过建立连续时间动态讨价还价模型对地方政府与企业所有者之间的博弈关系进行了理论研究．并对双方策略选择关系进行了实证检验。理论研究的结果表明,如果博弈双方的时间偏好相同,剩余控制权（或者称之为相对讨价还价优势）的配置与博弈双方的福利水平无关：而时间偏好不相同时,剩余控制权的配置将影响双方的福利水平,这个研究结论与是否存在交易成本不必相关。通过实证研究,论文的研究结果表明：（1）地方政府追求预算外盈余的行为会导致其增加财政支出最终导致财政赤字持续增加,但这些财政赤字并没有为企业股权融资提供有效的支持;（2）地方政府的财政更愿意与企业在预算外的领域合作,而企业则更愿意与地方政府在预算内合作：（3）非国有企业较国有企业更愿意和地方政府在预算外合作,而地方政府也更愿意和非国有企业在预算外的领域合作。这些实证结果说明地方政府在时间偏好不一致的情况下拥有剩余控制权。