M-competition — A closer look at NAIVE2 and median APE : A note

Two observations regarding the M-Competition are presented. First, the seasonal indices that were used in the NAIVE2 method were not calculated using the exact procedures that were defined in the M-Competition paper. Second the median absolute percentage error comparative measure was not computed as one might expect it to have been and was not documented as such. The resolution of these matters might enhance the usefulness of the M-Competition study.     

The serial correlation structure for a random process with steps

Summary We derive the detailed correlation structure for the simple “staircase model”: a process where white noise is superimposed on a deterministic step function that has equal rises and equal treads. It turns out that this structure is an immediate generalisation of that for a linear trend (which, for discrete data, can be alternatively considered as a step function with equal rises and unit treads). We compare the structure obtained with that for a random walk, and those for a subset of other ARIMA(p, 1,q) models, and those of general ARIMA(p, d, q) processes withd>1.     

Mergers and Excess Deposits: Some Evidence for the UK

In this paper we consider an argument, often used in the City and the press, that mergers take place more because of the availability of finance than for strong economic reasons. In particular, we focus on the availability of finance part of this argument and suggest that the financial sector and firms themselves use excess funds to support merger activity. Using data for the UK, we show that there is evidence for such an effect for non-bank financial institutions but results for firms are not significant. Possible interpretations of this result are also discussed.     

网络时代的客户关系管理

本文通过客户关系管理（CRM）在互联网领域的流行，分析实施客户关系管理的运作流程和重点，指出应从顾客接触点开始，建立顾客数据库，从而实施良好的客户关系管理。     

资本结构与市场择机:中国上市公司横截面数据的证明

企业的资本结构选择与企业市场价值相关,市场择机理论系统地阐述了二者之间的关系。与以往的研究不同,本文专门针对中国上市公司的横截面数据对市场择机理论的有效性进行了检验。实证研究结果表明,市值-账面比近期的水平横截面差异对资本结构的影响显著,但是市值-账面比的历史变化累计结果对资本结构几乎没有解释力。这说明中国上市公司的融资行为具有短期性倾向。     

Decomposition of Japanese Yen Interest Rate Data Through Local Regression

Seven different Japanese Yen interest rates recorded on a daily basisfor the period from 1986 to 1992 are simultaneously analyzed. Byintroducing a new concept of short term trend, we decomposeeach interest rate series into three components, long termtrend, short term trend and irregular. It is obtained by atwo step lowess smoothing technique. After that, amultivariate autoregressive model (MAR) is fitted to the vectorvalued time series obtained by combining those seven irregularcomponents. The decomposition and MAR model fitting were quitesatisfactory. It enables us to understand well various aspects ofinterest rate series from the trends, the MAR (2) coefficientsand its residuals. The result is compared with the decompositionthrough sabl and the advantages of our procedure will bedemonstrated in relations to other parametric model fitting likeARCH or GARCH. Based on the decomposition we can have betterdaily prediction and more stable long term forecasting.     

The time-harried shopper: Exploring the differences between maximizers and satisficers

Schwartz and his colleagues have proposed individual differences in consumer decision goals. Maximizers are those who always strive to make the best possible decision, whereas satisficers are those who are usually willing to settle for a “good enough” option. In this study, we explore the influence of the maximizing trait in situations where consumers have to make quick purchase decisions. The context for our empirical study is online gift purchases made under a time constraint. The results support our predictions that maximizers (vs. satisficers) engage in more prepurchase browsing behavior and also perceive more decision time pressure. Furthermore, these effects are moderated by the size of the available choice assortment. The results also show that maximizers are more likely to change their initial time-constrained choices if given the opportunity to do so. We discuss the implications of the research for the study of individual differences in consumer behavior and also for customizing retail sales and Internet marketing tactics based on buyer segmentation.     

能源消费与经济增长关联特征的分解分析

经济增长促进能源的开发和利用,能源作为经济发展的动力因素同时也制约着经济的增长,正确认识能源与经济增长的关系,有利于中国能源发展战略政策的制定,确保中国经济健康、稳定、持续地发展。选取1980~2005年能源消费与经济增长数据,应用滤波和状态空间模型对能源消费与经济增长进行时间序列分解,从趋势成分分析两变量的长期均衡关系,从周期成分分析波动特征与协同关系,全面、细致地考察能源消费与经济增长的关联特征。     

Time bandits: How they are created, why they are tolerated, and what can be done about them

Organizations today own little slack, and they must very carefully manage their resources. In this article, we describe an omnipresent, yet often ignored resource utilization problem whereby some workers abandon certain responsibilities and use the freed-up time to pursue personal interests such as hobbies and side businesses. In essence, these “time bandits” work part-time in exchange for full-time pay. While bandits are a minority among workers, their negative effects are significant and widespread. Specifically, banditry undermines an organization's mission, morale, and productivity, as well as putting stakeholder support at risk. In an effort to address this problem, we offer insights in three areas. First, we identify key causes of banditry, including supervisors not enforcing performance standards, poorly constructed reward systems, and the failure to recognize individual differences when designing jobs. Second, we describe reasons why banditry is tolerated within organizations, such as supervisors' desire to avoid conflict and their fear of being labeled as hypocrites. Most importantly, we offer a set of techniques that can prevent and reverse banditry. These include carefully defining expectations, intervening quickly when the symptoms of banditry appear, reducing bandits' compensation over time, and designing jobs that capitalize on individuals' varied skills and motivation.     

The geographic accessibility of child care subsidies and evidence on the impact of subsidy receipt on childhood obesity

This paper examines the impact of the spatial accessibility of public human services agencies on the likelihood of receiving a child care subsidy among disadvantaged mothers with young children. In particular, we collect data on the location of virtually every human services agency in the US and use this information to calculate the approximate distance that families must travel from home in order to reach the nearest office that administers the subsidy application process. Using data from the Kindergarten cohort of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS-K), our results indicate that an increase in the distance to a public human services agency reduces the likelihood that a family receives a child care subsidy. Specifically, we estimate an elasticity of subsidy receipt with respect to distance of −0.13. The final section of the paper provides an empirical application in which we use variation in families’ travel distance to identify the causal effect of child care subsidies on children’s weight outcomes. Our instrumental variables estimates suggest that subsidized child care leads to sizeable increases in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among low-income children.