The Effect of Accountability and Time Budgets on Auditors' Testing Strategies*

This study investigates the joint effects of accountability and time budgets on auditors' testing strategies. The task studied, substantive analytical procedures, requires auditors to identify and test hypotheses when investigating the cause of unexpected fluctuations. Thus, auditors must determine the number of tests to conduct (i.e., extent), the number of potential hypotheses to directly test (i.e., breadth), the number of tests for each hypothesis (i.e., depth) and the number of potential error or non‐error hypotheses to test (i.e., focus). Testing strategies, which we define as choices made with respect to extent, focus, depth, and breadth of testing, have significant practical and theoretical implications. For example, reducing the breadth of testing may result in failure to test the correct hypothesis, potentially impairing audit effectiveness. In this study, auditors inherited five potential causes of an unexpected increase in the gross margin of a client. As in practice, their task was to conduct tests to investigate and identify the actual cause of the fluctuation. Auditors were randomly assigned to one of four conditions created by fully crossing accountability and time budgets. The results indicate that accountability leads to an increase in the extent and breadth of testing but does not affect the depth of testing. Further, accountability leads to an increase in the testing of errors but results in a decrease in the testing of non‐errors. The focus on breadth and error testing is consistent with the notion that accountability, to a superior with unspecified preferences, promotes more cautious behavior. The results also show that a time budget decreases the extent and depth of testing but does not affect the breadth of testing. There was no evidence that the two factors interactively affected testing strategies or performance. Finally, increased breadth of testing was the mechanism that led to better performance as measured by the identification of the actual cause of the unexpected fluctuation.     

宏观审慎与货币政策双支柱框架研究——基于系统性风险视角

本轮国际金融危机之后,建立“宏观审慎政策专门盯住金融稳定目标,货币政策主要关注经济稳定目标”的双支柱成为国际社会的普遍共识。本文基于系统性风险视角,深入剖析系统性风险的累积和实现机制,从时间和空间两个维度梳理宏观审慎政策实现金融稳定的有效性,以及货币政策对系统性风险造成的潜在溢出性。目前从系统性风险的时间维度探讨双支柱政策的研究已较为丰富,可以总结为宏观审慎政策的“逆周期调节”机制和货币政策的“资本缺口”机制。从系统性风险的空间维度探讨双支柱政策的研究,也即对双支柱政策如何作用和改变金融机构内部关联网络的研究正成为研究热点。本文从政策工具和影响机制上对空间维度双支柱政策进行了系统梳理。基于以上分析,本文对双支柱政策的制定提出如下建议:时间维度宏观审慎政策要关注并消除货币政策对时间维度系统性风险的溢出性,同时要加强空间维度宏观审慎政策工具的创新力度。     

Testing neoclassical convergence in regional incomes and earnings

The time-series properties of per capita income and per capita earnings in the regions of the United States are tested for consistency with the neoclassical growth model's prediction of convergence. We find evidence for per capita income convergence for U.S. regions during the 1929–1990 period after allowing for a trend break in 1946. These findings support the neoclassical model's prediction of convergence. The evidence for per capita earnings convergence is, however, less conclusive. Shocks to per capita earnings are found to be more persistent than shocks to per capita income. This implies that the regional distribution of transfer payments tends to smooth the effects of deviation on relative regional per capita earnings and reinforce trends in per capita income convergence.     

M-competition — A closer look at NAIVE2 and median APE : A note

Two observations regarding the M-Competition are presented. First, the seasonal indices that were used in the NAIVE2 method were not calculated using the exact procedures that were defined in the M-Competition paper. Second the median absolute percentage error comparative measure was not computed as one might expect it to have been and was not documented as such. The resolution of these matters might enhance the usefulness of the M-Competition study.     

Time-series decomposition using the sinusoidal model

This paper empirically supports the hypothesis that a sinusoidal model can be used successfully to decompose time-series data into its components. Since the length of the seasonal cycle is known, this study documents how one makes use of this known length to infer characteristics of the more general non-seasonal cycle. By examining the ratios of the lengths of the longer to the shorter sine waves in the resulting fit of a sinusoidal model, one is able to determine which sine waves are estimating the same cycle and what the average length of that cycle is. A non-linear trend is estimated by adding a sine wave to the linear trend.     

京瓷的大家族主义经营与管理会计——稻盛经营管理方式和单位时间核算制度

京瓷株式会社是日本一家基于独自经营哲学——稻盛经营管理方式而快速发展起来的大型公司。稻盛经营管理方式是由阿米巴组织、以单位时间核算为基础的管理会计制度而构成。面对多变的经营环境,阿米巴组织伸缩自如,变化自主,它的形成基础并不是事业部制组织,而是以职能制组织为基础的生产线核算组织。单位时间核算是阿米巴组织中核心的会计概念。单位时间核算的具体计算方法是,首先按部门类别进行核算,即每一个阿米巴组织的销售额与费用相配比,接着将分部门核算的结果与总的劳动时间相除,获得单位时间阿米巴组织的核算结果。需要明确的是:(1)单位时间核算得出的收益减去计时工资之差就是单位时间净利润;(2)生产部门的阿米巴组织与经营部门的阿米巴组织本着规避机会损失的内在要求,会形成一个共同的价值链,进而推进阿米巴组织的管理效率,实现公司整体利益的最大化。基于稻盛经营管理方式下的管理会计模式是京瓷在大家族主义经营哲学影响下所造就的杰出成果。     

Expectation-based scan statistics for monitoring spatial time series data

We consider the simultaneous monitoring of a large number of spatially localized time series in order to detect emerging spatial patterns. For example, in disease surveillance, we detect emerging outbreaks by monitoring electronically available public health data, e.g. aggregate daily counts of Emergency Department visits. We propose a two-step approach based on the expectation-based scan statistic: we first compute the expected count for each recent day for each spatial location, then find spatial regions (groups of nearby locations) where the recent counts are significantly higher than expected. By aggregating information across multiple time series rather than monitoring each series separately, we can improve the timeliness, accuracy, and spatial resolution of detection. We evaluate several variants of the expectation-based scan statistic on the disease surveillance task (using synthetic outbreaks injected into real-world hospital Emergency Department data), and draw conclusions about which models and methods are most appropriate for which surveillance tasks.     

居住与就业空间关系的决定机理和影响因素——对北京市通勤时间和通勤流量的实证研究

在中国城市增长和空间重构的过程中,"居住-就业"空间关系逐渐由"职住合一"向"职住分离"演变.基于城市空间结构及区住选择的经典理论和最近的理论创新,结合中国城市的制度环境特点,建立了对通勤时间影响因素进行分析的理论框架,并利用北京市的两套就业者微观样本实证研究了各种制度因素和市场因素(分为就业机会、公共服务设施和住房机会三大类)对通勤时间和通勤流量的影响机理.研究发现:相关理论能够较好地解释北京市的"居住-就业"空间关系.工作机会、住房机会和城市公共服务设施的空间布局是影响"居住-就业"空间关系和通勤时间的三个重要因素.同时中国城市中特有的历史路径依赖性和制度转型特点.增加了"居住一就业"空闻关系的复杂性.论文认为,应致力于减少对劳动力自由选址的制度性约束,在促进产业用地充分集聚的同时,调整公共服务设施的空间布局,改变其过度集中于城市中心的现状,同时在交通便捷的区位提供符合当地劳动力住房需求的住房供给.     

中国货币政策利率传导机制有效性的实证研究

本文基于新颖的和交叉性统计数据,通过协整检验与Granger因果关系检验等方法,对中国货币政策的利率传导机制进行实证研究.实证分析结果表明:(1)我国货币政策的利率传导机制是低效的.(2)货币政策在整体上却有效.这从侧面可以证明:相比较于其他几个货币传导机制,我国的利率传导机制的阻塞效用更强,即其对货币政策总体绩效的贡献度相对最小.(3)利率传导机制还存在时滞效应.本文认为,解决目前我国利率传导机制低效性的主要方法还是要通过利率市场化的渐进推进.