国内外技术获取与高技术产业创新绩效差异——基于时滞视角的比较分析

开放式创新背景下,外部技术获取方式中的国内技术购买和国外技术引进对创新绩效的影响并不相同。运用2012-2018年高技术产业省际面板数据进行实证分析,检验在不同滞后期,技术购买、技术引进对新产品销售收入和专利的差异化影响。实证结果表明：技术购买、技术引进对高技术产业创新绩效影响的显著差异在于影响时滞不同;技术购买能在短期提升新产品销售收入和发明专利申请量;技术引进在短期只能提升新产品销售收入,对发明专利申请量的提升及对新产品销售收入的增加需要更长的时滞。内部研发支出在技术购买、技术引进与高技术产业创新绩效间发挥的调节作用不尽相同。因此,高技术产业企业应充分考虑技术购买、技术引进对创新绩效影响的时滞差异,根据不同的创新发展目标选择不同来源的外部技术,保证必要的内部研发支出并提高国外技术吸收能力。     

可持续发展公理破缺与修正的理论探讨

论文简要概述了可持续发展理论产生的历史背景和国际上几种具有代表性的可持续发展定义,从哲学意义上指出可持续发展公理由于侧重于“时间序列谱的研究而忽视了”空间局域谱”的研究,导致理论上出现“破缺”,并对产生“破缺”的原因作了探讨,论文应用“各态历经假说”理论对可持续发展“时空耦合”的基本特征和基本规律进行了论述。并从理论上指出唯有“时间序列谱”与“空间局域谱”二者达到“共振耦合”,博大精深的可持续发展理论和真谛才能获得完美的表达。     

Forecasting World Trade: Direct Versus “Bottom-Up” Approaches

In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to “bottom-up” approaches, where world trade results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows.

美国金融危机成因探析

金融是国民经济的命脉,金融体系的稳定和效率,对国家的繁荣昌盛至关重要。从华尔街肇始的美国金融危机向欧洲以及全球蔓延,使世界经济陷于衰退中,发展中的中国资本市场应该吸取教训,走稳健发展、可持续发展之路。     

近期股价波动的原因及趋势分析

本文通过对最近几年股票市场现状的分析,并从经济、心理、制度、政治等因素,深层次探讨股票市场价格暴涨暴跌的原因,发现其是股票市场的一般规律和时间特征耦合在一起的结果,演绎的过程在股票市场自身性和外围众因素波动性的博弈中具有短期不可测性和长期趋势性.最后分析如何从制度上理顺股票市场,政策上应对股票市场价格剧烈波动,并对股票市场做简单长期趋势分析.     

Currency of Search: How Spending Time on Search is Not the Same as Spending Money

Search theories suggest that a decline in search costs increases search behavior. This relationship has been well supported by prior experimental research but not by studies conducted in retail settings. Our review of the literature suggests that this discrepancy might be driven by the fact that prior experiments typically involve money-based search whereas actual search in retail settings is usually time-based. We argue that the currency of search plays a moderating role. We find that when participants spend money on search, a decrease in search costs has a significant effect on search decisions but, when they spend time on search, a decrease in search costs either has a relatively weak effect (Experiment 1) or no effect at all (Experiment 2). Furthermore, this insensitivity in time also emerges for search payoffs (Experiment 3). We also offer evidence for the processes underlying these effects. Our results provide a new lens to examine inconsistencies in the search literature, and present a view of search that is more applicable to the retail context.     

As time goes by: Examining the paradox of stability and change in business networks

Stability and change may seem contradictory features but in business networks, they coexist [Hakansson H, Snehota, I. Developing Relationships in Business Networks. London, Routledge; 1995]. This article explores the paradox of the coexistence of stability and change in an Australian context. Previous research illustrated that stability over time can exist in specific business relationships [Sutton-Brady C, Donnan, M. Nexus nonsense or is it? Conference Proceedings, 19th Annual IMP Conference, Lugano, Switzerland September 2003; 2003]. This research study further investigates time as a proxy variable of stability [Halinen A, Tornroos, J-A. The meaning of time in the study of industrial buyer–seller relationships. In: Moller K, Wilson DT, editors. Business Marketing: An Interaction Approach. Norwell, Mass: Kluwer Academic Publishers; 1995.] and attempts to uncover other variables, which may influence the stability of the relationship. Given the exploratory nature of the research a case study approach was utilized to gain an in-depth understanding of the variables, which may contribute to the stability. This article further advances the concept of time as a proxy variable for stability while investigating what other variables may be crucial in understanding this concept. From analysis of the case studies, the findings show that other variables do play a role in determining the stability and change in the relationships and networks, these included location, product/service quality, technology, cooperativeness, adaptations and cost. The major contribution of this article is the reopening of discussions on time as a proxy variable for stability and attempts to broaden this to include other variables.     

The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting

This paper presents a new univariate forecasting method. The method is based on the concept of modifying the local curvature of the time-series through a coefficient ‘Theta’ (the Greek letter θ), that is applied directly to the second differences of the data. The resulting series that are created maintain the mean and the slope of the original data but not their curvatures. These new time series are named Theta-lines. Their primary qualitative characteristic is the improvement of the approximation of the long-term behavior of the data or the augmentation of the short-term features, depending on the value of the Theta coefficient. The proposed method decomposes the original time series into two or more different Theta-lines. These are extrapolated separately and the subsequent forecasts are combined. The simple combination of two Theta-lines, the Theta=0 (straight line) and Theta=2 (double local curves) was adopted in order to produce forecasts for the 3003 series of the M3 competition. The method performed well, particularly for monthly series and for microeconomic data.     

广东经济增长协整分析

本文通过对广东省1978～2007年的GDP、全社会固定资产投资和税收三个时间序列进行数量分析,发现它们之间存在协整关系,基于这个协整关系建立误差修正模型(ECM),在对模型进行分析后,对广东的经济发展提出一些建议。     

“一带一路”战略下中国铁路走出去的时间价值、空间意义与约束条件

中国铁路特别是中国高速铁路的横空出世,已经或正在改变人们的时空观念。铁路走出去的时间价值和空间意义是“一带一路”战略的重要推动力。所谓铁路走出去的时间价值,即由于快捷及交易成本的降低,铁路会成为交通出行和物流运输的优先选择,为中国和沿线国家带来福祉。所谓铁路走出去的空间意义是指铁路尤其是高铁的互联互通,必将引起“一带一路”沿线空间经济格局的深刻变化,改变国内和国际经济不平衡状态,带动中国西部和沿线发展中国家的经济发展。应积极面对诸如沿线国家需求不同、沿线发展中国家资金短缺、沿线国家铁路标准不统一等约束条件,提升铁路运输的时间价值和空间意义,推进中国铁路走出去。