层控矿床概念的建立及其哲学意义

本文回顾层控矿床概念的建立过程,引用演化的时间观对层控矿床的形成、发展、变化规律进行了哲学分析,认为演化的观点不仅具认识论上而且具方法论上的意义。     

中国货币政策利率传导机制有效性的实证研究

本文基于新颖的和交叉性统计数据,通过协整检验与Granger因果关系检验等方法,对中国货币政策的利率传导机制进行实证研究.实证分析结果表明:(1)我国货币政策的利率传导机制是低效的.(2)货币政策在整体上却有效.这从侧面可以证明:相比较于其他几个货币传导机制,我国的利率传导机制的阻塞效用更强,即其对货币政策总体绩效的贡献度相对最小.(3)利率传导机制还存在时滞效应.本文认为,解决目前我国利率传导机制低效性的主要方法还是要通过利率市场化的渐进推进.     

有输入的多层逆阶模型用于区域地下水位预报

文中针对地下水这个时变动态系统，建立了地下水位序列的多层递阶预报模型，通过对随机参数的预报，并考虑降雨和灌溉这一动态输入，使预报精度有较大提高．     

Determinants of the Allocation of Volunteer Time: Church-Related versus Other Non-market Activities

This paper analyzes the relative time allocation decisions of individuals who volunteer time to a religious institution. The most important factor influencing the amount of time spent in church ministry relative to other non-market activities is educational attainment. In general, religious volunteers who are college-educated are significantly more likely to spend relatively more time working in church ministry than devoting time to family responsibilities, engaging in spiritual practices, or volunteering time to civic/community organizations. The presence of school-aged children tends to diminish the relative amount of time spent volunteering in church ministry. The findings of this study suggest church ministry perceived as being child-friendly or strengthening one’s spirituality is more likely to attract relatively greater time commitments from its volunteers.

Growth outside the stable path: Lessons from the European reconstruction

This paper exploits a natural experiment, the large destruction of capital in continental Europe during World War II, to characterize the transitional dynamics of an economy that begins with a capital stock below its steady state level. We use these regularities as a benchmark to discriminate among competing growth specifications. A model that combines non-separabilities in preferences with a technology that restricts the degree of substitutability between inputs outperforms the widely used AK and Cobb–Douglas specifications with time-separable preferences. Our results suggest that policy evaluations based in growth models that overlook non-separabilities in preferences or impose strong restrictions on the technological structure might be grossly misleading.     

Are residual economic relationships normally distributed? Testing an assumption of neoclassical economics

In both theoretical and applied contexts, neoclassical economics typically assumes that residual economic relationships are mean-zero, finite-variance, normally distributed random variables. However, many have challenged this view, from various perspectives. The Austrian economists, specifically in the tradition of Mises and Rothbard, reject outright the effort to mathematically model human choices. This Austrian view is often derided as unscientific. However, some of the most mathematically sophisticated work in financial economics also rejects the orthodox bell curve. In this paper, we test Benoit Mandelbrot’s “stable Paretian” hypothesis on ten major macroeconomic data sets and reject the normal distribution in nine of them. We further argue that the stable Paretian hypothesis (and, more generally, the field of “chaos theory”) is far more compatible with the Austrian position than one might initially suspect.

Nominal debt as a burden on monetary policy

We characterize the optimal sequential choice of monetary policy in economies with either nominal or indexed debt. In a model where nominal debt is the only source of time inconsistency, the Markov-perfect equilibrium policy implies the progressive depletion of the outstanding stock of debt, until the time inconsistency disappears. There is a resulting welfare loss if debt is nominal rather than indexed. We also analyze the case where monetary policy is time inconsistent even when debt is indexed. In this case, with nominal debt, the sequential optimal policy converges to a time-consistent steady state with positive—or negative—debt, depending on the value of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Welfare can be higher if debt is nominal rather than indexed and the level of debt is not too high.     

"经济人"假设的理论缘起

"经济人"是西方经济学的核心概念和理论起点."经济人"假设的缘起是一个历史的过程,文艺复兴时的启蒙思想家以及霍布斯、坎布兰、孟德维尔、休谟等人的思想为"经济人"假设的产生提供了充足的理论支撑,并由亚当·斯密进行了系统的论证.     

Time preferences,cognitive abilities and intrinsic motivation to exert effort

The experimental literature has found a positive relationship between patience and performance in cognitive tests that are not incentivized by money. It has also been shown that unincentivized cognitive tests capture not only cognitive ability (CA), but also intrinsic motivation related to the test takers’ personality traits. In order to determine whether the relationship between patience and test scores is driven by intrinsic motivation or CA, we run an experiment in which subjects take either incentivized or unincentivized cognitive tests. We find that while incentivized test scores positively correlate with patience, the unincentivized scores are not related to the time preferences of our subjects. The observed correlation between patience and cognitive test scores therefore seems to be driven by CA rather than by intrinsic motivation related to personality traits.     

国家标准化建设对产品质量发展的影响——基于1990—2010年时间序列数据的实证研究

本文利用1990-2010年的时间序列数据,用动态计量分析方法,对国家标准化建设与产品质量发展之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:国家标准化建设是产品质量发展的重要影响因素,二者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;国家标准数量与产品质量发展之间是单向因果关系,即国家标准数量会影响产品质量的提升,但产品质量提升并不是国家标准化建设的原因;国家标准化建设对产品质量的影响中,短期作用要大于长期作用。