Non-parametric determination of real-time lag structure between two time series: the ‘optimal thermal causal path’ method

We introduce a novel non-parametric methodology to test for the dynamical time evolution of the lag–lead structure between two arbitrary time series. The method consists of constructing a distance matrix based on the matching of all sample data pairs between the two time series. Then, the lag–lead structure is searched for as the optimal path in the distance matrix landscape that minimizes the total mismatch between the two time series, and that obeys a one-to-one causal matching condition. To make the solution robust to the presence of a large amount of noise that may lead to spurious structures in the distance matrix landscape, we generalize this optimal search by introducing a fuzzy search by sampling over all possible paths, each path being weighted according to a multinomial logit or equivalently Boltzmann factor proportional to the exponential of the global mismatch of this path. We present the efficient transfer matrix method that solves the problem and test it on simple synthetic examples to demonstrate its properties and usefulness compared with the standard running-time cross-correlation method. We then apply our ‘optimal thermal causal path’ method to the question of the lag-dependence between the US stock market and the treasury bond yields and confirm our earlier results on an arrow of the stock markets preceding the Federal Reserve Funds’ adjustments, as well as the yield rates at short maturities in the period 2000–2003. Our application of this technique to inflation, inflation change, GDP growth rate and unemployment rate unearths non-trivial lag relationships: the GDP changes lead inflation especially since the 1980s, inflation changes leads GDP only in the 1980 decade, and inflation leads unemployment rates since the 1970s. In addition, our approach seems to detect multiple competing lag structures in which one can have inflation leading GDP with a certain lag time and GDP feeding back/leading inflation with another lag time.     

On time-heterogeneous credibility estimation

Abstract

Let χ_i be the total claim amount of an insurance policy in calendar year i. We assume that the χ_i's are conditionally independent given an unknown random parameter ø, and that for all i. In the present paper it is under these assumptions shown how to calculate the credibility estimator of m(ø) by recursive updating. We also give estimators for the unknown parameters α_i, β_i, and ?_i based on portfolio data. Finally we mention some related models.     

上市公司委托代理成本内生时变特征的实证判别与理论猜想

通过选取中国A股市场上市公司2003年1月至2015年6月的季度和半年度数据,基于个体固定效应面板数据模型,实证检验委托代理成本随着公司上市时间的变化是否存在一般性变化规律。实证结果表明,委托代理成本随着公司上市时间的变化呈现出显著的“M”形时变特征,且不同的数据样本频率以及是否加入相应的控制变量对上述结果并没有产生影响,因此中国上市公司委托代理成本存在具有内生性特征的时变规律。理论猜想认为：硬性上市条件约束、上市亢奋和针对窃取利益与维护职位的权衡会使企业的委托代理成本在上市后产生持续波动的内生性时变特征。     

Growth outside the stable path: Lessons from the European reconstruction

This paper exploits a natural experiment, the large destruction of capital in continental Europe during World War II, to characterize the transitional dynamics of an economy that begins with a capital stock below its steady state level. We use these regularities as a benchmark to discriminate among competing growth specifications. A model that combines non-separabilities in preferences with a technology that restricts the degree of substitutability between inputs outperforms the widely used AK and Cobb–Douglas specifications with time-separable preferences. Our results suggest that policy evaluations based in growth models that overlook non-separabilities in preferences or impose strong restrictions on the technological structure might be grossly misleading.     

Are residual economic relationships normally distributed? Testing an assumption of neoclassical economics

In both theoretical and applied contexts, neoclassical economics typically assumes that residual economic relationships are mean-zero, finite-variance, normally distributed random variables. However, many have challenged this view, from various perspectives. The Austrian economists, specifically in the tradition of Mises and Rothbard, reject outright the effort to mathematically model human choices. This Austrian view is often derided as unscientific. However, some of the most mathematically sophisticated work in financial economics also rejects the orthodox bell curve. In this paper, we test Benoit Mandelbrot’s “stable Paretian” hypothesis on ten major macroeconomic data sets and reject the normal distribution in nine of them. We further argue that the stable Paretian hypothesis (and, more generally, the field of “chaos theory”) is far more compatible with the Austrian position than one might initially suspect.

Nominal debt as a burden on monetary policy

We characterize the optimal sequential choice of monetary policy in economies with either nominal or indexed debt. In a model where nominal debt is the only source of time inconsistency, the Markov-perfect equilibrium policy implies the progressive depletion of the outstanding stock of debt, until the time inconsistency disappears. There is a resulting welfare loss if debt is nominal rather than indexed. We also analyze the case where monetary policy is time inconsistent even when debt is indexed. In this case, with nominal debt, the sequential optimal policy converges to a time-consistent steady state with positive—or negative—debt, depending on the value of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Welfare can be higher if debt is nominal rather than indexed and the level of debt is not too high.     

Determinants of the Allocation of Volunteer Time: Church-Related versus Other Non-market Activities

This paper analyzes the relative time allocation decisions of individuals who volunteer time to a religious institution. The most important factor influencing the amount of time spent in church ministry relative to other non-market activities is educational attainment. In general, religious volunteers who are college-educated are significantly more likely to spend relatively more time working in church ministry than devoting time to family responsibilities, engaging in spiritual practices, or volunteering time to civic/community organizations. The presence of school-aged children tends to diminish the relative amount of time spent volunteering in church ministry. The findings of this study suggest church ministry perceived as being child-friendly or strengthening one’s spirituality is more likely to attract relatively greater time commitments from its volunteers.

时间的“形而下”之维： 论现代法律中的时间要素

时间成为法律规范的必备要素,体现了法律与时间关系变化的趋势。比较来看,传统法律呈现出传统社会时间观的鲜明特征,其表达具有明显的自然性,立法水平也较低;现代法律中的时间则是一个更具客观性的概念,且包含着一整套关于时间的规则。根源上,时间嵌入法律肇始于现代化： 一方面,现代化指向与传统截然不同的时间观念与制度,形成了“技术—观念—制度”这一具有传导性的动力机制,为时间嵌入法律提供了主客观条件;另一方面,现代化对法律提出了全新要求,时间作为法律规范要素因之体现在三个维度,即作为权利要件的法律时间、作为行为准则的法律时间和作为惩罚手段的法律时间。     

A temporal analysis of how entrepreneurial goal intentions,positive fantasies,and action planning affect starting a new venture and when the effects wear off

The road from intentions to actions and new venture creation is long. So far, the literature has provided insights into action-regulatory factors that contribute to new venture creation. However, the literature has neglected to take into account the temporal dynamics underlying these relationships. We contribute to action-regulation theories in entrepreneurship by theorizing about and investigating how the effects of action-regulatory factors hold over time. We hypothesize that the action-regulatory factors of entrepreneurial goal intentions, positive fantasies, and action planning have combined effects on new venture creation. Furthermore, we hypothesize that these effects become weaker over time. To test our hypotheses, we studied 96 Ugandan entrepreneurs over 30 months. Our results supported our hypotheses. Action planning moderated the effects of entrepreneurial goal intentions and positive fantasies on new venture creation. Furthermore, the effects were significant in the beginning and wore off over time. Our study shows that including a time frame in theoretical models is important to derive valid conclusions from empirical results and to develop more precise theories.     

地方政府财政政策与企业股权融资:理论与实证

论文通过建立连续时间动态讨价还价模型对地方政府与企业所有者之间的博弈关系进行了理论研究．并对双方策略选择关系进行了实证检验。理论研究的结果表明,如果博弈双方的时间偏好相同,剩余控制权（或者称之为相对讨价还价优势）的配置与博弈双方的福利水平无关：而时间偏好不相同时,剩余控制权的配置将影响双方的福利水平,这个研究结论与是否存在交易成本不必相关。通过实证研究,论文的研究结果表明：（1）地方政府追求预算外盈余的行为会导致其增加财政支出最终导致财政赤字持续增加,但这些财政赤字并没有为企业股权融资提供有效的支持;（2）地方政府的财政更愿意与企业在预算外的领域合作,而企业则更愿意与地方政府在预算内合作：（3）非国有企业较国有企业更愿意和地方政府在预算外合作,而地方政府也更愿意和非国有企业在预算外的领域合作。这些实证结果说明地方政府在时间偏好不一致的情况下拥有剩余控制权。