关于所得税资产负债表债务法的思考

所得税“时间性差异”的概念和债务法的处理方法在国际上已有了进一步的认识和发展,在当今我国会计的国际化进程加快的情况下,引入“暂时性差异”的概念并采用资产负债表债务法来进行该差异的处理是所得税会计的发展趋势。本文通过对两种差异的深入研究及对资产负债表债务法与损益表债务法的比较分析,对资产负债表债务法在我国采用的现实基础及发展前景进行阐述。     

The M/M\1 queue in a heavy-tailed random environment

We consider an M / M /1 queue with the special feature that the speed of the server alternates between two constant values s_L and s_H > s_L . The high-speed periods are exponentially distributed, and the low-speed periods have a regularly varying distribution. We obtain explicit asymptotics for the tail of the workload distribution. The two cases in which the offered traffic load is smaller respectively larger than the low service speed are shown to result in completely different asymptotics.     

A note on the Robust Trend and ARARMA methodologies used in the M3 Competition

This brief note describes two of the forecasting methods used in the M3 Competition, Robust Trend and ARARMA. The origins of these methods are very different. Robust Trend was introduced to model the special features of some telecommunications time series. It was subsequently found to be competitive with Holt’s linear model for the more varied set of time series used in the M1 Competition. The ARARMA methodology was proposed by Parzen as a general time series modelling procedure, and can be thought of as an alternative to the ARIMA methodology of Box and Jenkins. This method was used in the M1 Competition and achieved the lowest mean absolute percentage error for longer forecasting horizons. These methods will be described in more detail and some comments on their use in the M3 Competition conclude this note.     

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively, transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levi's Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately define the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not affected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and of economic-growth variation.Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative – −0.03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0.71% of consumption – US$ 208.98 per person, per year.     

Solving the income fluctuation problem with unbounded rewards

This paper studies the income fluctuation problem without imposing bounds on utility, assets, income or consumption. We prove that the Coleman operator is a contraction mapping over the natural class of candidate consumption policies when endowed with a metric that evaluates consumption differences in terms of marginal utility. We show that this metric is complete, and that the fixed point of the operator coincides with the unique optimal policy. As a consequence, even in this unbounded setting, policy function iteration always converges to the optimal policy at a geometric rate.     

Optimal dividend strategies with time-inconsistent preferences

This paper studies the optimal dividend strategies of an insurance company when the manager has time-inconsistent preferences. We consider the problem for a naive manager and a sophisticated manager, and analytically derive the optimal dividend strategies when claim sizes follow an exponential distribution. Our results show that the manager with time-inconsistent preferences tends to pay out dividends earlier than her time-consistent counterpart and that the sophisticated manager is more inclined to pay out dividends than the naive manager. Furthermore, we extend these results to the case with claim sizes following a mixed exponential distribution, and provide a numerical analysis to reveal the sensitivity of the optimal dividend strategies to changes in the premium, claims and surplus volatility.     

Macroeconomic forecasting using structural factor analysis

The use of a small number of underlying factors to summarize the information from a much larger set of information variables is one of the new frontiers in forecasting. In prior work, the estimated factors have not usually had a structural interpretation and the factors have not been chosen on a theoretical basis. In this paper we propose several variants of a general structural factor forecasting model, and use these to forecast certain key macroeconomic variables. We make the choice of factors more structurally meaningful by estimating factors from subsets of information variables, where these variables can be assigned to subsets on the basis of economic theory. We compare the forecasting performance of the structural factor forecasting model with that of a univariate AR model, a standard VAR model, and some non-structural factor forecasting models. The results suggest that our structural factor forecasting model performs significantly better in forecasting real activity variables, especially at short horizons.     

Mean squared error of the empirical best linear unbiased predictor in an orthogonal finite discrete spectrum linear regression model

The mean squared error (MSE) of the empirical best linear unbiased predictor in an orthogonal finite discrete spectrum linear regression model is derived and a comparison with the MSE of the best linear unbiased predictor in this model is made. It is shown that under weak conditions these two mean square errors are asymptotically the same.     

专利市场化视角下校企发明专利维持时间影响因素比较研究

专利市场化水平通过对专利权人预期收益率的影响与专利维持时间产生联系。对高校和企业发明专利维持时间及其影响因素进行比较,可为提升高校专利市场化水平提供借鉴。从专利市场化视角出发,以华为和华南理工大学（以下简称“华工”）为例,运用回归分析方法对发明专利维持时间影响因素进行研究。结果发现,华为发明专利维持时间较长,且在审查时间、发明人数和权利要求数方面存在较大差异;各自变量对二者发明专利维持时间的解释力度亦有区别。为提升高校专利市场化水平,提出应强化知识产权创造市场导向、优化发明专利性质布局、强化发明专利专业属性、促进校企科研合作等合理化建议。     

Assessing efficiency and investment opportunities in commodities: A time series and portfolio simulations approach

This paper investigates the informational efficiency hypothesis in the short and long term for four major commodity markets (oil, gas, electricity, and coal) from January 1997 to January 2016. Unlike previous studies, we provide a more concise comparative analysis by focusing on different classes of commodities for a large sample, including 5 developed and 3 emerging regions and covering 46 countries. We apply different parametric and non-parametric econometric tests. Our study provides two interesting findings. First, we show that commodity markets are informationally inefficient in the short term. Our portfolio simulations highlight that commodities might provide “good” investment opportunities, but those opportunities vary according to commodity class and regions. Second, we show that most commodity markets become informationally efficient in the long term, thereby reducing investors' interest for the duration. Thus, commodity markets might be used to hedge investor’s portfolios, particularly for speculators and chartists in the short term, while these investments might not be appealing in these markets in the long term.