产业保护政策和第五航权开放

我国第五航权的开放刚开始起步。受传统的产业保护政策、经济全球化及WTO相关开放时间表影响,是否进一步开放航权或是继续给予民航业政策保护成为学术界近期争论的一个焦点。笔者通过借鉴美日两国的产业保护措施,同时以相关产业保护政策理论为基础,分析了我国"开放天空"的利弊,并进一步论证第五航权开放决策是符合我国当前经济发展趋势的。     

机动车交强险与三者险的比较分析

机动车交通事故责任强制保险和第三者责任险是关于机动车的两个重要险种,两者之间在诸多方面存在着差别,商业性三者险在实践中起着补充"交强险"的作用。文章对两个险种进行了全面的比较分析,以利于提高认识,在保险实践中更好地发挥它们的作用。     

Preventing motor vehicle crash injuries and deaths: science vs. folklore lessons from history

Abstract

Not long after the beginnings of motorization in the early 1900s, deaths and injuries from motor vehicle crashes became a problem in a number of high-income-countries (HIC)s, especially the United States. With the biggest problem the US led early efforts to address this issue, and for six decades these efforts were based on folklore (ie a body of widely held but false or unsubstantiated beliefs). They were not evaluated, but clearly were unsuccessful as crash deaths and injuries continued to rise. It was not until the 1970s that a broader range of countermeasures began to be adopted and was scientifically evaluated, and as a result, crash deaths and injuries declined. This history has important lessons today for many low-and-middle-income countries that have growing numbers of motor vehicle crash deaths and injuries, many of which are pedestrians and motorcyclists. This is because there continue to be advocates for many of the failed approaches (especially educational) that dominated the early efforts in HICs.     

A data-driven operational model for traffic at the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport

Airports are on the front line of significant innovations, allowing the movement of more people and goods faster, cheaper, and with greater convenience. As air travel continues to grow, airports will face challenges in responding to increasing passenger vehicle traffic, which leads to lower operational efficiency, poor air quality, and security concerns. This paper evaluates methods for traffic demand forecasting combined with traffic microsimulation, which will allow airport operations staff to accurately predict traffic and congestion. Using two years of detailed data describing individual vehicle arrivals and departures, aircraft movements, and weather at Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport, we evaluate multiple prediction methods including the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) family of models, traditional machine learning models, and DeepAR, a modern recurrent neural network (RNN). We find that these algorithms are able to capture the diurnal trends in the surface traffic, and all do very well when predicting the next 30 minutes of demand. Longer forecast horizons are moderately effective, demonstrating the challenge of this problem and highlighting promising techniques as well as potential areas for improvement.Traffic demand is not the only factor that contributes to terminal congestion, because temporary changes to the road network, such as a lane closure, can make benign traffic demand highly congested. Combining a demand forecast with a traffic microsimulation framework provides a complete picture of traffic and its consequences. The result is an operational intelligence platform for exploring policy changes, as well as infrastructure expansion and disruption scenarios. To demonstrate the value of this approach, we present results from a case study at DFW Airport assessing the impact of a policy change for vehicle routing in high demand scenarios. This framework can assist airports like DFW as they tackle daily operational challenges, as well as explore the integration of emerging technology and expansion of their services into long term plans.     

浅谈加强交通基础设施建设促进现代物流发展

从当前交通基本建设与物流发展的相互关系影响角度出发,在经济发展过程中交通基本建设的必要性,交通基础设施先行是发展现代物流的基本策略,是发达国家发展现代交通物流的成功经验,也是当前我国发展现代物流的先决必要条件。     

交通事故防治对策研究

近年来交通事故急剧上升,重大交通事故时有发生,给国家和家庭造成巨大损失。文中试图通过研究我国交通事故的现状、特点,探讨我国交通事故多发的种种原因,并进一步提出防治交通事故的对策。     

省域高速公路联网监控系统方案设计

省域高速公路的联网监控是高速公路建设的主要趋势,文中设计了省域联网监控系统,阐述了设计的主要目标、整体方案以及各个子系统的功能和构成.     

基于灰色预测模型的铁路客运量预测研究

在介绍灰色预测基本原理和算法的基础上,应用灰色预测理论开发了基于MATLAB的铁路客运量预测程序,主要功能是以交互的方式输入数据,动态输出显示模型曲线图形和方程。通过建立株洲站旅客发送量的灰色预测模型,说明利用灰色模型预测铁路客运量具有良好的精度,可以为客流组织提供依据。     

铁路客运专线成本曲线分析

借鉴国内外客运专线资料,对铁路客运专线运输成本的特性及构成进行论述,并从速度目标值与客运量两方面分析对运输成本的影响,说明速度目标值直接影响客运专线的运输成本,而固定成本与客运量无关,变动成本与客运量成正比变化。     

铁路行包运量预测模型研究

铁路行包运量预测是以运输需求和内部供给为导向,综合考虑各种影响因素,对行包运量现状和发展的正确把握.探讨利用人工神经网络结合主成分分析的方法,建立铁路行包运量预测模型,解释并预测行包专列开行后铁路行包运量的增长趋势.实例分析的仿真结果表明,采用主成分分析法的广义回归神经网络模型结构简洁、预测精度高、收敛速度快,对相关铁路部门和企业的决策具有参考意义.