Proper scoring rules for general decision models

If a decision maker whose behavior conforms to the max-min expected utility model is faced with a scoring rule for a subjective expected utility decision maker, she will always announce a probability belonging to her set of priors; moreover, for any prior in the set, there is a scoring rule inducing the agent to announce that prior. We also show that on the domain of Choquet expected utility preferences with risk neutral lottery evaluation and totally monotone capacities, proper scoring rules do not exist. This implies the non-existence of proper scoring rules for any larger class of preferences (CEU with convex capacities, multiple priors).     

我国城市地下管线综合管廊建设前景展望

综合管廊将各类公用管线集约化地敷设在同一条隧道内并进行集中管理,形成一种现代化、集约化的城市基础设施。本文结合我国城市地下管线综合管廊建设的实际,提出我国建设综合管廊的制约瓶颈和各方的争议焦点,并结合实例,探讨分析了BOT和PPP模式在共同沟投融资模式中的可行性,同时提出立法的必要性,相信随着各项体系的不断完善,综合管廊必将会在我国呈现快速健康发展的趋势。     

论政府价格规制中的公众参与

在政府价格规制中引入公众参与机制有利于价格规制政策的制定。本文基于规制经济理论的分析框架,运用博弈论模拟了公众参与价格规制的讨价还价过程。政府在价格规制中引入公众参与机制,其形式取决于政策质量和公众接受程度两者的权衡。在此基础上对当前我国公用事业价格规制中存在的问题进行分析,并提出政策建议。     

彩票的经济学分析及我国彩票市场主体的取向

本文认为,彩票作为融资手段、理财手段和娱乐方式,可以有效地把社会闲置资金用于福利事业和其他公益事业,可以为日益富裕的人们提供有效的理财工具,为人们提供一种充满爱心的消遣活动,居民购买彩票本质上是个体投机动机驱使下的一种消费行为。文章提出,国家应从积极方面加强监管,减少其负面效应,取消额度控制,大力发展彩票业,因为彩票业不是金融业,政府可以有效调控彩票市场;同时要适度强化居民购买者的“纳税取向”,不仅可以有效规避投机动机的负面效应,对于我国社会经济的长期发展也会发挥积极的作用。     

An empirical study of dynamic customer relationship management

We apply the Gönül and Shi (1998) approach to the analysis of the optimal messaging and pricing policy mix by studying the past transaction patterns between a local supermarket and its consumers. We develop a dynamic customer relationship management model and investigate the relationship between customer utility and purchasing frequency by modifying the return function of the model discussed in Gönül and Shi (1998). In particular, we extend the analysis to consider a messaging and pricing policy mix, and we use a genetic algorithm in our empirical estimation. When applied to some non-seasonal products in a local supermarket, we find that our model is suitable and far superior to the one-stage model commonly used. Our dynamic model gives the optimal marketing mix strategies in different customer states and the results show that the firm could enjoy a 22% increase in profit.     

产品核心竞争力的三大支柱——产品概念 营销观念 价值创新策略

企业对本行业的产品和市场要有整体概念 ,才能形成现代营销新观念。从产品定义、产品规划入手对营销新观念进行介绍和分析 ,结合消费价值、顾客效用和价值创新策略引出了市场与行业的新定义 ,并着重指出创造消费价值对增强产品竞争力的重要性。     

Combining the Effects of OLS and Spread on Futures Hedging: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Index

Abstract:

This study proposes a dynamic hedge ratio, the combined ordinary least squares spread (COLSS), which combines the hedge ratio of ordinary least squares and the value of spread. Using this dynamic ratio for hedging with futures contracts, one can replace spot risk with spread risk. The COLSS captures not only the long-run equilibrium between spot and futures returns, but also the short-run deviation from equilibrium. The spread is forecast by one-period lagged stock market factors and high-order moments that are estimated by an options model. In the in-sample and out-of-sample tests, the COLSS strategy achieves significant risk reduction and outperforms the alternative models by a large utility improvement.     

经济学的理性假设辨析

理性历来是经济学研究秉持的最基本的行为假设,然而自从其概念诞生以来,经济学家们对它的理解与解释却众说纷纭。理性的框架应界定为:利己性、最优化与偏好一致性。对理性假设应该采取秉持实证主义思想,维持理性假设的态度与措施;当理论与现实矛盾时,谨慎地适当地扩展理论模型或环境假设,扩展的底限是维持理性的内在一致性,上限则取决于理论的一般性与现实性的权衡。     

Maxmin expected utility with additivity on unambiguous events

This paper provides a model of beliefs representation in which ambiguity and unambiguity are endogenously distinguished in the maxmin expected utility model of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989). Specifically, I first extend it by getting a representation of beliefs such that the probabilistic beliefs over each ambiguous event are represented by a nondegenerate interval, while the ones over each unambiguous event are represented by a number. I then suggest a behavioral definition of ambiguity. It provides a choice theoretical foundation for the Knightian distinction between ambiguity and unambiguity.     

公共事业组织伦理制度化与路径分析

公共事业组织的伦理建设，不能仅仅依靠道德自律或道德教化来影响公共事业组织成员的行为选择。日益严重的公共事业组织伦理失范现象表明，传统道德自律或道德教化对公共事业组织成员缺乏控制力。公共事业组织伦理的提升与重建必须通过制度化建设来实现。制度化是公共事业组织伦理建设的重要价值取向。公共事业组织伦理的制度化，应着重从树立正确理念、合理划分层次、构建立法体系、强化监督机制这四层路径来推进。