中药外敷与灌肠治疗复发性子宫内膜异位症及控制其复发的临床应用

目的研究使用中药进行外敷及灌肠对复发性的子宫内膜异位症的治疗和控制其复发的方法。方法将我院2010年3月至2011年4月收治的子宫内膜异位症不使用中药治疗的138例患者作为对照组,2011年4月至2012年3月收治的子宫内膜异位症使用中药治疗的176例患者作为治疗A组,另将外院转入出现复发的32例患者作为治疗B组。比较三组患者的治疗效果。结果术后使用中药灌肠及外敷的组在复发率方面明显低于未使用中药外敷及灌肠的组,从外院转入复发的病例,使用中药外敷及灌肠后效果明显。结论使用中药进行中药外敷及灌肠对子宫内膜异位症保守性手术的辅助治疗是非常有效的,且无副作用。     

Estimating local average treatment effects in aggregate data

In some contexts, the effect of a treatment can be estimated with easily accessible aggregate rather than individual data, using difference-in-difference estimation. However, under imperfect assignment within groups, this produces intent-to-treat estimates, which may not be the treatment effect of interest. This article provides a method for estimating local average treatment effects using aggregate data. I also suggest a data source that allows the method to be applied when treatment rates are not recorded.     

社会网络层次与农民工工资水平——基于身份定位模型的分析

本文在身份定位模型框架下研究社会网络层次对农民工工资水平的影响。基于2009年北京市农民工调查数据的计量结果,支持了高层次社会网络影响归属该网络的农民工、使得后者工资水平提高的假设;支持了高层次社会网络除了帮助农民工找工作之外,也可以在就业后通过影响行为模式和生产率来提高工资水平的假设。本文用倾向得分匹配的平均处置效应处理可能的内生性偏误,结论通过了较为严格的稳健性检验。政府鼓励农民工构建基于城市就业和生活的新型社会关系以及高质量的社会网络,不仅可能提高农民工的劳动生产率和相应的工资水平,而且可能提高整个国家人力资本投资的回报水平和劳动生产率水平。     

Dynamic labour supply effects of childcare subsidies: Evidence from a Canadian natural experiment on low-fee universal child care

This paper shows that a temporary incentive to join the labor market or to work more can also produce substantial life-cycle labour supply effects. On September 1997, a new childcare policy was initiated by the provincial government of Québec, the second most populous province in Canada. Licensed and regulated providers of childcare services began offering day care spaces at the subsidized fee of $5/day/child for children aged 4. In successive years, the government reduced the age requirement, created new childcare facilities and spaces, and paid for the additional costs entailed by this low-fee policy. No such important policy changes for preschool (including kindergarten) children were enacted in the nine other Canadian provinces over the years 1997–2004. Using annual data drawn from Statistics Canada's Survey on Labour and Income Dynamics and a difference-in-differences quasi-experimental methodology, the paper estimates the dynamic labour supply effects of the program. The results demonstrate that the policy had long-term labour supply effects on mothers who benefited from the program when their child was less than 6. A striking feature of the results is that they are driven by changes in the labour supply of less educated mothers.     

Decentralization,market integration and efficiency-equity trade-offs: Evidence from Joint Forest Management in Ethiopian villages

Extant literature on Joint Forest Management (JFM) impact evaluation has concluded that it generally does not provide sufficient incentives to justify the costs that forest use restrictions impose on local people. However, there is a dearth of evidence concerning whether alternative JFM intervention with improved market linkages for non-timber forest products has similar implications. In this study, we evaluated the income and distributive effects of a JFM program in Ethiopia in which additional support was provided for improved market linkages for non-timber forest products (NTFPs). Exploiting exogenous variation in customary rights across eligible groups of communities that participate in JFM programs, as well as using heteroskedasticity-based instrumentations, we identified the income and distributive effects of the program. Our analysis shows that the program has raised the income of the households who chose to participate by approximately 400 Ethiopian Birr or 26% of per capita expenditure; that result was robust to various specifications. We also found that this effect is largely driven by marketing incentives to use non-timber forest products. However, we found that the program's benefit is biased toward the upper end of the income distribution, a result that points to the inequality-reinforcing effects of the program.     

Impact of Ghana's agricultural mechanization services center program

Use of mechanization in African agriculture has returned strongly to the development agenda, particularly following the recent high food prices crisis. Many developing country governments—including Ghana, the case study of this article—have resumed support for agricultural mechanization, typically in the form of subsidies for tractor purchase and establishment of private‐sector‐run agricultural mechanization service centers (AMSECs). The aim of this article is to assess the impact of Ghana's AMSEC program on various farm household outcomes, using data from surveys that were conducted with 270 farm households. A two‐stage propensity score matching and difference‐in‐difference estimation procedure is used to estimate the impacts of the program, employing different definitions of treatment, model specifications, and matching algorithms to assess sensitivity of the estimator to different assumptions. The results indicate that the AMSEC program has had a mixed impact on different outcome indicators. For example, whereas the program has contributed to improving availability of mechanization services, reducing drudgery, and raising yield, it has had no impact on the change in the prices paid by farmers for the services used and the change in the amount of area plowed. Implications of the results on labor‐mechanization substitution and for raising and sustaining productivity further are drawn.     

Analysis of treatment response data from eligibility designs

In this paper, we develop and compare two alternative approaches for calculating the effect of the actual intake when treatments are randomized, but compliance with the assignment in the treatment arm is less than perfect for reasons that are correlated with the outcome. The approaches are based on different identification assumptions about these unobserved confounders. In the first approach, which stems from [Sommer, A., Zeger, S., 1991. On estimating efficacy in clinical trials. Statistics in Medicine 10, 45–52], the unobserved confounders are modeled by a discrete indicator variable that represents subject-type, defined in terms of the potential intake in the face of each possible assignment. In the second approach, confounding is modeled without reference to subject-type in the spirit of the Roy model. Because the two models are non-nested, and model comparison and assessment of the approaches in a real data setting is one of our central goals, we formulate the discussion from a Bayesian perspective, comparing the two models in terms of marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors, and in terms of inferences about the treatment effects. The latter we calculate from a predictive perspective in a way that is different from that in the literature, where typically only a point summary of that effect is calculated. Our real data analysis focuses on the JOBS II eligibility trial that was implemented to test the effectiveness of a job search seminar in decreasing the negative mental health effects commonly associated with job loss. We provide a comparative analysis of the data from the two approaches with prior distributions that are both reasonable in the context of the data and comparable across the model specifications. We show that the approaches can lead to different evaluations of the treatment.     

"民工荒"的成因及对策分析

本文根据托达罗预期收益理论,对2004年以来我国部分地区出现的“民工荒”现象进行了分析,认为“民工荒”是农民工对预期收益与成本进行比较分析后做出的选择,并提出,要解决“民工荒”问题必须从提高农民工的工资待遇和改善农民工的社会福利入手。     

Decomposing the effects of financial liberalization: Crises vs. growth

We present a new empirical decomposition of the effects of financial liberalization on economic growth and on the incidence of crises. Our empirical estimates show that the direct effect of financial liberalization on growth by far outweighs the indirect effect via a higher propensity to crisis. We also discuss several models of financial liberalization and growth whose predictions are consistent with our empirical findings.