Time-varying betas and the cross-sectional return–risk relation: evidence from the UK

The seminal study by Fama and MacBeth in 1973 initiated a stream of papers testing for the cross-sectional relation between return and risk. The debate as to whether beta is a valid measure of risk was reanimated by Fama and French and subsequent studies. Rather than focusing on exogenous variables that have a larger explanatory power than an asset's beta in cross-sectional tests, the matrix of variances-covariances is assumed to follow a time varying ARCH process. Using monthly data from the UK market from February 1975 to December 1996, the cross-sectional return–risk relations obtained with an unconditional specification for assets’ betas are compared to those obtained when the estimated betas are based on an ARCH model. The approach taken by Pettengill, Sundaram and Mathur, which allows a negative cross sectional return–risk relation in periods in which the market portfolio yields a negative return relative to the risk free rate, was also investigated. These tests are also carried out on samples pertaining to a specific month and on samples from which a particular month is removed. Results suggest that the CAPM holds better in downward moving markets than in upward moving markets hence beta is a more appropriate measure of risk in bear markets.     

The Long-Term Price-Earnings Ratio

Abstract:  The price-earnings effect has been thoroughly documented and is the subject of numerous academic studies. However, in existing research it has almost exclusively been calculated on the basis of the previous year's earnings. We show that the power of the effect has until now been seriously underestimated due to taking too short-term a view of earnings. Looking at all UK companies since 1975, using the traditional P/E ratio we find the difference in average annual returns between the value and glamour deciles to be 6%. This is similar to other authors' findings. We are able to almost double the value premium by calculating the P/E ratio using earnings averaged over the previous eight years.     

Attitudes towards training in UK licensed retail: an exploratory case study

This paper identifies the extent to which licensees and their staff are trained for their roles in public houses. All 27 licensees in a small Cheshire town were surveyed and several were subsequently interviewed in depth. Qualifications varied considerably and ranged from zero to a degree in catering. No tenant or lessee had been obliged to attend a course, whereas all managers had been trained by their employers, often with appropriate NVQ awards. All of the licensees ensured that staff were trained to their satisfaction, but the extent and aims of this training varied considerably.     

The Arrival Rate of Initial Public Offers in the UK

The Initial Public Offer (IPO) is an important event in the development of a firm yet there is little evidence regarding why firms choose certain times to come to the market. This paper extends the available evidence, concentrating on UK data and addressing a number of econometric problems with earlier papers. These advances include acknowledging the non-negative integer characteristics of count data, compensating for non-stationarity in the data, and explicitly testing for causality. The paper examines the incentives to conduct an IPO and the results suggest that both the value and number of IPOs are positively and significantly associated with the level of the stock market, with the introduction of the USM, and, in the case of the number of IPOs, positively and significantly associated with a business cycle indicator. Tests of causality suggest that the stock index predicts both the value and number of IPOs.     

英国经济面临内忧外患 复苏前景堪忧

2011年以来,随着全球多数地区经济形势出现反复,英国经济亦增长乏力,主要表现为失业人数增加,通胀压力加剧,商业投资持续下滑,消费需求不足,贸易逆差持续扩大等。英国货币和财政政策面临既要促进经济增长,又要控制通货膨胀和紧缩财政的两难选择,而外部经济金融的波动,更增加了英国经济的不确定性。     

英国住房保障政策的体系、进展与反思

英国是世界上最早实施政府干预住房市场的国家,早在1919年颁布的《住房和城镇规划法》中就明确规定居民住房问题为公共事务,政府对此负有义务。经过不断的摸索和改进,英国的住房保障政策从起初的政府直接供给公共住房,逐渐向政府以财政、金融等手段鼓励扶持社会化公共住房的建造与运营转变。本文对英国20世纪90年代以来的住房保障体系演变与发展现状做了介绍,并重点对扶持政策、资助项目、主管机构、融资方式等方面进行了详细阐述,以期对今后我国住房保障相关政策的研究制定有所启示。     

The Determinants of Firm Exit from Exporting: Evidence for the UK

This study seeks to understand to what extent new exporters are able to survive in international markets and whether exit from exporting is more likely to be associated with firm-level heterogeneity or more general factors such as trade costs and/or barriers to entry and exit (such as sunk costs). This study presents the first analysis undertaken for a nationally representative group of UK firms on the determinants of exit from exporting, using panel data covering all market-based sectors of the UK during 1997–2003. Our findings suggest that the probability of a firm ceasing to export is directly influenced by its productivity and other attributes associated with firm-level productivity differences (such as size and foreign ownership). Micro-finance factors, such as profitability and the ability to finance through long-term debt, play an additional role. Lastly, sectoral differences (e.g. industrial concentration) also help explain the firm’s exit decision, whilst trade costs lead to a higher probability of exiting from selling internationally.     

LIFE WITHOUT TRUCKS: THE IMPACT OF A TEMPORARY DISRUPTION OF ROAD FREIGHT TRANSPORT ON A NATIONAL ECONOMY

Twice over the past 30 years Britain has suffered severe paralysis of its road freight system. This paper explores the likely consequences of a complete cessation of trucking services over the period of a week. By analysing inventory levels, lead times, dependence on road transport and opportunities for substitution in critical sectors, it forecasts a rapid rate of economic collapse.     

金融业对英国经济增长和贸易收支的贡献

英国的产业结构和贸易结构已经进入典型的“后工业化时代”,金融业在国内市场、离岸市场和海外市场全面发展,在英国各大产业中增速最快,已经取代制造业成为英国经济增长的发动机。金融业还是当代英国最具全球比较优势和国际竞争力的产业,巨大的金融服务贸易顺差有力地改善了英国的贸易收支,金融业已经成为缓解英国贸易失衡的主要缓冲器。     

Customer Service in UK call centres: : organisational perspectives and employee perceptions

The 1990s have witnessed a dramatic rise in consumer demand for, and hence provision of, call centres in the UK. Central to the success of call centres is customer service. Although there exists an ever-expanding tranche of literature on call centres and customer service, it primarily focuses on aspects of their functionality. In contrast, this article encompasses analysis of organisational perspectives and employee perceptions in its review of the contemporary nature of customer service in UK call centres. Drawing from recent, exploratory research, the article asserts that, in general, there is significant potential for improving customer service and satisfaction through the medium of more sophisticated employee management practices.