四川省国有控股上市公司社会责任综合评价

国有控股上市公司作为特殊的公众公司,践行社会责任是其可持续发展的应有之义和必然诉求。本文从国有控股上市公司社会责任评价体系的构建出发,运用灰色关联分析法对2008年四川省国有控股上市公司社会责任履行情况进行了综合评价,旨在促进国有控股上市公司与资本市场的和谐稳定健康发展。     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

The Non-Trivial Choice between Innovation Indicators

We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of five alternative innovation indicators: R&D, patent applications, total innovation expenditure and shares in sales taken by imitative and by innovative products as they were measured in the 1992 Community Innovation Survey (CIS) in the Netherlands. We conclude that the two most commonly used indicators (R&D and patent applications) have more (and more severe) weaknesses than is often assumed. Moreover, our factor analysis suggests that there is little correlation between the various indicators. This underlines the empirical relevance of various sources of bias of innovation indicators as discussed in this paper.     

Growth without normal capacity utilization

Within the demand-led approach to growth, the long-period tendencies of quantities cannot be effectively studied through theoretical positions entailing normal utilization of capacity. Whether in the form of constant or of average normal utilization, this assumption contradicts the supposed autonomy of aggregate demand. Analysis of the operation of the adjustment of capacity to demand suggests that potentially offsetting forces make fully adjusted positions irrelevant. As quantities cannot be assumed to gravitate towards such positions, the relations between quantity variables determined on the normal utilization hypothesis provide a poor guide to the analysis of reality.     

上海市产学研合作效率评价——基于分行业数据的DEA分析

通过建立产学研合作创新效率的评价指标体系,应用数据包络分析(DEA)方法对上海市13个主要制造业的产学研合作创新效率进行了实证分析。结果表明,上海市政府研发投入的力度较大,产学研合作的体制正在形成,但是尚有一些行业其研发投入的效率还有待提高。因此,在推动产学研合作的过程中要注重竞争机制的引入,同时发挥市场导向与政府引导的作用,不断探索新的产学研合作方式,并结合行业特点动态调整政府介入的方式,因地制宜地制定产学研合作创新的政策,提高产学研合作创新的效率。     

ISO 14001 and the Reduction of Toxic Emissions

ISO 14001 is an international standard for Environmental Management Systems, adopted by over 36,000 organizations worldwide. This paper attempts to determine the length of time after which a given company has implemented ISO 14001 experiences emission reduction. The sample used is a group of 264 manufacturing facilities in the USA, which represent 23 percent of all the ISO 14001 certified organizations in the US, analyzed throughout the period from 1996 to 2001. The results show that 75 percent of the companies experienced a reduction in their emissions, among which 53 percent had already done so just one year after obtaining ISO 14001.     

Nowcasting China’s GDP Using a Bayesian Approach

Real time nowcasting is an assessment of current-quarter GDP from timely released economic and financial series before the GDP figure is disseminated. Providing a reliable current quarter nowcast in real time based on the most recently released economic and financial monthly data is crucial for central banks to make policy decisions and longer-term forecasting exercises. In this study, we use dynamic factor models to bridge monthly information with quarterly GDP and achieve reduction in the dimensionality of the monthly data. We develop a Bayesian approach to provide a way to deal with the unbalanced features of the dataset and to estimate latent common factors. We demonstrate the validity of our approach through simulation studies, and explore the applicability of our approach through an empirical study in nowcasting the China’s GDP using 117 monthly data series of several categories in the Chinese market. The simulation studies and empirical study indicate that our Bayesian approach may be a viable option for nowcasting the China’s GDP.     

基于方差分解法的中国股市泡沫检验问题研究

基于理性投机泡沫理论,采用方差分解法对2005年5月到2012年9月上证综指是否存在泡沫以及泡沫的严重程度进行实证检验,并将检验结果同动态自回归法得到的结果进行比较。研究发现该方法能更有效地检测出我国股市中存在的严重投机性泡沫。     

基于主成分分析法的人类发展指数替代技术

在本文中,我们采用基于协方差的主成分分析法来分析1990年以来UNDP发布的中国人类发展数据,然后采用Spearman秩相关系数来分析获得的主成分与HDI之间的关系。研究表明,主成分分析法不仅能够有效地替代传统的人类发展指数编制方法,其形成的动态权重结构还可以有效地透视人类发展差距模式的历史演进过程,以及人类发展的各个方面(如预期寿命、知识教育和体面的生活等)在整体发展进程中的角色变化。对中国人类发展数据的分析结果也表明,尽管1990年以来中国各地区在经济、教育和健康方面均取得了重大进步,但三项发展之间存在着严重的不协调,地区发展差距也越来越多地体现为经济发展差距,这些反映了改革开放以来中国各级政府过分强调经济增长而带来的片面、不协调的人类发展。实现经济社会的协调发展,是时代的要求,也是当前我国各级政府面临的主要任务。而强调公共服务职能、推动地方政府的服务型转型,是消除不平衡发展的关键。     

中国海洋产业灰色关联及发展前景分析

本文根据中国海洋统计年鉴和国家海洋局公布的中国海洋经济统计公报提供的数据资料,利用灰色关联分析原理与方法对中国海洋产业发展进行了关联度分析,并在此基础上分析了海洋产业发展前景与趋势。