Stock price synchronicity,cognitive biases,and momentum

The momentum anomaly is widely attributed to investor cognitive biases, but the trigger of cognitive biases is largely unexplored. In this study, inspired by psychology studies linking cognitive biases to the noisiness of information, we examine whether momentum returns are associated with high stock price synchronicity, a manifestation of noisy firm-specific information. Our results demonstrate that momentum is more pronounced in the presence of high stock price synchronicity. This finding is robust to other explanations and firm characteristics. We also find that stock price synchronicity boosts the profitability of momentum by amplifying investor underreaction to new information.     

大学生创新创业认知行为模式研究

大学生创新创业认知行为模式有其特殊性，大学生因年龄和社会阅历等决定其创新创业认知始于感性，要经多维环境持续相互作用才能达到完全认知。从大学生创新创业能力来源出发，对大学生创新创业认知特点进行研究，构建大学生创新创业认知行为宏观、中观、微观三维“耦合”模型，同时探讨大学生对创新创业资源的认知，指出现有研究存在的不足，并对大学生创新创业认知行为模式未来研究进行展望。     

Lapses in long-term care insurance

About a quarter of long-term care insurance (LTCI) policy holders aged 65 let their policies lapse before death, forfeiting all benefits. We find that lapse rates are substantially higher among the cognitively impaired in the Health and Retirement Study. This generates a pernicious form of dynamic advantageous selection, as the cognitively impaired are more likely to use care. Simulations show that an inappropriately optimistic asset drawdown path further increases the individual welfare cost of unanticipated lapses. Meanwhile, we find evidence of a significant but very small role for either strategic or financial motives for lapsing.     

How do changes in household economic conditions affect cognitive function?

This study examines the effects of changes in household economic conditions on cognitive function using individual panel data from the National Survey of the Japanese Elderly. This study captures the objective and subjective economic conditions and examines which aspects of economic conditions affect cognitive function. The results demonstrate that deterioration in economic conditions damages cognitive function. In particular, objective economic conditions measured by income affect the cognitive function of Japanese men. This study also assesses possible pathways through which economic conditions affect cognitive function.     

Does writing down goodwill imperil a CEO’s job?

We find that accounting charges for goodwill impairment, which imply a deterioration in the capabilities of acquired assets to generate expected cash flows, provide useful indicators of CEO underperformance. The results show that the size and presence of a goodwill impairment charge are positively associated with forced, but not voluntary, CEO turnovers. This implies that goodwill impairment provides information before CEO changes occur. We also find that goodwill impairment has incremental power to predict forced turnover when it is unexpected based on book value relative to market value of equity and when it runs counter to overall firm performance. The association between goodwill impairment and forced CEO turnover varies with audit quality, consistent with the importance of the perceived reliability of accounting information for its effect on CEO retention decisions. Given that the FASB recently considered eliminating annual goodwill impairment testing (FASB, 2022) whereas the IASB not only prefers impairment testing but is considering requiring additional related disclosures (IASB, 2020), our evidence on the informativeness of goodwill impairment charges is timely.     

主观规范、认知态度对养老服务消费意愿的影响——基于社会嵌入理论

基于社会嵌入理论，依据实地调研数据，采用偏最小二乘结构方程模型，考量主观规范、认知态度对养老服务消费意愿的影响。结果显示：老年人感受到的主观规范越强，其养老服务消费意愿越强，尤其在弱关系场景。主观知识在网络密度与养老服务消费意愿关系中起中介作用，46.99%的网络密度影响通过信息增益实现。异质性检验结果显示：网络密度对60岁以上老年群体的积极影响增强，而网络位置影响转为消极；主观知识对城市地区、高收入、高教育水平老年群体的积极影响更显著，低收入老年消费者群体养老服务消费决策更依赖于社会网络带来的资源改善。鉴于此，可培养老年社群宣传代理人，强化社会规范影响；结合多层次媒体嵌入，营造养老服务消费氛围；实施城乡差异化养老服务推广策略，提升养老服务消费意愿。     

中国通用航空产业补贴效率及最优补贴制度研究—以低空飞行服务业为例

补贴效率是检验补贴制度设计合理性、运行有效性的核心标准。研究发现,我国通用航空飞行服务业补贴制度存在相对供给挤占、暂时性收益陷阱、恶性亏损经营和资金体内循环4类突出的效率损失及福利侵蚀问题,补贴对通航运营企业经营效益提升无显著影响。立足补贴效率受损形式并顺应有效供给和需求严重不足的产业发展矛盾,以社会福利和外部性为核心,从结构重塑、机制优化两个维度出发,全面建立我国通用航空飞行服务业补贴制度并探讨最优补贴边界,最大化补贴效益。首先,以需求二维影响机制为理论支撑,搭建“需求侧保险费率补贴制度+供给端弹性补贴计划”的双侧补贴模式,减缓有效供需规模偏小对企业短期非理性补贴行为的过度激化。其次,从调整补贴标准、丰富补贴层次、规范补贴流程、定位补贴属性4个方面着手深度优化供给侧补贴计划,并以应用事后补贴安排、筹建再保险补贴基金的形式细化需求侧补贴内容,以期最大程度减少补贴效率损耗对预期补贴福利的影响。     

协作频谱感知中数据融合与决策算法比较

协作频谱感知中融合多个认知用户的本地检测结果并准确判决至关重要.研究了基于大数合并的硬判决和基于置信(最大似然)合并的软判决,对不同算法的检测性能和复杂度进行了定性和定量的分析和比较.指出未来协作频谱感知中应结合协作用户数的优化和控制信道条件进行数据融合和决策算法设计.