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31.
An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Abstract:  This paper assesses the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries. The time period of our data spans several decades. In a time series framework our analysis first tests the presence of a long-term contemporaneous relationship between these three variables (the so-called Fed model). Next, we assess if government bond yields play a significant role in the long-run relationship. Our empirical results question the validity of the Fed model in the sense that we show that long-term market movements are mainly driven by the earnings yield and not the differential between bond and earnings yields. As such, our analysis validates the results of Asness (2003) for a much larger collection of countries while using a dynamic time series (cointegration) framework. Finally, we also show that changes in long-term government bond yields have a short-term impact on stock prices.  相似文献   
32.
This article empirically analyzes the domestic and external inflation determinants for eight non-eurozone new EU member states (NMS), using a structural vector autoregression model. Results indicate that foreign shocks are a major factor in explaining inflation dynamics in the medium run, while the short-run inflation dynamics are mainly influenced by domestic shocks. Moreover, the importance of the foreign inflation component has had a rising trend in the precrisis period in all NMS and mostly coincided with their accession to the EU. This trend ended with the onset of the global financial crisis. The study implicates the need to augment the classical Taylor rule with foreign factors in the case of small open economies.  相似文献   
33.
We consider a monetary authority that provides an explicit inflation target in order to align expectations with the policy objective. However, biased perceptions of the target may arise due to imperfect information flows. We allow agents to revise expectations over time and we model their recursive choice among prediction strategies as an optimization problem under rational inattention. We then investigate whether a simple policy rule can steer the economy toward the targeted equilibrium. Our findings suggest that determinacy under rational expectations may not be sufficient to reach the target. Instead, monetary policy should be fine‐tuned to correct agents' biased beliefs.  相似文献   
34.
    
This study examines the timing and speed with which inflation futures prices absorb inflation information. Results of the study show that inflation futures prices already reflect the expected inflation. Moreover, 71% of unexpected inflation has been reflected in futures prices about 25 business days prior to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement, which usually coincides with the end of the CPI measurement period. Reaction to the remaining 29% occurs on and shortly after the CPI announcement date, especially on day 0 and day 2. The inflation risk premium that investors are willing to pay to avoid uncertain inflation is estimated to be 1.41% per annum.  相似文献   
35.
成本视角下中国通货膨胀的成因与治理研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
本文基于状态空间模型和时间序列实证检验结果表明,从供给的角度来看,引起物价变化的原因主要在于原材料价格的变动,劳动力价格的变动只是次要阂素。而国内原材料的价格很大程度上受国际大宗商品价格高企的影响。关于劳动力供给维度,分析显示:假设相关制度性创新进程能够加快,至少在短期内我们大可不必高估刘易斯拐点对中国经济增长和通胀的影响。最后,提出了相关建议。  相似文献   
36.
潘婷 《价值工程》2010,29(13):44-44
在国际金融危机持续蔓延时期,各国出台相应政策扭转不利局势。我国政府在2008年和2009年也出台了多项宏观政策来应对危机,并取得了一定的成效。危机已过,余波未平,在后金融危机时期,这些政策发挥着怎样的作用,今后宏观调控的方针和措施是什么?本文将针对这些问题一一解读。  相似文献   
37.
王莉  袁晓娜 《价值工程》2011,30(5):136-136
对通货膨胀与人民币升值"悖论"的解释分为两个方面:导致通货膨胀不能"替代"人民币升值的原因是人民币升值预期的持续性和稳定性;导致人民币升值不能"替代"通货膨胀的原因是人民币汇率升值与通货膨胀传导机制失效,本轮通货膨胀主要是受食品价格上涨拉动的结构型通货膨胀,而非输入性通货膨胀,以及物价上涨的原因的多样性。  相似文献   
38.
This paper thinks that the price of a commodity depends on both the value of the commodity and that of the currency. The change in either value will cause the change of the price of the commodity. Only the price rising caused by the decreasing of the currency value can be called inflation, and the price rising led by the increasing of the value of the merchandise can not be called inflation. Therefore, it is not proper, as defined by the modem economics, to think that any price increasing should be in general called inflation.  相似文献   
39.
This paper studies the disequilibrium transition process engaged by increased openness to trade, and the effect of institutions, market behaviors and economic policies on that transition. The issue is analyzed with a simple two country (north and south), two goods model, amended in order to take into account the time dimension of both the production and the decision processes. Investigating the consequences of a tariff decrease by means of numerical simulations, we show to what extent wage and price setting, and the degree of tightness of monetary policy affect the outcome of the disequilibrium process. The main result is that capturing the gains associated with international trade requires market behaviors and economic policies, which are rather different from what is usually prescribed.
Francesco SaracenoEmail:
  相似文献   
40.
Sajid Anwar  John Rice   《Economic Modelling》2009,26(6):1135-1139
This paper examines the impact of labour mobility and increased competition on skilled–unskilled wage inequality and foreign investment. Unlike the existing literature this paper considers a model where foreign investment is endogenously determined. The paper shows that in the shortrun, inflow of either skilled or unskilled labour has no effect on wage inequality but increased competition increases wage inequality. Inflow of either type of labour increases foreign investment but the impact of increased competition on foreign investment cannot be unambiguously determined. Inflow of skilled labour increases wage inequality in the longrun and its effect on foreign investment is positive. Increased competition in the longrun increases wage inequality, foreign investment and welfare.  相似文献   
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