试论住宅市场困境对社会转型及发展的影响与政策取向

住宅市场需求结构的内在冲突、供给结构的内在矛盾、产品供求的失衡、消费结构的不合理及伴随而来的房价虚高,构成当前的住宅市场困境。这种困境,不但造成经济资源的高度积聚,同时扭曲了“第三次分配”,进一步恶化了社会转型与发展的环境。在特定的历史背景下,住宅问题不仅是经济问题,更突显出其社会性和政治性。本文在深入分析住宅市场困境对社会转型与发展的影响的基础上,提出了相关的政策性建议和措施。     

Consumption externalities: a representative consumer model when agents are heterogeneous

We examine a growth model with consumption externalities where agents differ in their initial capital endowment and their reference group. We show under which conditions the aggregate equilibrium with heterogeneous agents replicates that obtained with a representative consumer, despite the fact that different individuals have different consumption levels. Next we consider the implications of the presence of consumption externalities for the long-run distributions of income and wealth. We find that, in a growing economy, “keeping up with the Joneses” results in less inequality than would prevail in an economy with no consumption externalities.     

路径依赖负面效应下的企业战略选择探究

路径依赖强调的是惯性的力量能把人们带入定势的死角,人们一旦选择了某个制度,就好比走上了一条不归之路,把这个制度不断自我强化,让你轻易走不出去。企业战略选择是企业战略管理的关键,由于自身的特点,很容易陷入路径依赖效应下的窠臼。因而如何克服企业战略选择的路径依赖的负面效应成为企业战略管理成功与否的关键。     

An information diffusion model for momentum effect based on investor wealth

We propose a private information diffusion model to explain the momentum, which considers different amounts of investor wealth and uses the proportion of informed investors’ wealth to measure information diffusion speed. Different distributions of investor wealth can lead to different information diffusion processes, and the speed of information diffusion is positively correlated with the concentration of investor wealth. Our empirical results reveal the relationship between momentum return and information diffusion speed by the S&P 500 stocks in two periods of the upmarket. The results show that stocks with faster information diffusion speed gain higher time-series momentum returns, especially under short holding period strategies. These results provide new evidence for the correlation between information diffusion and the momentum effect.     

有序选择因子结构模型的MCMC估计及应用

为了评估中国分布类政策效应,根据中国微观数据的变量可得性,本文在Heckman等构建的因子结构模型基础上,将Heckman基准模型中的连续型测度方程调整为离散型有序选择模型,建立了有序选择因子结构模型,并推导出MCMC估计方法。运用该方法,结合中国样本数据,本文对高等教育的分布类政策效应进行了实证估计。有序选择因子结构模型及其MCMC估计方法对于经济政策的分布类效应评估具有普遍的理论适应性和实际应用价值。     

贸易自由化的环境效应——来自中国制造业企业的证据

本文利用1998-2012年中国工业企业污染数据,考察贸易自由化对中国企业污染排放的影响及其作用机制.研究发现:贸易自由化显著降低了企业的污染排放量;资源再配置效应是贸易自由化降低行业污染排放量的重要渠道;在非出口企业、技术密集型企业、东部地区企业和外资企业,贸易自由化引起的污染降低效应更强.影响机制检验发现,贸易自由...     

A nonlinear wealth transfer from shareholders to creditors around Chapter 11 filing

Past literature has assumed that negative stock returns around Chapter 11 filing are solely due to new adverse information about firm value. This paper argues that there is also a nonlinear wealth transfer from shareholders to creditors causing shareholder loss. The magnitude of the wealth transfer can be quantified in a setting where equity is a call option on firm assets as in the Merton (1974) model. The wealth transfer originates from maturity shortening of the call option as a result of Chapter 11 filing. I present a parsimonious model to explain why Chapter 11 can be voluntarily filed by managers acting in the interest of shareholders with the existence of the wealth transfer. The model-predicted stock return has comparable magnitude as observed stock returns around filing, and explains the cross-sectional variation of the latter.     

中国上市公司参与银行理财产品市场投资特征

本文对参与银行理财产品市场的中国A股上市公司进行了统计分析和模型检验,分析了其参与时的数据特征及申购动机。研究发现,中国上市公司参与银行理财产品市场的深度与其最新一期现金余额及等价物规模、净资产大小成显著正相关关系。就整体及平均水平而言,上市公司属于深圳证券交易所的中小企业时,参与银行理财产品市场越深入,不论中央国企还是地方国企,参与深度都高于私人企业,相对于地处东部沿海城市的企业,处于中西部地区的上市公司参与银行理财产品的深度较大。相对于私人企业和地处东部沿海城市的企业,公司为地方国有企业并处于中西部地区时,上市公司参与银行理财产品的弹性较低。同时,银行理财产品的收益率显著影响上市公司参与理财市场的深度和弹性。     

How to evaluate the effects of climate change on tourism

The aim of this study is to assess the most relevant quantitative approaches to evaluating the effects of climate change on tourism. In recent years, numerous empirical studies have conducted evaluations of this kind, based on different methodologies and perspectives. This review shows that the effects of climate change can first be assessed through changes in physical conditions essential to tourism; secondly, by using climate indexes to measure the attractiveness of tourist destinations; and, thirdly, by modelling tourism demand with the inclusion of climate determinants. The review suggests that, although some methodologies are in the early stages of development, different approaches result in a similar map of those areas mainly affected by the problem.     

中小股东积极主义对债券持有人财富的溢出影响——基于网络投票数据的实证研究

互联网降低了中小股东获取和使用信息的成本,也方便其借助网络进行投票表决。本文借助2008—2018年深交所上市公司的股东大会网络投票数据,基于公司债券持有人视角,理论分析和实证检验了中小股东积极主义的溢出效应。实证结果表明:中小股东主观上基于自身利益的积极主义行为,客观上能够显著增加所在公司的债券持有人财富,即存在正向溢出效应,并且该正向效应在统计和经济意义上均具有高度显著性。在控制内生性影响后,该作用依然存在。进一步探究其内在机理发现,中小股东积极主义通过提升公司业绩和增强财务稳健性,进而增加其所在公司的债券持有人财富。该溢出效应在较差的内部治理环境、投资者学习效应和畅通的外部信息渠道下更为显著。