New Labour at work: long-term unemployment and the geography of opportunity

New Labour has placed great faith in active labour market policiesto address problems of long-term unemployment and poverty. Thispaper considers the effectiveness of welfare-to-work programmesin light of persistent regional employment disparities withinthe UK. It is argued that the government has proceeded froma flawed analysis of the causes and magnitude of long-term unemployment,framing the issue in terms of ‘worklessness’ andneglecting demand-side concerns of job availability and jobquality.     

中美双边工业品增加值贸易隐含碳福利核算与分配问题研究

现代贸易方式不仅导致贸易利益在全球价值链上进行分配,还带来了贸易隐含污染排放在全球贸易网络中的分布。两国之间的贸易利益分配除了表现为贸易经济福利的分配,还表现为贸易隐含碳福利的分配。本文将贸易增加值分解法结合MRIO模型对2000—2014年中美双边工业品贸易增加值所隐含的碳福利分配及影响机制展开深入分析。研究结果表明:(1)在中美双边工业品增加值贸易隐含碳福利分配中,碳福利逆差在中国,碳福利顺差在美国;(2)中美工业品贸易碳福利级差经历了“先扩大,后收窄”的过程,美国次贷危机之后双边碳福利不平衡状况重新呈现扩大趋势;(3)中国碳排放强度下降、价值链地位提升以及对美进口规模扩大都有助于改善碳福利逆差的局面,但美国对中国不断扩大的中间品和最终品需求以及双边复杂的技术关联结构仍是中国碳福利逆差的主导因素;(4)全球价值链的深化可能将导致对出口国加征关税会通过降低进口消费侧排放的方式恶化加征国的贸易隐含碳福利。本文研究的时间范围同时覆盖中国加入WTO以及美国次贷危机两个重要节点,这对于重新审视中美经贸关系新格局下双边贸易隐含碳福利分配构建了一个新的分析视角,为中美未来贸易谈判以及全球碳排放责任认定提供了一个新的解读方向。     

A trade theoretic analysis of outward capital flows: with special reference to Hong Kong

This paper sets up a trade theoretic model to explain the output, price and welfare consequences of the outward investment from Hong Kong to the Pearl River Delta. A four-good trade theoretic model is set up to incorporate some special features of the Hong Kong Economy. We assume that the economy produces four goods: an exportable good, an importable good and two non-traded goods. A special feature of the model is that one of the non-traded goods (locally produced) is also consumed by foreigners and produced under the assumption of non-competitive market framework. As tourist or business-centre trade is of great significance to Hong Kong, this model allows us to capture this phenomenon. First, precise conditions are derived regarding the decline in manufacturing output in Hong Kong. Second, it is shown that, in spite of the supply side determination of the relative price of non-traded goods, income effects in this market are of great significance in both income (welfare) and output movements. These income effects cannot be captured in industrial organization type applied work. Third, it is shown how outflow of capital affects labour productivity. A surprising result obtained for this part of the analysis is that a fall in productivity (outflow of capital and de-industrialization) creates a favourable terms-of-trade effect in the monopolized sector. The welfare effect consists of four terms: (1) a terms-of trade effect via the price of non-traded goods consumed by tourists/foreigners; (2) the loss (gain) in productivity due to an outflow of capital; (3) repatriation payments; and (4) the gains from exporting from the Special Economic Zones as well as other Pearl River Delta cities. Our decomposition has two very important features in contrast to traditional models: a terms-of-trade effect from the consumption of services and productivity gains or losses. The last point is exceedingly important for policy makers specifically if outward flow of capital affects productivity negatively.     

Appetite for destruction: Counterintuitive effects of attractive faces on people's food choices

Faces in general and attractive faces, in particular, are frequently used in marketing, advertising, and packaging design. However, few studies have examined the effects of attractive faces on people's choice behavior. The present research examines whether attractive (vs. unattractive) faces increase individuals’ inclination to choose either healthy or unhealthy foods. In contrast to the beliefs held by most marketing professors, but consistent with visceral state theories, exposure to attractive (vs. unattractive) opposite-sex faces increased choice likelihood of unhealthy foods. This effect was moderated by self-view-relevant attributes and exerted a particularly powerful influence on individuals who were single (vs. in a relationship) and individuals rating themselves as unattractive (vs. attractive). Furthermore, the effect was mediated by arousal, was stronger for men than for women, but did not generalize after exposure to attractive (vs. unattractive) same-sex faces. As pictorial exposure is sufficient for the effect to occur, these findings have important implications for marketing, advertising, and public health.     

自由贸易及跨界污染背景下的国际环境政策协调

文章构建了一个考虑跨界污染损害的福利函数,推导出自由贸易背景下某国的最优污染税,并与世界福利最大化时的最优污染税进行比较,以说明国家间环境政策协调的必要性。文章考虑了四种情况,分析结果表明,只有在该国为小国且污染不跨界时不需要国际协调;当该国为大国或者污染跨界时,单个国家的独立行为通常不会产生合意的世界福利水平,此时需要国际协调以实现世界福利最大化。大国的污染政策具有贸易条件效应,因而出口国有设定过高污染税的激励,而进口国则会设定过低的污染税,双方都寻求转变贸易条件以有利于本方。而污染跨界时单个国家通常会有"搭便车"的激励,此时会实施较为宽松的环境政策。     

中国—东盟自由贸易区“10 1”方案的福利效应分析

中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立是双方加强经济合作的必然要求,同时也顺应了经济全球化和区域经济一体化的趋势,有利于双方更好地分享区域经济一体化所带来的好处。然而,当前我国和东盟各国的比较优势都集中在劳动密集型产品上,各成员国之间存在着较强的竞争性,自由贸易区建成后我国和东盟各国能否从中获得更大的利益?本文从福利经济学的角度出发,分析了建立“10 1”自由贸易区所可能产生的各种福利效应。     

Global monetary policy under a dollar standard

This paper derives an optimal monetary policy in a world with a dollar standard, defined as an environment in which all traded goods prices are set in US dollars, so that exchange rate pass-through into the US price level is zero. We show that the US is essentially indifferent to exchange rate volatility, while the rest of the world places a high weight on exchange rate volatility. In a Nash equilibrium of the monetary policy game, US preferences dominate; the equilibrium is identical to one where the US alone chooses world monetary policy. Despite this, we find surprisingly that the US loses from the dollar's role as an international currency, since the absence of exchange rate pass-through leads to inefficient expenditure allocations within the US. Finally, we derive the conditions for a dollar standard to exist.     

Trade and the distribution of human capital

We develop a two-country, two-sector model of trade where the only difference between the two countries is their distribution of human capital endowments. We show that even if the two countries have identical aggregate human capital endowments the pattern of trade depends on the properties of the two human capital distributions. We also show that the two distributions of endowments also completely determine the effects of trade on income inequality. We also look at a simple majority voting model. It turns out autarky and free trade with and without compensation may be the voting outcome.     

Complementary or Exclusion： The on Volunteering in the Construction of Impact of Government Action Welfare Society System in China

一国（地区）居民所获得的社会福利服务是多种力量的总和,政府行动与志愿行动是其中两种典型的力量。近年来我国财政社会性支出水平的上升显示了政府力量的增强。本文基于2001—2007年的省级面板数据,采用SYS—GMM估计法,考察了政府力量的增强对民间志愿行动的影响。实证研究表明,财政社会性支出的比重提升1个百分点会使社区服务志愿参与率水平大约下降10％,显示政府行动在整体上排斥了民间志愿行动。为了推动我国普惠型福利社会体系的建设,政策层面应着力解除对民间志愿行动和志愿组织的束缚并创新政府的支持模式,以此实现政府行动与志愿行动的互补效应。     

国外实施技术性贸易壁垒的新动向及我国的应对措施

技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)作为一种无形的非关税壁垒,正日益成为国际贸易中最棘手、最难应付的贸易障碍之一,并正在对我国的出口贸易产生显著的影响。而技术标准作为发达国家实施TBT的重要手段之一,已成为当今国际经济竞争的制高点。技术标准不仅是保护国内市场的标志,而且是争夺国外市场、提高国家竞争力的有力手段,是国家利益和价值观念的载体。近年来,发达国家为了保护自身利益、限制他国发展,纷纷制定和实施标准化战略。本文首先分析了现阶段美国、日本和欧盟的主要技术标准壁垒及其标准化战略的新动向,在此基础上,从宏观和微观两个层面提出了我国应对国外技术标准壁垒的战略措施。