单位根,还是趋势间断?——基于中国宏观经济变量的实证研究

在内生单个趋势间断备择假设下,进出口量与真实利率拒绝了单位根的原假设;而在内生多个趋势间断备择假设下,包括通货膨胀率、进出口量、工业增加值与真实利率在内的主要宏观经济变量都拒绝了单位根的原假设。基于不同的备择假设,我们可能得到完全相背的平稳性推断结论。因此,深入考察各个变量自身的生成机制,无论是对于经济理论或实证研究,抑或政策评价,都具有重要的现实意义。     

Are international stock returns predictable?: An examination of linear and non-linear predictability using generalized spectral tests

This paper uses generalized spectral tests to examine whether international stock index returns are predictable using the history of the series. Unlike many other testing procedures, the generalized spectral tests used in this paper are robust to distributional assumptions, the presence of time-varying volatility, and allow for various forms of non-linear predictability. We find evidence of predictability in mean for over half of the international returns examined. In addition, we find most of the predictability to be non-linear in nature. The patterns of predictability are consistent with calendar effects and in some cases long-run dependence. Regardless of the implications of predictability of returns, this study is important because the generalized spectrum is defined for a range of different frequencies (corresponding to cycles of 2 days and greater), and we can therefore examine at what frequencies predictability occurs. This provides insight into whether there exists short-run, long-run, or both types of dependence.     

中国城镇居民消费实证分析

金融危机爆发以来,我国政府坚持采取扩大内需的方针,有效地拉动了经济增长。然而,居民消费需求能否实现持续增长则是这一问题的关键。通过建立消费假说及其模型,从消费函数角度对中国城镇居民消费与收入关系分析得出,目前城镇居民的消费行为符合持久收入假说,但消费者的消费行为并不完全是由当期收入水平决定,而是从他可以支配的和预期全部收入的角度来进行合理消费的。政府应做好以下工作来促进居民消费持续增长,即增加城镇居民收入,提高居民实际消费能力;加大对民生领域和社会事业支持保障力度,为城镇居民消费建立一个稳定的社会环境;积极推广消费信用制度,促进城镇居民消费档次的提高。     

论有效资本市场假说及其面临的挑战

长期以来,有效资本市场假说一直是许多金融理论的前提,但随着资本市场的发展与完善,人们越来越清楚地认识到有效资本市场假说存在很多的局限性。文章以有效资本市场假说的假设为出发点,从行为金融学和分形市场理论两方面对有效资本市场假说提出质疑,为研究资本市场提供一种新的思维和视觉。     

胡适的“假说主义”的方法论

本文由胡适的"假说主义"的方法论的起源和胡适的"假说主义"的方法论与波普尔假说主义方法的比较研究两部分构成。通过阐述,可以看到他是方法论上的假说主义者。     

The persistence of memory: an fMRI investigation of the brain processing of Surrealistic imagery in advertising

Surrealistic images sought to duplicate the mysterious workings of dreams by the juxtaposition of incongruous and seemingly unrelated objects. Although Surrealist images have been the subject of extensive critical reflection, no previous neuroimaging studies have investigated how the brain processes Surrealistic imagery in advertising. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, this study aimed at investigating the neural mechanisms associated with Surrealistic art techniques in advertising. The study employed a block design paradigm in which participants viewed five blocks of different real sets of advertisements arranged in four conditions: novel-congruent, repeated congruent, novel-Surrealistic and repeated Surrealistic. The results showed that, compared to other types of advertisements, Surrealistic imagery elicited greater activation in several brain areas including the parietal cortex (BA 1, 2, 3), the precuneus (Brodmann area (BA) 7), the lateral parietal cortex (BA 39/40), the prefrontal cortex (BA 6/9), the inferior frontal gyrus (BA 45/46), the anterior cingulate cortex (BA 24), the insula (BA 13) and the amygdala. This result suggests that, compared to other types of advertisements, Surrealistic advertisements are processed in different functional brain pathways. This finding lends strong support to the elaboration and surprise hypotheses, which postulate that incongruous stimuli elicit increased processing that leads to more distinct and robust memory traces.     

Stock Price Response to Earnings Announcements: Evidence From the Nigerian Stock Market

The author examines the stock market reaction to annual earnings information releases using data for a sample of firms on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Using the event study method, the author found that the magnitude of the cumulative abnormal returns is dominated by significant reactions 20 days before the earnings release date, which suggests that a portion of the market reaction may be due to private acquisition and, possibly, abuse of information by insiders. The persistent downward drift of the cumulative abnormal returns, 20 days after the announcement, is inconsistent with the efficient markets hypothesis.     

Regulators Markets And Standards Coordination: Policy Lessons From Telepoint

Using quarterly data for 56 new ethical-drug products launched between 1989 and 1996, we estimate the coefficients of a regression equation that has cumulative future sales beyond the forecast period as its dependent variable and third-quarter sales, post-launch product improvements and promotional activities, pre-launch product quality and speed to market, and market growth as the independent variables. We find the future success of a new product to be detectable as early as the third quarter after launch, and that while post-launch promotional activities can contribute to that success, if the product has not shown signs of life by the third quarter it is unlikely to do so afterwards. The implication is that being first to the market can contribute to the success of a new drug, as can having the highest-quality drug, though neither being first nor being best is necessary. Rather, a new drug can be both the first and the best in its product category, but if strong signs of success do not appear within nine months after launch, the drug is likely to be fighting a losing uphill battle thereafter, even in a growing market. Or, at least in pharmaceuticals, you get only one bite at the cherry.     

Examining the theory of capital structure: signal factor hypothesis

The aim of this study was to explore how various levels of information asymmetry affect the capital structure of listed companies in Taiwan and China. Regression results over the past few decades have indicated that the trade-off theory lacks explanatory power, bringing into question the accuracy of the static trade-off theory and the existence of an optimal capital structure. On the other hand, the financial decisions of companies do not always appear consistent with the pecking order theory. Building on the research of Chou et al. (2011), this study sought to verify the signal factor hypothesis, which combines the trade-off theory with the pecking order theory.

This study was the first one to employ the panel KPSS test with sharp drifts, developed by Chang and Ranjbar (2012), as well as the Fourier function to verify that an optimal capital structure does exist for companies with more symmetric information, thereby establishing the trade-off theory. Firms with information asymmetry show adverse selection costs, which supports the pecking order theory and rejects the existence of an optimal capital structure.     

Perceptions of farmers on health risks and risk reduction measures in wastewater‐irrigated urban vegetable farming in Ghana

This paper draws upon the social science literature to evaluate whether materialist/post‐materialist, environmental, and scientific/technological worldviews predict levels of support for biotechnology applications. The novelty of this research is two‐fold: 1) it incorporates the post‐materialist hypothesis in risk perception models, and 2) it evaluates the effects of the these three worldviews simultaneously. Data from a regional southwest telephone survey in the United States conducted in Spring 2004 were used to investigate whether these three worldviews were related to support of various animal and plant biotechnology applications. The results illustrated that post‐materialist values were not significantly related to support for animal or plant biotechnology applications. However, environmental and science and technology measures were related to support. One of the new ecological paradigm items, “humans have the right to modify nature,” was consistently related to support for animal and plant biotechnology applications, and anti‐anthropocentric values were related to support for two plant applications. General attitudes toward science and technology were related to support for both animal and plant biotechnology applications. The results provide evidence that perceptions of these applications are multi‐dimensional and that respondents conceptualize animal and plant biotechnology applications differently.