Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis

The present paper sheds further light on a well-known (alleged) violation of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHT): the frequent finding of unit roots in interest rate spreads. We show that the EHT implies (i) that the nonstationarity stems from the holding premium, which is hence (ii) cointegrated with the spread. In a stochastic discount factor framework, we model the premium as being driven by the integrated variance of excess returns. Introducing the concept of mean-variance cointegration, we actually find cointegration relations between the conditional first and second moment of US bond data.     

Macroeconomic Variables and the Housing Market in Turkey

After important policy changes in 1980, Turkey's trade expanded considerably. Although interindustry trade remained predominant, intraindustry trade (IIT) increased substantially. This paper investigates whether the increase in IIT contributed to reducing adjustment costs due to trade expansion. We undertook an econometric approach and considered three-digit International Standard Industry Classification classified data. We used a model developed by Brülhart and Thorpe (2000) for Malaysia, both in static and dynamic forms. Our static results indicate that, if there is any contribution that IIT makes to adjustments in the manufacturing industries of Turkey, it is either nonexistent, if measured by changes in the Grubel—Lloyd index, or in the opposite direction, if measured by the marginal IIT index (A). The dynamic results are somewhat more encouraging, in that the coefficients of the lagged A and Grubel—Lloyd indexes are negative and significant when three yearly changes are considered, but the overall results are not sufficient to conclude that the structural adjustment hypothesis holds for Turkey.     

论技术创新的最优市场结构 ——关于熊彼特猜想的研究

当技术创新的市场收益率随着参与技术创新企业数量的增加而最终递减时,存在一个可以导致技术创新企业创新收益最大化的最优市场结构即最优技术创新企业的数量。如果企业技术创新存在边际收益递减现象,则存在一个导致技术创新投入最大化的最优市场结构,这一最优市场结构将因技术创新风险的提高而降低。技术创新收益最大化的市场结构与技术创新投入最大化的市场结构之间构成了能够有效促进技术创新的最优市场结构区间。     

Samuelson and Davidson on ergodicity: A reformulation

The concept of ergodicity in economics seems to have the qualities of a shibboleth—a word or saying used by adherents of a party, sect, or belief, and usually regarded by others as empty of real meaning. It is in use by both neoclassical economics—after Samuelson (1965 Samuelson, P. A. “Proof That Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly.” Industrial Management Review, 1965, 6 (2), 41–49.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], p. 43), who used the term in his paper on what later became a foundation of the efficient market hypothesis—and post Keynesian economics—after Davidson, who picked up the term in order to highlight methodological differences. Considering the origin of the concept in statistical physics and its use in the topology of dynamical systems, which most economists are not conversant with, the importance ascribed to ergodicity in economic debate seems mystifying. We deconstruct the meaning of the term in the major contributions of Samuelson and Davidson. We suggest an alternative to (non)ergodicity to discuss the nature of randomness in the real world. While neoclassical theory assumes stochastic randomness, post Keynesians assume nonstochastic randomness, a term developed by the mathematician Kolmogorov (1986 Kolmogorov, A.N. “On the Logical Foundations of Probability Theory.” In K. Ito, and J.V. Prokhorov (eds.), Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Moscow, 1986, pp. 467–471. [Google Scholar], p. 467). We argue that even in an ergodic world there is a problem with the idea that stochastic randomness can be dealt with by the financial system.     

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: some evidence from Asian countries

This article outlines a panel data approach to modelling the term structure of interest rates in the short and in the long run. We find robust evidence supporting the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHTS) for a small sample of Asian emerging markets. Furthermore, we detect some relevant differences in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and the existence of a McCallum (2005) rule (no exogeneity of monetary policy to the yield curve) in some countries. Finally, we document the influence of an international global factor (i.e. a time-varying global risk premium) on the yield curve, while local country-specific factors are not statistically significant.     

Can you do the wrong thing and still be right? Hypothesis testing in I(2) and near-I(2) cointegrated VARs

In this paper, we investigate the small-sample performance of LR tests on long-run coefficients in the I(2) model; we focus on a comparison between I(2) and near-I(2) data, i.e. I(1) data with a second root very close to unity, and report the results of some Monte Carlo experiments. With near-I(2) data, the finite-sample properties of the tests are (i) similar to those found with genuine I(2) data, (ii) systematically superior to those of the analogous tests constructed in the I(1) model, even if the latter is, in principle, correctly specified and the former is not. Therefore, there seems to be strong support to the idea that, in practice, modelling near-I(2) data using the I(2) model may be a good idea, despite the inherent misspecification.     

Does the unemployment invariance hypothesis hold for Romania?

This article questions whether the unemployment invariance hypothesis of Layard et al. (2005), which states that movements in labour force do not significantly affect unemployment rates, holds true for Romania. Using quarterly labour force data for the 1996–2012 period, we explore the time-series properties of the two variables. We find that unemployment rates and participation rates have unit roots, and that they are not cointegrated, meaning that no significant long-term relationship exists between them. The analysis carried out on the first differences of unemployment rates and participation rates shows discouraged and added worker effects for Romania’s female labour force. This conclusion diverges from findings that point out to a stable, long-term relationship between unemployment and participation in several developed countries (Japan, Sweden, USA) and shows that Romanian labour market is highly adaptive, where changes in labour force participation do not lead to increases in unemployment. This finding can help model the influence of adverse developments such as ageing and emigration, and show their true impact beyond demographic doom scenarios. It also points out the role played by labour demand in shaping the evolution of the Romanian labour market.     

Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review

Over 10 years have passed since the first paper on the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) was published in 2002. Since then, a wave of studies has appeared trying to understand the temporal relationship between tourism and economic growth. Hence, it is possible to provide an assessment in terms of econometric methods used and main empirical findings achieved so far. This paper presents an exhaustive review of approximately 100 peer-reviewed published papers on the TLGH. An overview on the economic theoretical framework behind the TLGH is also provided. Notably, the results present an increasing diversification in the econometric modelling used. With a few exceptions, the empirical findings suggest that overall international tourism drives economic growth.     

Price taking equilibrium in economies with multiple memberships in clubs and unbounded club sizes

We model an economy with clubs (or jurisdictions) where individuals may belong to multiple clubs and where clubs sizes are arbitrary—clubs may be restricted to consist of only one or two persons, or as large as the entire economy, or anything in-between. Notions of price-taking equilibrium and the core, both with communication costs, are introduced. These notions take into account that there is a small communication cost of deviating from a given outcome. We demonstrate that, given communication costs, for all sufficiently large economies the core is nonempty and the set of price-taking equilibrium outcomes is equivalent to the core.     

Reexamining the permanent income hypothesis with uncertainty in permanent and transitory innovation states

In this paper, we reexamine the permanent income–consumption relationship analytically and empirically, based on the innovation regime-switching (IRS) model developed in [Kuan, C.M., Huang, Y.L., Tsay, R.S., 2005. An unobserved component model with switching permanent and transitory innovations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 23, 443–454]. A novel feature of the IRS model is that it explicitly allows for uncertainty in innovation states. When the labor income follows an IRS process, it is shown that the agent’s perception on the likelihoods of income innovations being permanent and transitory plays a crucial role in determining the optimal forecasts on the change of consumption. The effect of a current labor income innovation on consumption is a weighted average of two distinct effects resulting from permanent and transitory innovations with the weights equal to the perceived likelihoods of the respective states. Also, past innovations may affect consumption when there are revisions in the perceived likelihoods of previous states. Our empirical study on US data shows that consumption indeed reacts significantly to the perceived likelihoods of innovation states. However, even after controlling for the effect of state uncertainty, we find consumption vastly underreacts to permanent innovations in labor income but reacts about the right magnitude to transitory ones when compared with the prediction of the permanent income hypothesis. This evidence is similar to [Elwood, S.K., 1998. Testing for excess sensitivity in consumption: A state-space unobserved components approach. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 30, 64–82] but in sharp contrast with that found in [Hall, R.E., Mishkin, F.S., 1982. The sensitivity of consumption to transitory income: Estimates from panel data on households. Econometrica, 50, 461–480].