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81.
We consider whether oil prices can account for business cycle asymmetries. We test for asymmetries based on the Markov switching
autoregressive model popularized by Hamilton (1989), using the tests devised by Clements and Krolzig (2000). We find evidence
against the conventional wisdom that recessions are more violent than expansions: while some part of the downturn in economic
activity that characterises recessionary periods can be attributed to dramatic changes in the price of oil, post-War US economic
growth is characterized by the steepness of expansions.
First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: September 2001 相似文献
82.
This paper employs duration analysis to investigate the timing of default in the UK mortgage market. Our analysis is performed on an ex ante basis, in that our explanatory variables are available to mortgage lenders when the loan is first made. We estimate both standard Weibull distributions and generalizations of the Weibull that permit non-monotonic hazard functions. The models fit the data well, suggesting that we have captured the major sources of variation in duration. We find that ‘cash flow’ variables, such as salary and interest rate paid, play the largest role. Surprisingly, loan-to-value ratios are either insignificant or influence default times in a counter-intuitive direction. 相似文献
83.
Robert D. Rowe Carolyn M. Lang Lauraine G. Chestnut 《Resource and Energy Economics》1996,18(4):363-394
The New York State Environmental Externalities Cost Study and computerized externality model (EXMOD) are used to examine the specification of methods design and application factors in the computation of electricity externalities. We report the sensitivity of externality estimates with alternative specifications for 15 different factors in the analysis, including the selection of facility type, site, and operating characteristics; air emission assumptions and air modeling procedures; dose-response assumptions; economic valuation assumptions; and other modeling procedures and assumptions. Many of the factors that most influence externality computations can be well specified in the analysis, such as the facility type, age, characteristics, emission rates, whether there is SO2 trading, and the inclusion of long range impacts. Most significant among the factors for which there remains significant scientific uncertainty are the selection and application of air dispersion models, selection of air pollution thresholds for health impacts, reduced life span risks associated with ozone exposure and with long-term exposure to PM10, values for CO2 damages, and the value to be applied to increased risks of reduced life span for individuals age 65 or older. 相似文献
84.
Summary. For Bertrand duopoly with linear costs, we establish via a single (counter-)example that: (i) A new monotone transformation
of the firms' profit functions may lead to the supermodularity of transformed profits when the standard log and identity transformations
both fail to do so, and (ii) Topkis's notion of critical sufficient condition for monotonicity of a Bertrand firm's best-reply
correspondence cannot be extended to rely only on positive unit costs.
Received: January 16, 2001; revised version: March 20, 2002
RID="*"
ID="*" This work was completed while the first author was visiting the Institute for Industrial Economics at the University
of Copenhagen during Spring 2000. Their financial support and stimulating research environment are gratefully acknowledged.
The views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the European Commission.
Correspondence to: R. Amir 相似文献
85.
Summary. We prove existence of a competitive equilibrium in a version of a Ramsey (one sector) model in which agents are heterogeneous
and gross investment is constrained to be non negative. We do so by converting the infinite-dimensional fixed point problem
stated in terms of prices and commodities into a finite-dimensional Negishi problem involving individual weights in a social
value function. This method allows us to obtain detailed results concerning the properties of competitive equilibria. Because
of the simplicity of the techniques utilized our approach is amenable to be adapted by practitioners in analogous problems
often studied in macroeconomics.
Received: September 13, 2001; revised version: December 9, 2002
RID="*"
ID="*" We are grateful to Tapan Mitra for pointing out errors as well as making very valuable suggestions. Thanks are due
to Raouf Boucekkine and Jorge Duran for additional helpful discussions. We also thank an anonymous referee for his/her helpful
comments. The second author acknowledges the financial support of the Belgian Ministry of Scientific Research (Grant ARC 99/04-235
“Growth and incentive design”) and of the Belgian Federal Goverment (Grant PAI P5/10, “Equilibrium theory and optimization
for public policy and industry regulation”).
Correspondence to: C. Le Van 相似文献
86.
The Borda rule,Condorcet consistency and Condorcet stability 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Summary. The Borda rule is known to be the least vulnerable scoring rule to Condorcet inconsistency, Saari (2000). Such inconsistency
occurs when the Condorcet winner (the alternative which is preferred to any other alternative by a simple majority) is not
selected by the Borda rule. This note exposes the relationship between the Borda rule and the Condorcet q-majority principle as well as the Condorcet q-majority voting rule. The main result establishes that the Borda rule is Condorcet q-majority consistent when where k is the number of alternatives. The second result establishes that is the minimal degree of majority decisiveness corresponding to the Borda rule under sincere voting. The same majority is
required to ensure decisiveness under the Borda rule and to ensure that a q-rule (the generalized q-majority Condorcet rule) is a voting rule.
Received: April 8, 2002; revised version: July 17, 2002
Correspondence to:S. Nitzan 相似文献
87.
Tetsuo Ono 《Economic Theory》2003,22(1):141-168
Summary. The purpose of this paper is to consider environmental taxation which would control emissions of firms in a model of growth
cycles. In the model presented below, the economy may experience two phases of growth and environmental quality: “the no-innovation
growth regime” and “the innovation-led growth regime”. Aggregate capital and environmental quality remain constant in the
no-innovation growth regime, while they perpetually increase in the innovation-led growth regime. The paper shows that the
tax plays a key role in determining whether the economy stably converges to one of the two regimes or fluctuates permanently
between them. It also shows that there is a critical level of the tax and that the economy obtains higher growth rates of
capital and environmental quality by raising (or reducing) the tax if the initial tax is below (or above) the critical level.
Received: April 2, 2001; revised version: March 21, 2002
RID="*"
ID="*" This research reported here was conducted within the research project “Project on Intergenerational Equity” at Institute
of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. I am deeply grateful to an anonymous referee for his or her insightful comments,
which greatly improved the paper. I also thank Hiroshi Honda, Yasuo Maeda, Yuji Nakayama, and participants in workshops at
Hitotsubashi University, Kyoto University, Nagoya University, Osaka University, University of Tsukuba, Yokohama National University,
and University of Tokyo for their valuable comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors are mine. 相似文献
88.
Herbert Dawid 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》1996,6(4):361-373
We analyze the learning behaviour of a Simple Genetic Algorithm in an overlapping generations model with one consumption
good and fiat money. It is shown by simulations, that in cases where periodic equilibria exist the equilibrium of period two
is learned by a Genetic Algorithm and not the monetary steady state. We further show that proper coding leads to convergence
of the GA towards the sunspot equilibrium. If individuals who believe in the impact of sunspots are brought together with
individuals who ignore the sunspots, the sunspot believes will in most cases drive the other individuals out of the population. 相似文献
89.
物资管理可视化系统的研究 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
通过仓库物资管理综合信息平台设计,介绍了物资管理可视系统结构,功能和仓库基本业务信息平台结构框架模型。 相似文献
90.
Harley B. Messinger 《Socio》1977,11(6):323-330
Dimensional analysis has been defined variously as the synthesis of dimensionless variables and as a way of spatially representing data. While in sociometrics, one may not be able to devise models resembling those of the physical sciences because of the complexity of many social situations, one may in some cases successfully apply the techniques of classic dimensional analysis and get empirically valid results. More often we derive with analytic methods from the social sciences different kinds of dimensional frameworks in which to represent data. This paper will compare these approaches to the study of relationships and give examples of where each might be appropriate. Finally, a classification of the analytical methods will be presented. 相似文献