Book Reviews

Book Reviewed:
Zoltan Bara and Laszlo Csaba, (eds.) Small Economies' Adjustment to Global Tendencies
Lutz Hoffmann, Peter Bofinger, Heiner Flassbeck and Alfred Steinherr Kazakhstan 1993-2000: Independent Advisors and the IMF
Michael Du Pont Foreign Direct Investment in Transitional Economies. A Case Study of China and Poland     

国内学界对入世后中国外贸的研究述评

外贸在改革开放后的中国经济研究上占有非常重要的地位。入世后国内学界对中国外贸研究取得了长足进步,本文对此进行了分类和述评,并在此基础上提出了应加强对宏观经济管理与政策调控的研究,和对微观企业外销的调查研究,研究领域的均衡,注重定量分析与定性分析的结合等,以不断深化研究。     

Romania’s accession to the EU: Short-term welfare effects on food consumers

This paper focuses on estimation of the welfare effects on different Romanian households of assumed food price changes as a result of EU accession. Using the Slutsky compensating variation approach, results suggest that these changes affect welfare differently for various categories of households. Although on average the welfare loss is 2.6%, a higher impact is estimated for low-income groups. However, the relatively high share of home-produced consumption of food diminishes these impacts, in particular for rural households, and somewhat smaller monetary amounts would be required if compensation is paid.     

入世过渡期内中国铁路运输企业竞争力的提高

在入世过渡期内提高铁路运输企业竞争力,对于中国铁路在经济全球化、货运物流化的新一轮货物运输市场竞争中的发展具有重要意义。通过分析中国铁路运输企业竞争力现状以及入世过渡期内的发展环境,提出扩大资金来源、加强人才培养、增强运输组织能力、充分利用入世和西部大开发等发展环境等途径,提高铁路运输企业的竞争力。     

中国入世对国际经济影响的量化分析

中国工业品出口引起的竞争加剧会不会导致东南亚国家非工业化 ,使它们回到作为初级产品出口国的地位 ?或者 ,制造业产业链中是否存在东南亚国家可以专业化的有利空间 ?通过G Cubed亚太模型的模拟表明 ,中国大量劳动力全面进入国际劳动分工只有在满足以下两个条件的情况下才会导致东南亚国家的非工业化 :流向东南亚国家的国外直接投资大量地转向中国 ,并且东南亚国家放任FDI流入的下降从而降低由此带来的技术扩散。如果东南亚国家能够通过其它方式很快吸收国外新技术及提高本土技术创新能力阻止技术下降 ,那么它们就能在国际制造业产业链中找到有利空间。本文的政策含义是 :东南亚国家要通过向它们的科学家和管理者加速扩散新知识以及为那些下岗工人提供合适的再培训 ,从而将人力资本的深化与广化作为首要考虑的目标。     

EU accession and foreign-owned firms in Bulgaria

Bulgaria signed the European Union accession treaty in 2005. Accession caused an increase in the volume of inward foreign direct investment flows (IFDI). We analyse World Bank BEEPS firm-level data for 2007 to understand the characteristics and performance of foreign firms in Bulgaria. Regression analysis reveals that foreign firms are larger, have lower capital-to-labour ratios, are more likely to export and are more likely to locate in Sofia. However, foreign firms have had limited success in Bulgaria. They do not exhibit higher sales growth and, in manufacturing, carried out lower capital investment in machinery than domestic firms. The numbers of visits from tax officials is the same for domestic and foreign firms in manufacturing, and lower for foreign firms in the service sector. However, firms with higher exports-to-sales ratios and higher absolute sales were subjected to a higher number of visits from tax officials. These findings suggest that a range of institutional challenges remain for foreign firms in Bulgaria.     

“入世”后县域农业经济的发展与应对策略

我国加入WTO在即,对外开放市场、大幅度降低关税等一系列承诺的实现,必然会对我国农业和农村经济造成严重而又深刻的影响,在此背景下,本文认为,我国农业发展观必须由传统农业观向现代农业观转变;农业发展战略必须从过去的以追求数量为主的“增产”战略尽快向以追求质量和效益为主的”增收“战略转移,为此,本文提出县域农业发展迎接”入世“挑战的七项应对策略。     

加入WTO后我国工业结构的变动趋势及政策研究

加入WTO后工业品进出口变化、外商直接投资变化、以及经济体制环境和资源配置格局的变化 ,总体上说将促进我国技术密集型产业的发展和工业结构的升级 ,但在不同的阶段将表现出不同的趋势和特点。在加入WTO后的过渡期期间 ( 2 0 0 5年之前 ) ,工业结构升级的进程将继续推进 ;在 2 0 0 5～ 2 0 1 0年期间 ,工业结构升级的进程将相对缓慢 ;到 2 0 1 0～ 2 0 2 0年期间 ,工业结构升级的进程将进一步加快。我国工业结构政策的主线依然是加快工业结构的调整升级 ,重点是促进包括高新技术产业在内的技术密集型产业的发展。要积极推进产业比较优势的转换 ,促进产业竞争优势的增强     

A Small Macroeconomic Model of the EU-Accession Countries

This paper develops a small macro-economic model of the CEECs to analyze various aspects of integration with the current EU and the role of monetary and exchange rate strategies during the (pre-) accession phase. The model gives insight into both the adjustment of the internal balance (as for output and employment) and the external balance (as for exports and competitiveness) in the accession countries. The model provides more insight into the basic macroeconomic relationships governing macroeconomic adjustment in the accession countries and also the role of the integration with the EU in that adjustment. We perform empirical simulations of different scenarios and analyze the resulting macroeconomic adjustment. In particular, we compare how a macroeconomic shock in the current EU is transmitted to the accession countries under flexible and fixed euro exchange rates, respectively.