State‐contingent analysis of farmers’ response to weather variability: irrigated dairy farming in the Murray Valley,Australia

The agricultural sector is commonly regarded as one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Current understanding of the impact of climate change on this sector relies on the underlying assumptions about farmers’ possible responses to weather variability, including changes in crop choice, input combinations and land management practices. Many previous analyses rely on the implicit (and restrictive) assumption that farmers operate under a fixed technology set across different states of nature. This assumption, represented through stochastic production or profit functions, is commonly made but seldom tested and may understate farmers’ responses to climate change if state‐contingent production technologies are, in reality, more flexible. The potential for farmers to adapt production technologies in response to unforeseen events is at the core of the state‐contingent approach. Advanced in Chambers and Quiggin (2000), the theory contends that producers can manage uncertainty through the allocation of productive inputs to different states of nature. In this article, we test the assumption that farmers’ observed behaviour is consistent with the state‐contingent production theory using farm‐level data from Australia. More precisely, we estimate the milk production technology for a sample of irrigated dairy farms from the southern Murray–Darling Basin over the period from 2006–2007 to 2009–2010.     

考虑声誉效应的科技服务业与制造企业合作创新行为策略分析

采用博弈论的方法,考虑声誉效应对博弈双方效用、策略的影响,建立信号博弈模型,并分析精炼贝叶斯均衡,证明声誉水平、对声誉的态度以及技术市场价值的高低是影响建立合作关系的重要因素。探讨双方建立合作关系的行为策略,提出实现合作达成双赢的建议。     

基于免疫机理的黑龙江省耕地系统安全预警研究

研究目的:科学识别黑龙江省耕地系统安全警情现状及其未来发展趋势。研究方法:改进突变级数模型和Elman神经网络模型。研究结果:(1)构建基于生物免疫机理的耕地系统安全警情评定指标体系,得出黑龙江省警情1995—2014年整体呈波动上升趋势,警度从"无警"上升至"轻警",再至"中警",说明基于改进突变级数模型的评价结果可凸显评价对象之"优、劣"特征;(2)引入Elman神经网络构建耕地系统安全警情预测模型,测试拟合精度在0.97以上,预测结果可靠,表明未来20年黑龙江省警情将整体呈先升高、后降低趋势,警度在"轻警"与"中警"之间。研究结论:基于生物免疫机理的黑龙江省耕地系统安全预警研究,可为省域尺度下耕地系统安全预警提供一种新的思路。     

众包模式在中国家具制造企业的应用探索——基于英国MADE的案例解析

首先,对英国MADE的商业模式进行解析,MADE本质上是一种双重网络众包,MADE扮演了中介机构和发包方的双重角色。其次,将MADE商业模式与中国家具制造企业的运作模式进行对比,MADE的优越性主要体现在精准把握、呈现消费需求,较强的资源整合能力和创新效率,弱化品牌对产品溢价的影响,取消中间环节;局限性体现在目标顾客群体的限制和较长的等待周期。借鉴MADE模式,中国家具制造企业可以尝试有效运用大众智慧来提升企业创新能力,重新定义企业的竞争优势。众包模式在中国有广阔的发展前景,同时给中国的家具制造企业带来严峻的挑战。中国家具制造企业应理性对待众包的出现,可以将改良型的众包作为商业体系的有益补充。中小家具制造企业可以尝试用威客形式提高企业创新能力;大型家具制造企业可以借助网络平台进行初级、中级、高级阶段的改良型众包尝试。     

The impact of an aircraft's service environment on perceptions of in-flight food quality

Airlines are currently striving to improve the quality and quantity of in-flight food, because research has shown that catering is a key attribute for a customer's satisfaction with airline service quality. But the role of an airline's service environment in forming customer perceptions about food quality has not yet been properly investigated. Using electronic word-of-mouth data from N = 3996 airline passengers, this study deploys a linear regression model at multiple levels to relate perceived in-flight food quality with both the overall service environment and its formative components. The results clearly unveil the importance of an aircraft's service environment on perceived in-flight catering quality; perceptions of food quality are primarily influenced by the quality of cabin staff service, followed by entertainment and seat quality. Instead of continuing with the current practice of signing up top chefs to improve menus, airlines may instead consider putting their management focus on service improvements.     

我国服务业发展水平评价及对其出口竞争力影响研究

在构建"产业发展水平评价"理论模型的基础上,本文从产业的竞争能力、创新能力和载体支撑能力"三力"视角设计了我国服务业发展水平的评价指标体系,实证我国服务业整体发展水平和"三力"的非均衡程度。借助"出口技术含量指数"计量我国服务贸易出口竞争力。之后,分别从整体和"三力"及部门视角实证检验两者关系。研究显示:(1)我国服务业发展水平、服务贸易出口竞争力均呈现逐年提升的发展趋势,但近年来增长幅度有所下降;(2)整体而言,我国服务业发展与服务贸易出口竞争力提升存在长期的均衡关系,前者是后者的格兰杰原因;(3)服务业"三力"中的"创新能力"对其出口竞争力的贡献度最小,这与我国服务业创新能力不强且科技成果转化成生产力效率不佳有关;不同的服务部门对服务贸易出口竞争力的影响程度存在着差异性,现代服务业相对传统服务业对服务贸易出口竞争力的作用更为明显。文章最后根据研究结论提出促进我国服务业发展和提升服务贸易出口竞争力的对策。     

Assessing the Impact of Changing Economic Environment on Productivity Growth: The Case of the Spanish Dairy Processing Industry

This article analyzes the productivity growth of the Spanish dairy processing industry from 1996 till 2011, which concerns the period of increased EU regulation regarding food safety as well as economic crisis. Data envelopment analysis is used to compute the Malmquist index and its components. The results suggest that productivity on average declined during the period under investigation. The decomposition of the Malmquist index finds that technical regress contributed to productivity decline despite improvements in technical and scale efficiencies. Our results also suggest that food safety regulations did not have a negative impact on productivity growth. Technical change and scale efficiency change made significant negative contributions to productivity growth in the period under crisis, whereas firms significantly improved their technical efficiency in that period.     

Host-site institutions,regional production linkages and technological upgrading: a study of automotive firms in vietnam

Using technological capabilities as embodied in machinery, organization, processes and products, this study examines the links with host-site institutions and regional production linkages. The statistical results show no relationship between these variables. In-depth interviews complement the quantitative findings. Overall, the result shows that the government’s localization efforts failed because too many joint-venture assemblers were approved in the 1990s when the domestic market was small. The lack of economies of scale also affected the growth of national suppliers. Hence, national producers are confined to low value added segments and lack the quality to compete in export markets.     

基于BP人工神经网络中国光伏产业贸易摩擦预警研究

建立有效的贸易摩擦预警系统有利于中国新兴产业的健康发展,有利于中国实施制造强国战略。将警兆信号法与人工神经网络相结合,从宏观经济形势、产业供给能力、双边贸易状况、市场需求水平等四个维度切入,构建了中国光伏产品出口贸易摩擦预警系统模型。预警分析表明,模型的预警效果与现实拟合较好,具有可行性。从模型的预警结果来看,2019年~2020年中国输美光伏产品贸易摩擦警情均低于轻警级别,仍面临一定的贸易摩擦风险。     

黑龙江省装备制造业服务化转型策略研究

伴随市场环境不断变化,装备制造业服务化转型已成为提升其核心竞争力的必然选择,本文基于黑龙江省装备制造业发展现状展开研究,从产业集群低、自主创新能力差、商业模式单一等方面系统分析制约黑龙江省装备制造业服务化转型的主要因素,在此基础上针对性的提出加快黑龙江省装备制造业服务化转型的策略建议。本文的研究成果可为黑龙江省装备制造业的服务化转型及产业发展提供一定的理论指导。