Multi-population mortality models: fitting,forecasting and comparisons

We review a number of multi-population mortality models: variations of the Li & Lee model, and the common-age-effect (CAE) model of Kleinow. Model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood. Although this introduces some challenging identifiability problems and complicates the estimation process it allows a fair comparison of the different models. We propose to solve these identifiability problems by applying two-dimensional constraints over the parameters. Using data from six countries, we compare and rank, both visually and numerically, the models’ fitting qualities and develop forecasting models that produce non-diverging, joint mortality rate scenarios. It is found that the CAE model fits best. But we also find that the Li and Lee model potentially suffers from robustness problems when calibrated using maximum likelihood.     

人口老龄化进程中养老保障的消费增进效应——基于CHARLS数据的研究

利用2013年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据中的8355个家庭数据,在控制家庭人口特征和家庭经济能力的情况下,分别从家庭消费水平和家庭消费结构两方面考察人口老龄化进程中养老保障对家庭消费的影响。结果显示:养老负担会使家庭人均消费支出明显下降,但是医疗保健方面的消费支出占比会显著提高;参加养老保障会显著提高家庭的人均消费支出,尤其是无养老负担家庭会减少对未来养老的预防性储蓄而增加当期消费,养老保障的消费增进效应明显,但是有养老保障家庭的各项消费支出占比则没有显著的提高或下降。这充分说明养老负担是家庭消费水平难以提高的重要因素,而养老保障是刺激人口老龄化进程中消费增长的有力手段。     

Age dependency and labour productivity divergence

This study finds strong empirical evidence in favour of the hypothesis that the age composition of population matters for labour productivity growth. We applied the fixed effects panel model using data on a large number of countries over the period 1980–2010. Our results suggest that higher age dependency not only directly impacts negatively on labour productivity but also modifies the impact of other determinants of labour productivity. Child dependency has a more adverse effect on labour productivity than old age dependency. We specifically find that the marginal effects of gross capital formation, information and communication improvement, and labour market reforms are significant at lower levels of age dependency. However, the marginal effect of savings on labour productivity is high at a high level of age dependency. The impact of age dependency varies between developed and developing economies. Diversity in the size and nature of age dependency across regions and different income groups help to explain the labour productivity differential across them.     

Are new states more corrupt? Expert opinions versus firms’ experiences

We find that new states are perceived to be more corrupt even though businesses do not report more bribery in newer states. This is suggestive of an unearned, and likely high, reputational cost to being a new state. These findings hold over a number of specifications that include additional economic, historical and geographic controls.     

新型农村养老保障制度改革——北京模式的探索意义及其适用条件

本文以北京模式为案例,探讨了新型农村养老保障体制改革的主要特征和改革方向。北京模式明确提出政府提供基本养老保障的职责,推动建立人人共有的基本养老保障制度,使其具有研究价值和经验借鉴意义。当然,北京市的社会经济发展水平和财政能力,使其推广上应注意适用条件,特别是针对人口老龄化水平高的中西部劳动力输出大省,以及财政能力薄弱的省份,单纯依靠地方财政将面临巨大的财政压力。在分税制的情况下,需要在制定合理的财政补贴标准基础上,科学地划分中央财政和地方财政的支持比例,才能确保财政的可持续性,建立全国统一的新型农村养老保障体系。     

关于新时期少数民族地区文化建设的思考

新时期加强文化建设既是少数民族地区全面建设小康社会必不可少的内容,又是坚持科学发展观的客观要求.为此,少数民族地区要加强文化基础建设,强化先进的思想观念,培养文化人才,开展独具特色的传统文化活动,保护和利用优秀的民族文化资源.     

Young consumers in the digital era: The selfie effect

This article investigates a mechanism named the selfie effect. By their frequent sharing of selfies on social media, perhaps displaying their cool new fashions or newly acquired tattoos, young people—unintentionally—help providers to promote their products and services, and thereby contribute to the commercial pressure. The existence of a selfie effect builds on hypotheses originating from a pilot interview study concerning how young adults master the consumer role. In this article, the existence of a selfie effect is investigated in a nationally representative web survey with 1,707 respondents aged 16–60, living in Norway. While 59% of the teenagers said they were posting selfies weekly or more often, only 2% among those in their fifties did. The multivariate quantitative analyses support the idea that teenagers and young adults, frequently online, become vulnerable in the consumer role. Particularly posting selfies and following bloggers increase consumer detriment and overconsumption.     

The effect of a wife’s retirement on her husband’s mental health

This article examines the effect of wives’ retirement on their husband’s mental health in Australia. By exploiting the exogenous variations in women’s retirement induced by the age pension qualifying ages, we find that spousal retirement status has a positive impact on the mental health of older men. This beneficial impact is found to strengthen with wives’ time spent in retirement. We show that wife’s retirement affects the constituents of her husband’s mental well-being in different ways. We also have identified four channels for the positive linkage between older women’s retirement and the mental health of their spouse.     

Gender difference in the impact of retirement on cognitive abilities: Evidence from urban China

This paper examines the impact of retirement on cognitive functioning by gender in urban China and investigates the underlying mechanisms. Based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, the paper uses the mandatory retirement ages and different policy enforcement between the public and private sectors as instruments for retirement status. The analysis finds substantial gender heterogeneity in the effect of retirement on cognition, with a positive and significant effect for males, but a negative and less significant effect for females. The beneficial effects on cognition are stronger for male blue-collar workers, who are likely to pursue a more active lifestyle at retirement. Further investigation shows that the results are partly driven by differential behavioral changes at retirement, and the gender difference in retirement ages may also play a potential role.     

Does Age Exacerbate the Gender-Wage Gap? New Method and Evidence From Germany, 1984–2014

ABSTRACT

Given theoretical premises, the gender-wage gap adjusted for individual characteristics is likely to vary according to age. This study adapts John DiNardo, Nicole M. Fortin, and Thomas Lemieux's (1996) semi-parametric technique to disentangle year, cohort, and age effects in adjusted gender-wage gaps. The study relies on a long panel of data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) covering 1984–2015. The results indicate that, in Germany, the gender-wage gap increases over a birth cohort's lifetime, including in the post-reproductive age for some birth cohorts. The results suggest that age and gender are overlapping handicaps in the labor market and call for a policy intervention.