后金融危机时代股票超额收益率影响因素的探索

运用判别分析法和决策树模型对上证180的成分股是否可以获得超额收益率及其影响因素进行了分析,并将两种方法的分析结果进行了对比。结果表明：两种方法都可以对上市公司是否可以获得超额收益进行分辨,并且可以找出影响因素。但是从两种模型的结果来看,决策树模型要明显优于判别分析法。从我们的分析样本来看,对企业是否可以获得超额收益率的影响因素主要有：市盈率、市净率、息税折旧摊销前利润/营业总收入等。在实际中,通过这两种方法,投资者可以寻找出那些具有超额收益率的股票进行投资,从而使得自身的投资结果优于大盘。     

Public and private healthcare services: What drives the choice?

This paper has explored patients' propensity to consume private healthcare services. We based our analysis on the typical tangible and intangible (for instance, responsiveness, reliability, assurance and staff empathy) domains of the SERVQUAL and SERVPERF methods. These variables may influence patients' decision-making when they choose between the public and private sectors. We combined factor analysis (to obtain a set of latent factors related to perceived quality) and a partial proportional ordered logit model to estimate the probability that a patient would access private healthcare services. To test the main hypotheses, we used data from a stratified sample in Sardinia, a peripheral region of Italy. Findings revealed that private and public healthcare are substitutes, especially for primary/specialised services. Patients who used public healthcare frequently and had a low income were unlikely to change to private healthcare or to recommend private services. ‘Responsiveness’ and perceptions on ‘tangibles’ were key in determining the probability that a patient would choose and recommend private services. This paper offers a multifaceted framework that can be used in future research to generalise these findings, especially in insular regions that are constrained by mobility.     

东莞市环境经济系统的能值分析

以能值理论与方法为基础,采用不同的能值指标和系统可持续性的综合性指标对东莞市的环境及经济发展状况进行分析,并与其他国家和地区相应指标进行比较,评价东莞市城市生态系统自然环境和社会经济可持续发展的状况。结果表明,东莞市全年利用总能值比较丰富,但经济发展程度与发达国家和地区相比还有一定差距,经济发展主要依赖外界的支持;东莞市自身环境资源相对匮乏,环境压力较大,远远超过了系统的环境承载力,东莞市可持续发展水平较低。结合东莞市实际,从能值分析角度提出其实施可持续发展的对策建议。     

旅游目的地网络营销系统与旅游产业发展耦合分析

为研究各省区市的旅游目的地网络营销系统与旅游产业发展水平的耦合关系,采用SPSS17.0统计软件,利用多指标综合评价的主成分分析法(PCA),对我国大陆31个省区市的旅游产业发展水平进行综合定量评价;然后,运用多层次分析法,结合问卷调查数据,对大陆各省区市旅游目的地网络营销系统进行定量评价,得出各省区市旅游目的地网络营销系统综合评价值;最后,对旅游目的地网络营销系统与旅游产业发展进行耦合分析,达到帮助旅游目的地制定正确的旅游网络营销及产业发展政策的目的。     

Connecting ‘talent’ meanings and multi-level context: a discursive approach

Abstract

Through an in-depth, multilevel case study of a professional services firm, this paper illuminates what stakeholders mean when they use the term ‘talent’. The paper underlines how various contextual factors including, workforce composition, ownership structures and individual perceptions influence talent meanings within an organisation. Our analysis of talent phenomena at a multiplicity of levels illustrates that it is not only about the words, phrases, and terms employed when talking about talent that requires examination. There is a need to deliberate on the meanings that underpin the talk because while stakeholders may talk the same way they may mean different things. The paper makes a key theoretical contribution through specific recognition of the importance of thoughtful reflection of how stakeholders discursively construct meanings because ‘talent’ is a concept, which requires translation via talk to become meaningful within the material world and these meanings are influenced by context. Thus, we cannot infer, that talent meanings radiate within organisations, nor across organisational boundaries, industries or countries because discourses arise and materialise within specific contexts and we must acknowledge that talent discourses can not be removed from the context in which they operate.     

1990年以来江苏省区域经济差异时空格局演化及其成因分析

以1990—2007年江苏省县域人均GDP为研究指标,运用不平衡指数和空间统计模型对江苏省区域经济发展水平进行定量研究,并结合GIS的空间分析功能,系统分析了江苏省区域经济发展时空差异及空间格局演化。结果表明:江苏省区域经济发展在空间上具有较强的自相关性,在整体格局上呈现出一定的集聚态势,空间格局更多表现为苏南部分地区的高度集聚和苏北部分地区的集聚态势,成为江苏省区域经济发展的集聚核心区和低度集聚区,而苏中地区的集聚态势显得并不强烈。同时,针对区域经济自相关性发展趋势进行解释并指出以县域经济为单元的区域经济发展空间差异将长期存在。最后,构建空间数据模型对此种格局形成的原因进行空间统计学上的探讨,指出规模企业空间分布差异及人才空间分布差异是导致县域经济发展差异的主要因素,为区域经济差异分析提供了一种交互式的、可视化的新手段,进而为政府部门制定区域经济协调发展政策提供决策依据。     

我国C2C电子商务的地理格局及其演化机制

从空间计量经济学的角度,从省域和市域两个空间层次对中国的C2C电子商务发展极其演化机制进行实证研究。研究结果表明,中国的C2C电子商务发展存在由东部沿海到内陆地区梯度降低的空间分布趋势,空间集聚程度非常高,且对当地物流行业发展起到推动作用。C2C电子商务水平与当地的经济发达程度高度相关,社会经济观念的转变、居民受教育程度的提高、互联网相关技术的普及、物流业的迅猛发展以及适当的地方产业集聚等都是促进C2C电子商务发展的重要因素。     

比较创新体制与比较历史创新体制——开创比较经济学研究的新框架

近十几年来,建基于新制度经济学和博弈论的广泛影响,比较制度分析和历史制度分析在比较经济学领域已经成为最有影响的分析范式,但它在处理技术创新、制度演化和结构变迁等诸多问题上却存在着固有的缺陷。为了克服这些缺陷,本文以演化经济学的研究纲领为基础,提出了比较创新体制和比较历史创新体制作为比较经济学研究新框架的构想,简要说明了它在基础理论上与比较制度分析和历史制度分析所存在的重大差别,论述了这种新框架的概念、体系内容和意义所在,综述了相关研究的最新进展,并讨论了比较创新体制和比较历史创新体制的重大前沿问题。本文认为,比较创新体制和比较历史创新体制是我国创新型国家建设不可或缺的研究工具,它为比较经济学的新发展提供了最有价值的新范式和新框架,比较经济学界不应该把其发展排除在视野之外。     

我国城市化动力机制探析

我国正在经历一个城市化飞速发展的时期。城市化不仅是中国经济高速发展的引擎,而且也深刻改变着中国社会的政治经济结构。通过对我国城市化历程和动力机制的简要回顾,探讨了城市化的本质,分析了影响我国城市化健康发展的体制机制因素以及推进城市化进一步发展的主要动力。     

Dependent relationships between Chinese commodity markets and the international financial market: Evidence from quantile time-frequency analysis

In this article, the quantile time–frequency method is utilized to study the dependence of Chinese commodities on the international financial market. The impacts of risk management and diversification benefits of different portfolios are examined by calculating the reduction in downside risk. Moreover, we estimate and compare Sharpe Ratios (SRs) and Generalized Sharpe Ratios (GSRs) based on the frequencies of the investigated portfolios. Our empirical results reveal a strong asymmetric response from Chinese commodity markets. Specifically, we find that gold is a safe-haven asset, and due to negative correlations found at lower quantiles in medium and long term, an increase in the USD index damages bull commodity markets but boosts bear conditions under long-term investments, and negative (positive) tail correlations with interest rates (IRs) in bull (bear) markets are observed. It is proven that WTI can decrease short-run risks while USD and GOLD are more efficient in the diversification of downside risk. Adding international commodities may not improve the returns of Chinese commodities at given risk levels in the short and medium term through SRs and GSRs. In brief, investors should consider these dependence structures and modes of risk management in terms of time and frequency.