对辽宁省社会信用体系建设的思考

社会信用体系建设是一项复杂的系统工程,涉及法律法规建设、征信行业监管、地方信用创建和行业信用建设等多项内容。随着全国信贷征信体系的日益完善,辽宁省信用体系建设取得积极进展,金融生态环境明显改善。但是,也存在信用信息尚未有效整合,守信激励和失信惩戒机制不完善等突出问题。因此,应协调发挥地方政府、人民银行等相关部门的作用,促进辽宁省社会信用体系建设的深入开展。     

汇率政策与利率水平传导机制的研究——基于抵补利率平价模型的实证分析

在资本自由流动和货币自由兑换下,货币市场和外汇市场相互作用、相互影响,汇率与利率之间存在灵活有效的传导机制。本文从汇率政策的概念入手,借助抵补利率平价模型,指出中国利率和汇率之间有效的传导机制尚未形成。之后对其原因进行了分析,并提出疏通人民币汇率政策传导机制的有关政策建议。     

Market reaction to second-hand news: inside the attention-grabbing hypothesis

This article investigates whether the market reaction to second-hand information is due to price pressure or information dissemination. We use the perspective of attention grabbing to analyse the market reaction to the dissemination of analysts’ recommendations published in print media. This perspective is able to explain the asymmetric market reaction to ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ advice, which is difficult to rationalize within the price pressure hypothesis. We base our empirical analysis on the content of a weekly column in the most important Italian financial newspaper, which publishes past information and analysts’ recommendations on listed companies. Our findings show asymmetric price and volume reactions on the publication day. Contrary to previous evidence, we document a positive relationship between the number of analysts quoted in the column and the price (volume) increase associated with positive recommendations. Because the weekly columns seem to simply attract investors’ attention, with no additional new information, observing a reaction positively related to the column’s salience (proxied by the number of quoted analysts) is natural. In addition, we find that the market reaction is higher when the order size is lower, i.e., when individual investors’ trades constitute a higher fraction of the total trading activity in the market.     

加快发展消费金融市场促进经济发展方式转变

当前,国际金融危机的影响仍在向更深领域蔓延,全球经济复苏步伐缓慢,部分经济体债务负担沉重,西方贸易投资保护主义有再次抬头的趋势。在此形势下,加快发展我国的消费金融市场,对于刺激居民消费需求,大规模启动国内消费市场,促进经济发展方式由传统的投资和出口拉动型向消费驱动型转变,具有较强的现实意义。为此,在深入分析我国消费金融市场发展的现状和不足,并在借鉴西方发达国家的先进经验的基础上,提出加快发展我国消费金融市场的政策建议。     

An Examination of the Differential Impact of Regulation FD on Analysts' Forecast Accuracy

Regulation fair disclosure (FD) requires companies to publicly disseminate information, effectively preventing the selective pre‐earnings announcement guidance to analysts common in the past. We investigate the effects of Regulation FD's reducing information disparity across analysts on their forecast accuracy. Proxies for private information, including brokerage size and analyst company‐specific experience, lose their explanatory power for analysts' relative accuracy after Regulation FD. Analyst forecast accuracy declines overall, but analysts that are relatively less accurate (more accurate) before Regulation FD improve (deteriorate) after implementation. Our findings are consistent with selective guidance partially explaining variation in the forecasting accuracy of analysts before Regulation FD.     

Relationship Between Analyst Forecast Properties and Equity Bid‐Ask Spreads and Depths Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

Abstract:   We study the relationships between three variables which proxy for the ex‐ante level of information asymmetry – forecast dispersion, forecast revision volatility, and the level of analyst coverage, and equity bid‐ask spread and depth changes around quarterly earnings releases. Kim and Verrecchia (1994) suggest that earnings releases increase the level of information asymmetry and lower the level of liquidity in the security market. Using both an OLS regression framework and a simultaneous equations model, we examine whether equity bid‐ask spreads increase and depths decrease as the level of information asymmetry increases. Our results indicate that spreads are higher (relative to a non‐event period) around earnings announcements when information asymmetry is more pronounced; however, depths are lower only on the day following the announcement when there is greater information asymmetry. Relative spreads have a significant positive relation with both forecast dispersion and revision volatility and a significant negative relation with analyst coverage. Relative depths have a significant negative relation with forecast dispersion and a significant positive relation with analyst coverage. Our findings indicate that the equity specialist adjusts both spreads and depths when confronting informed traders around earnings releases and that these adjustments are more pronounced when the level of information asymmetry is greater.     

Public Predisclosure Information, Firm Size, Analyst Following, and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements

Abstract:   This study examines the effects of public predisclosure information on market reactions to earnings announcements. We develop an empirical measure of public predisclosure information impounded in price prior to earnings announcements by cumulating abnormal returns on public news release dates during the quarter. Consistent with prior literature, we document a negative association between this measure and market reactions to subsequent earnings announcements. Moreover, we find that after controlling for this measure, firm size and analyst following are significantly positively associated with market reactions to earnings announcements. Contrary to prior empirical evidence, our results suggest that, after controlling for actual predisclosure information impounded in price, market reactions to earnings announcements are greater in magnitude for larger, more widely-followed firms than for smaller, less widely-followed firms.     

中国保险费率市场化路径研究

放松保险费率管制,实行费率市场化是世界保险发达国家和地区保险实践的必经之路。我国从2001年开始进行车险费率市场化的探索,保险费率市场化改革发展至今,主观因素与客观条件日趋成熟。根据当前我国保险市场发展的现实,放松费率管制应是一个逐步的、渐进的过程。金融约束理论对实现保险费率市场化的路径选择提供了很好的指导意义,在此过程中,建立一套完整的监管体系,提高保险公司的自身发展,完善与费率市场化相配套的法律法规是十分必要的。     

信息的中介抑或遮掩：企业家精神与公司估值——基于分析师跟踪视角

以2010—2017年上市公司为样本,研究企业家精神对企业估值的影响及其影响路径机制。研究发现:企业家精神能够有效提升企业估值,且在民营企业中更为显著;从信号传递理论角度分析,发现分析师在企业家的经营精神和创新创业精神与企业估值之间发挥信息中介作用,而对战略决策精神与企业估值之间却起到了信息遮掩作用。进一步研究发现,市场化程度越高越利于企业家精神发挥的积极性,并加强分析师信息中介效应和缓解其遮掩效应。研究结果为民营上市公司如何提升企业的市场价值提供了经验证据,并提出政策建议推进企业家精神的发展和积极作用的发挥。     

Do Firms Use M&A Business to Pay for Analyst Coverage?

We find that acquirers in merger and acquisition (M&A) transactions are more likely to hire as advisors investment banks that provided analyst coverage for the acquirer prior to the transaction. We also find that compared to a matched control group of banks, the advisor banks are less likely to terminate and more likely to initiate analyst coverage of the acquirer after the transaction. Finally, the advisor banks that initiate coverage after the transaction collect higher fees. These findings suggest that firms value analyst coverage and use M&A advisor appointments and advisor fees to compensate for it.